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Jeff Siegel: Saratoga Narrative | Sunday, July 7, 2025

by Jeff Siegel

July 6, 2025

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Saratoga 1: Post: 1:10 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 6-One Hundred Ninety

Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: One Hundred Ninety was a beaten favorite in the Chick Lang Stakes on Preakness day but finds a reasonable spot to make amends in this second level allowance main track sprint. Drawn comfortably outside and reunited with “win rider” J. Lezcano, the son of Dialed catches a field without too much zip and projects to be the controlling speed, or at the very least find himself in a soft stalking position. A bullet half mile breeze since raced should have him on edge, so at 9/5 on the morning line the T. Morley-trained colt appears to be a logical rolling exotic single.


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Saratoga Race: 2. Post: 1:44 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 4-Chumners

Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: This is a little bit of an educated guess, but we suspect Chummers will turn up a live item in this straight maiden dash for juveniles. Sold for a ham sandwich ($6,000) as a yearling, he nevertheless debuts protected by a trainer who has superb stats with first time starters, and the work tab, including a bullet half mile breeze (:47bg) from the gate a couple of weeks ago, may have tipped his ability. With F. Prat taking the call in an unclassified field, this son of Combatant should come out running, so let’s go for a gamble at or near his morning line of 7/2.


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Saratoga 3: Post: 2:18 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 5-Miwa

Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: Miwa (GB) was overmatched in the New York S.-G1 behind She Feels Pretty and never figured in the running but certainly isn’t today. The English-bred filly displayed useful form in France last year before being imported and if she duplicates her best races overseas in this second level allowance turf marathon the T. Pletcher-trained 4-year-old should outclass this field. With the switch to L. Saez, the daughter of Siyoun is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is worth backing on the tote at or near that price.


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