I get it. By the time the Kentucky Derby has come and gone, you’re either riding high with a flush bankroll or ready to crash and call it a night after the most exhausting week in American racing. However, if you’re up for a nightcap, you’re in for a treat.

After a couple weeks of giving spot plays at Hong Kong, I’ve realized there’s a better way to help players at a circuit with so much variance. It’s time to start disclosing all my bets for the card so you have some visibility into not only my strongest plays, but some sneaky price chasers that balance one another out.

Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – May 4

Past Performances 
Speed Pro Pace Projections 

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

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Race 2 | 1200M (6 Furlongs) | Class 5
Exacta – 1 w/ 5,7,12

Notes: My power ratings have the 1 – LUCKY MAN firmly on top of this field, but at a price of just 4/1 on the morning line I want to play up some better prices I think have a fair shake at getting up. This Class 5 isn’t a very strong field, but my top choice looked much improved after his first race returning to these ranks, and there’s potential for plenty of chaos underneath.

Race 3 | 1200M (6 Furlongs) | Class 4
Win – 5
Quinella Box – 1,5,12

Notes: Making jus this second career start, top choice 5 – BULL ATTITUDE has been tabbed with a lovely 11/1 morning line after his debut rated at the top of the field. However, with only one race on the resume, we can bake in some potential to compound winnings or insure ourselves in the Quinella. Our ML favorite here is a first-time starter, and in a circuit like Hong Kong I’m more than happy to pack in prices against a horse making their debut.

Race 4 | 1600M (1 Mile) | Class 2
Win – 5
Exacta – 5 w/ 1,2,7

Notes: The local oddsmakers and I disagree on this field, and as a gambler I wouldn’t want it any other way. My power ratings have the 5 – HONG LOK GOF as the clear top choice. Not only that, but the numbers point to some others as being not far behind at much bigger ML prices. I like those chances. If I’m right, I’m right big, and if I’m wrong, then I’m wrong small. In Hong Kong, that’s the name of the game for the non-CAW player like me.

Race 6 | 1600M (1 Mile) | Class 4
Exacta – 3 w/ 7

Notes: Now that I’m done disagreeing with the morning line, the folks do such a fine job of course, let’s make the most of a likely winner at a short price. 3 – ETALON OR is 2/1 on the morning line and I believe this three-year-old is a clear top choice. However, I really like the potential of 7 – WROTE A NEW PAGE in his fourth start. I think he has run much bigger than his record suggests, and the numbers confirm that hunch. Let’s play him underneath the chalk.

Race 7 | 1400M (7 Furlongs) | Class 4
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,6

Notes: It’s possible that my power ratings are giving too much credence to a horse dropping in class. When I see a morning line of 21/1 and a rating close to the best in this group, I know I need to at least take my shot. We’ll key the 1 – REZEKI with two chalky options and hope the class relief is exactly what this horse needs to snag a top two spot.

Race 8 | 2400M (1 � Miles) | Group 3 Stakes
Win – 1

Notes: 1 – FIVE G PATCH (no relation to FIVE G from what I can tell) rates at the top of the field in this Group 3 stakes in the card’s headline race. The distance is going to be a concern, and the morning line reflects that, but every horse in the field is coming off a race in a lower class. I don’t believe we have a great idea how they will pan out against one another, and without a clear winner on paper I like the numbers pointing to a potential bomb.

Race 9 | 1400M (7 Furlongs) | Class 4
Win – 1
Exacta – 1 w/ 3,7

Notes: 1 – SPIRIT OF PEACE is the ratings’ top choice, and we can only hope to maintain off odds close to the morning line of 5/1. If we end up getting short on the board in the Win pool, we have two salacious lines of 26/1 and 11/1 that rate highly in the field with the potential to make our Exacta one we’d regret not playing.