After a break that felt painfully long, we’re back and racing in Hong Kong as the new season kicks off at Sha Tin this weekend. With a revamped Prime Burke Ratings system that provides probabilities to finish in the top three and projects lengths beaten or won by, we’re champing at the bit to get back in action. Let’s take a look at the opening day card and see if we can jump in line to cash some tickets.

Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – September 7

Past Performances 

Speed Pro Pace Projections 

Top 5 Most Likely Winners

Race 1 | #2 COLONEL – 41.7% Win Prob.
Race 3 | #1 KA YING RISING – 63.8% Win Prob.
Race 4 | #3 SUPER STRONG KID – 65.5% Win Prob.
Race 8 | #7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT – 31% Win Prob.
Race 9 | #11 BULB GENERAL – 47.2% Win Prob.

//

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5

Win – #2 COLONEL
Exacta Box – 2,12
Quinella – 2 w/ 3,4,9,12

Notes: The 22/1 ML seems to be disrespecting one of our most-likely winners on the card, but this 9-year-old is projected to make a splash on the board. With a price like that, and hopefully it holds when the tote opens, I love this runner’s chances keyed in a Quinella with our other contenders on top of an outright win play.


Race 2 | 1600M | Class 5

Win – #10 PERFECT PEACH
Quinella Box – 3,10,14

Notes: My win play, PERFECT PEACH, is projected second highest to win this Class 4 bout but at 35/1 on the morning line and Zac Purton in the irons, I am chasing this price. Most-likely winner, GOLDEN FAIRY, needs to be included on our tickets alongside MR ALADDIN who could pair up with our big price to make the Quinella a day-maker.


Race 5 | 1400M | Class 4

Win – #12 SIGHT DREAMER

Notes: My top projection in Race 5 happens to sport a lovely morning line of 15/2 and gets a good draw from the third post for leading trainer, John Size. This 5-year-old gelding will only be carrying 120 pounds, and my models favor a weight handicap in sprints more so than routes. Going just seven furlongs, I think SIGHT DREAMER has more than a fair chance at finding the wire first.


Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #1 SUNDAY’S SERENADE
Quinella– 1 w/ 3,5,6
Trifecta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,5,6

Notes: Playing the price here, I like SUNDAY’S SERENADE at a morning line of 54/1 to be one of the surprises on the card. There is some inexperienced talent in this field, and the natural variance of horse racing lends me bake in some reassurance. However, recent form has led the local line makers to rate this horse as the highest in the field and my models are following suit.


Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #2 FANTASTIC FUN
Quinella – 2 w/ 10

Notes: Finally, a son of JUSTIFY looks solid enough to be worth a bet in Hong Kong. A surprising number of his progeny are running in Hong Kong, and far more often than not they struggle against the locals. However, I like FANTASTIC FUN to buck the trend in this six-furlong dash. Let’s pair him up with a shorter-priced COLOURFUL WINNER, who I have as most likely to take this race, to snag a well-priced Quinella.


Race 8 | 1400M | Class 2

Win - #7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT
Quinella – 7 w/ 8,9

Notes: My best bet on the card, one of my top five most likely winners is priced as a huge overlay according to my model. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT will be carrying 18 pounds less than the morning line favorite and gets a preferred post from just outside the rail. His neighbor in the gate, MICKLEY, appears to be formidable as well so we’ll make sure we pair those two up in the Quinella and bank a little on our top choice making the better of the two campaigns.
Good luck!