The end of the Hong Kong season is approaching with only seven race days left until the break, but with a long season ending also comes a growing set of recent data to refine and improve my projections and Prime Burke Ratings. We’re back in the city at Happy Valley for some mid-week action, and I’m excited to debut some updates to the Ratings that I hope will give us a more complete picture of our runners and put a little cash back in our pockets.

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – June 25

Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections 

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4

Win – 3 HEROIC MASTER
Exacta – 3 w/ 1,11

Notes: Putting my new pace figures to the test early, 3 HEROIC MASTER (6/1 ML) appears to have a huge advantage in the Late Pace figures and happens to top the overall Prime Burke Ratings in this Class 4 field. He dropped down from Class 3 two races back going five furlongs, and the extra furlong plus class relief should line up for this gelding to get his first win of the season. I’m expecting him to be pretty far off the pace early and start to make his move coming around the final turn. Ahead of him should be some combination of 11 BLING BLING GENIUS (33/1 ML), 1 CHARMING BABE (21/1 ML), and 8 FLYING WROTE (21/1 ML). Of the front runners, 1 CHARMING BABE and 11 BLING BLING GENIUS rate the highest in the Prime Burke Ratings and I’ll play them underneath in the Exacta.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4

Win/Place – 5 WRITTEN CASA
Quinella – 1 w/ 5,9

Notes: Two horses stand out in the Prime Burke Ratings, 5 WRITTEN CASA (21/1 ML) and 1 FUN ELITE (7/2 ML). Top choice, 5 WRITTEN CASA, rates far better than his Morning Line suggests. He dropped down to Class 4 with Zac Purton aboard and ran an underwhelming race at 1 1/16 miles. He’s cutting back to six furlongs here, and I think his class experience is being overlooked in addition to his raw Prime Burke Ratings. At the Morning Line price, I love this play across the board and will be combining him with two other standouts to complete a Quinella keyed to the 1 FUN ELITE who should be at a deservingly short price.

Race 5 | 1000M | Class 3

Win – 1 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS
Exacta – 1 w/ 2

Notes: Our top choice in this Class 3 bout is five-year-old gelding 1 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS (7/1 ML), who is looking for his first win of the season. Even with the not-so-great recent form finding the Winner’s Circle, the Prime Burke Ratings narrowly put this runner at the top of the field. What I’m more intrigued by is his potential trip. He won’t be on the lead, the first call accolades should go to 9 PARENTS’ LOVE (2/1 ML), but his mid-race and late pace are outstanding combined with a solid early pace rating. The field will be firing into a long straightaway before hitting the only turn in the race, and his position in the tenth post should play nicely with his pressing style. If our front-runner gets challenged and fades like I expect him to, the final push should open up and with it a spot in line to cash. To round out the Exacta, 2 SEASONS WIT (4/1 ML) should find some room on the rail if he can navigate traffic and get up for a top two spot.

Race 7 | 1650M | Class 4

Win – 4 CAN’T GO WONG

Notes: I feel like I’ve been chasing this horse for the entire meet, but he rates so well I can’t help but look twice at this seven-year-old gelding whenever he’s drawn into a race. This time around, he’s cutting back to 1 1/16 miles and tops the field in the Prime Burke Ratings. His late race ability has been his biggest concern, and I’m hoping the cut in distance finally gets him home at a nice 13/1 Morning Line. I’m going to play it simple and small since this gelding has burned me before, but if we finally get home, it should be for a day-changing score.

Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3

Exacta – 3 w/ 7,5

Notes: 3 AESTHETICISM (5/2 ML) looks like a clear standout for Pierre Ng, whose barn isn’t exactly on fire as of late. I expect the pace to be fair with a possible early bolt from 4 OUTGATE (52/1 ML), and our top choice should be set up for
an easy close around a moderately paced field. Alongside him down the stretch, I like 7 HARMONY GALAXY (11/1 ML) and 5 HAMERON (13/1 ML) to eat up a few spots late and hopefully find that second spot behind our short-priced top choice.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3

Exacta – 2,3 w/ 2,3,5,9

Notes: The finale on Wednesday’s card appears to be wide open. A six-furlong bout in the Class 3 division features a few big prices that I think are capable of huge runs and huge payouts. 2 HAPPY FAT CAT (13/1 ML) intrigues me the most with a pace setup that should help him greatly. 7 DRAGON FOUR SEAS (15/2 ML) will be placed forward and potentially in a pace battle with 12 EVERSTAR (11/2 ML). If those two get into a duel, I think this race falls apart completely. The best combination of pressing style and finishing ability is in the hands of Matthew Poon aboard 2 HAPPYF AT CAT. Also, in the mix in the case of a mess up front are 3 POWER KOEPP (7/1 ML), 5 KYRUS DRAGON (11/1 ML) and 9 EASON (99/1 ML). Let’s make sure they’re all on our ticket and hope we see a 99/1 going bombs away to close out the card.

Good luck!