We’re back in the Valley for a mid-week card as the end of the season quickly approaches in Hong Kong. Stacked with lower-level races, we’re starting to get some angles from trainers running back quickly before the meet ends and runners finding their form late in the year. Let’s see if we can take advantage of the day and get the bankroll locked and loaded ahead of Saratoga’s opening day this Thursday.

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – July 9
Past Performances 
Speed Pro Pace Projections 

Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 2 | 1650M | Class 5
Win – 12 BEAU GOSSE
Exacta Key Box – 12 w/ 3,4

Notes: The pace makes the race, as they say, and I think the pace is going to give a shot to a potential price in the second race on Wednesday’s card. There are a few runners who have shown an ability to go forward early, but no clear-cut frontrunners are to be found. With a slow pace, I like 12 BEAU GOSSE (7/1 ML) to be right near a slow lead with enough of a late kick to take over. His Prime Burke Rating (PBR) averages a bit lower than the two more likely winners we’ll key him with in the Exacta (3 COURIER MAGIC (9/5 ML) and 4 WINDICATOR FAMILY (3/1 ML)), but his morning line odds caught my eye.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Daily Double – 7 w/ 3

Notes: 7 FLOWING RICHES (1/1 ML) has put up two strong starts in his first two career races and looks poised to out-run the field here at Happy Valley. The PBR figures are very much in his favor and his form is clear-cut. With odds reflecting a strong start to his career, I’m looking to a multi-race bet to make the most of his potential. In Race 4 (Class 4 | 1000M) I’m leaning on longshot 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL (21/1 ML) to beat the on-paper favorites of 1 LEAN MASTER and 10 DAY DAY VICTORY. At his best, CRYSTAL POWERFUL is the fastest horse in the race and cuts back to five furlongs where he is 2-for-3 lifetime. Out of American-bred VICENNALIA (by MORE THAN READY), I like this runner’s sprinting form and think the morning line is too far off.

Race 4 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL
Exacta Key Box – 3 w/ 1,10

Notes: Continuing our Daily Double analysis, I’ll be keying this longshot in an Exacta with the two most likely winners by the numbers and playing to win. If we can hit this sequence of bets, our week should be made.

Race 5 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 1 CAPITAL LEGEND

Notes: 1 CAPITAL LEGEND (5/1 ML) has been on a three-race streak that impresses in the PBR figures. What I like the most about this pattern, besides it coming on a varying degree of surface conditions, is that he hasn’t been on a straight rise in ratings. He has shown a flash but put up a steady figure in the other two races. In other words, I’m not putting him in the “three-and-out” camp expecting a big regression. On the other hand, ML favorite 9 SMART CITY (5/2 ML) spiked in his last outing and I expect a regression to his somewhat unimpressive mean. On paper, it’s down to these two, and I like the form and price of top choice CAPITAL LEGEND.

Race 8 | 1800M | Class 2
Quinella Box – 3,4,6,10

Notes: Playing the figures and the odds, I think a handful of runners have a legitimate shot at winning this nine-furlong bout in the Class 2 division. 3 EMBRACES (10/1 ML) and 4 BRAVEHEARTS (8/1 ML) stand out in their recent form, but there’s a lot of potential for a big PBR rating from 6 JUMBO LEGEND (21/1 ML) and 10 WINNING WING (5/1 ML). Let’s fade the 2/1 ML favorite, whose figures don’t stand out against the rest of this field, and hope to get a couple of prices home late on the card.

Good luck!