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Nadeau & Nicoletti: Gulfstream Thursday Championship Meet Opening Day Selections

by Gulfstream Park

November 27, 2024

Brian Nadeau analysis:

Race 1: A happy Thanksgiving and a happy kickoff to the Championship Meet, as we embark on another huge winter of world-class racing full of key Grade 1 events at Gulfstream Park. The call in the opener goes to 10 BRITISH EMPRESS, who seems better than these, has the speed to negotiate a tough draw, and will like getting back to the turf too. You have to respect the NY turf form of both 3 DUBAWI WOWIE and 1 AMERICAN KESTREL, with the former getting a big trainer switch off the Abreu claim (2-for-9), while the latter has speed and takes a solid class drop as well.

SELECTIONS: 10-3-1-6

Race 2: The rail isn’t ideal, but 1 COME DREAM WITH ME seems tons better than these, and with Irad named, it’s breakthrough time. The main (only?) danger may be 7 SCALLYWAG, who figures tighter second-off the break after running 3rd in a very slow race. The added ground should suit 2 FIGHT TIL DAWN, a tough-to-trust 3rd at 54-1 last time in his dirt debut.

SELECTIONS: 1-7-2-4

Race 3: It's Best Bet time with 4 OURS FOR SURE, as he just faced much better, meets a meek field, and gets a weight break as well. If nothing else, 3 TIZ RUDDY BEN comes in off a win, which is never a bad thing in these low-level claimers. Not sure what to make of 6 SPLIT STRIKE, as he’s been off since May, plummets in class, and has never tried Tapeta either.

SELECTIONS: 4-3-6-1

Race 4: Let’s see if 2 NEBLINA can make up the 2 1/2 length he was behind 1 XENON last time, and there’s reason to think he can, as Gonzalez is back training, the blinkers go on, and he did well to draw outside his main rival too. No doubt they all have to beat 1 XENON, but the rail is a problem, and with Irad up, the price will be mighty short as well. Maybe the MSW drop wakes up 3 IN OTHER WORDS, as the debut two-back was solid, and he drew better today after a no-show from a wide draw last time.

SELECTIONS: 2-1-3-4

Race 5: It’s Longshot time with 1 WAITTILMIDNITEHOUR, who rises while seeking three straight, will get plenty of pace to rally into, and gets ace turf rider Ruiz too. Lynch has already saddled two stakes winners here in the last few weeks and started last year’s Championship Meet off white-hot, so 11 MIYAKO figures tough after finally breaking through—in very fast time too—in Indiana. A troubled trip ruined 9 ORDEROFTHEPHOENIX’S chances last time, but that closing 3rd two-back says she’s a player with a fair go of it here.

SELECTIONS: 1-11-9-2

Race 6: You don’t see Paco named by Dwoskin often, so there may be some intent on 6 STARSHIP POINTS, who cost 60k, hasn’t missed an AM beat in six weeks, and meets (seemingly) a field there to be taken. Irad is on 7 MARTY’S GAL, and that 10/27 Belmont work was huge, so she’s live, even though Terranova is just 6% on debut. Fading 1 WITH KINDNESS, who has failed at tiny odds against weaker, and again drew inside, where she’s been breaking slow.

SELECTIONS: 6-7-1-4

Race 7: Stabbing with 1 POINT LIAM, as the lone Tapeta race here was a big 3rd against better, and he’s worked well for his first start since August. Both 5 CADAMOSTO and 6 THREE ZERO make a bit more sense, but the former will be an underlay with Irad and has never tried the local Tapeta (though he’s 2-for-3 elsewhere), and the latter never wins at 2-for-32, so you’re allowed to look around for more value.

SELECTIONS: 1-5-6-3

Race 8: The Wait a While is all about 2 CIVETTA, who looks like she lays over these on class off that neck 2nd in the G3 Matron at BAQ, is bred to love two turns, and drew perfectly inside as well. You should get some value underneath with 3 SAIL THESEVEN SEAS, as the turf route MSW win at Lrl last time was sharp, though she meets eons better here. That was some debut from 5 BRUTALLY HONEST, who closed like a wild horse to win for fun, and has an edge as a local turf winner too.

SELECTIONS: 2-4-5-7


Best Bet: R3: #4 Ours for Sure (5-2)
* Drops after facing much better
* Well-drawn with tactical speed
* Gets 7-9 pounds on all but one

Longshot: R5: #1 Waittilmidnitehour (12-1)
* Drew well looking for three straight
* Stalker in a race with plenty of speed
* Turf ace Ruiz gets aboard for Trombo

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Ron Nicoletti Analysis

Race 1:
1 American Kestrel
6 Boot’s On the Moon
3 Dubawi Wowie

Race 2:
1 Come Dream With Me
7 Scallywag
2 Fight Til Dawn

Race 3:
6 Spilt Strike
4 Ours for Sure
2 Vinicio

Race 4:
1 Xenon
4 La Dinamita
2 Neblina

Race 5:
8 Breezero (LS)
11 Miyako
1 Waittilmidnitehour

Race 6:
1 With Kindness
2 Just a Philly
5 Time Leap

Race 7
6 Three Zero
5 Cadamosto (IRE)
3 Loyal Louie

Race 8: The Wait a While
2 Civetta (BB)
7 Bellavinino
12 Smart Union


Best Bet: R8 2 Civetta:
Stretches out around 2 turns after the game 2nd in the 6-furlong G3 Matron. She’s bred to love the distance and beyond

Longshot: R5 8 Breezero:
Moves to turf for Safie Joseph Jr. after reeling off consecutive wins on Tapeta. Saffie & Jaramillo are 5 for 8 (63%) together