We’re back at Happy Valley for our usual mid-week extravaganza and hoping to wake up to a few winning tickets! As per tradition, Happy Valley is full of races with lots of variance and plenty of worthy competitors at solid morning line prices. Let’s dive in and see what we can find!

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – June 11
Past Performances 
Speed Pro Pace Projections

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.

Race 1 | 1650M | Class 5
Quinella Box – 4,7,10

Notes: 5 WINDICATOR FAMILY sticks out in the power rankings but has a subpar record running on anything other than a firm turf course. He is 6-1-1-1 on a firm course, and 13-0-0-0 on a merely “good” course. The expected going is good tomorrow, according to the South China Morning Post, and it looks like a good time to play against him. 4 SMILING EMPEROR runs in a yo-yo pattern and looks due for a bigger run tomorrow. 7 PODIUM gets a top mount, and this son of Medaglia d’Oro has been back on track since a disappointing run at six furlongs. 10 TRADITION shows some strong late pace figures, and this Frankel gelding could find himself in the mix. Let’s play a Quinella and hope the odds are in our favor.

Race 2 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – 1 FLYING TING LOK

Notes: Top choice in this field is coming off of a field-best 116 Burke Power figure and has been doing nothing but improving since his debut in Hong Kong. They debuted this gelding in Class 3 and after just three unsuccessful starts, he finds himself dropped down to Class 4. I think the drop is premature, and he’ll demonstrate why firing from the rail and never looking back.

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 9 LESLIE
Exacta – 8 w/ 9

Notes: 8 SOARING BRONCO has been running extremely well and finds himself in a group he should out-class. However, with a scratch to the son of Mendelssohn, Zetta Force, an alternate with consistently solid speed figures and Zac Purton in the irons draws in. With a morning line of 22/1, I can’t pass up a touch on this horse to pull out the upset. In case we’re close, but no cigar, let’s back him up with the clear choice on top in the Exacta.

Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 5 NEVER TOO SOON

Notes: I must just be chasing alternates on this card, but I’ve found another that I like at a big price! 5 NEVER TOO SOON runs in a yo-yo pattern, putting up big figures and then taking a step back in the next race. According to the pattern in my figures, he’s on the up-swing of his trajectory. The pace looks fair, and this eight-year-old is too tempting at 28/1 on the morning line not to chase.

Race 6 | 1600M | Class 2
Quinella Box – 1,6,8

Notes: Our morning line favorite, 4 HONG LOK GOLF, has been running well, but not quite putting up the figures I’d expect from a 9/5 ML. Surprisingly, 8 STEPS AHEAD finds himself the third choice in this Class 2 battle, although my numbers have his upside as tremendously better than most others. Along those same lines, 1 HELENE FEELING and 6 C P BRAVE look like longshots but are trending in a way that leads me to believe there’s still plenty on the table for both. Let’s play against the short price and box these three in the Quinella.

Race 8 | 1600M | Class 3
Win – 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO
Exacta Box – 1 w/ 5

Notes: Hong Kong’s leading trainer of the last 90 days is John Size, and John Size has two long shots on the board in this Class 3, mile-long bout. My numbers favor the shorter of the two from his barn, 1 A AMERIC TE SPECSO (21/1 ML), and I’d play this horse at these odds every day of the week if I could. 5 KING OF FIGHTERS (5/2 ML) gets Zac Purton, the best of Hong Kong’s jockeys, and looks to be a clear second-choice in my numbers. Racing is hard to predict, and I like making money, so I’m going to box these two to finish first and second and hope my price play is the one to hit the wire first.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 1 CHATEAUNEUF
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 5,7,10

Notes: 1 CHATEAUNEUF (9/2 ML) seems to be getting disrespected in the finale of Wednesday’s card after coming up just short in his last try. This horse appears to be the class of the field according to my numbers, and I’m looking at a fairly confident win play here. However, I like the looks and ratings of some bigger prices in the field, and want to make the most of the potential. 5 NORDIC DRAGON (11/1), 7 LOOKING BRIGHT (13/1), and 10 GOLDEN RISE (54/1) are all in the mix in the second tier of the field, and I like their chances as much or more than morning line favorite 4 KING MILES (5/2).