We’re back to Happy Valley after back-to-back cards at Sha Tin! With nine races on the day, your morning can get off to a great start if I can put together a few winning tickets. I like a few clear-cut choices and one particular longshot you need to be aware of late in the day. Let’s take a look at the card and dig up a few winners to pad the week’s bankroll.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – October 8
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather 

Race 2 | 1650M | Class 4

Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,12
Grade: A

Notes: QUANTAM PATCH is the highest rated horse in this field and deserving of the 2/1 Morning Line. Given the short price, and the likelihood that more money will come in on this gelding, I like turning to the Exacta to try to find a decent price and capitalize on the opinion. AMAZING AWARD was in great form before the break in the racing season, and has shown positive patterns on this course, in particular. His ratings in my model put him in the second tier of the field alongside ATOMIC BEAUTY who also has a near-win going this distance over the “C+3” course at Happy Valley. Given the potential changes and growth for each runner in the offseason, I am going to play this as an Exacta Key Box and root for an upset.


Race 5 | 1000M | Class 4

Quinella – 7 w/ 1,4
Grade: B

Notes: I’m going to take a bit of a different approach in this race. Often, five-furlong races in Hong Kong are raced in a straight dash from gate to wire with no turns. On this card, they’re running the “C+3” course which means this 1000 Meter race is going to have a turn in it. Do I think it completely overhauls all the performances run on other courses? Of course not. However, HAPPY UNITED has run on this course somewhat recently and finished a length and a half behind in a similar contest. He’s carrying seven pounds less in this attempt at the same course, and I think his pressing style will play well with an outer post and a turn to play off. I’ll play him with two of the more highly rated horses in the field in the Quinella and hope his 13/1 Morning Line stays with us until the tote closes.


Race 6 | 1650M | Class 3

Win - #1 EMBRACES
Exacta Box – 1 w/ 4
Grade: B

Notes: Top choice, EMBRACES, had his season tune-up on September 10th dropping down to Class 3 and just ran out of track. They’re going to take three turns this time around, and I like this stalking horse to conserve energy early while the field battles it out over each turn before opening up a lane for this gelding to dash home. Near the front of the field, I think PRESTIGE GOOD should be able to press through the Happy Valley course, as he as shown more than enough ability to do at a mile or longer. I expect these two to emerge from this field with two different styles to upset this field that doesn’t seem to have a clear-cut standout. EMBRACES has been tabbed with a 7/1 Morning Line, and if I can hold onto that price, I think this race could be a serious day-maker.


Race 8 | 1200M | Class 3

Win - #5 SOVEREIGN FUND
Exacta Box – 1 w/ 5
Grade: A

Notes: If there is one race on the card that I think is primed for a massive price, it’s this one. SOVEREIGN FUND is firmly at the top of my model’s ratings, but is coming into the race with a 21/1 Morning Line. WINGS OF WAR shows up as second-best to my top choice, and he sports a 16/1 Morning Line. SOVEREIGN FUND was in great form rounding out last season, and was held up to coast home in his season debut after running a length off the lead through two calls. He seems to be healthy as they run him back four weeks later, and I think if he looks anything like he did last season, he should be able to clear this field and get home in a way that makes the local oddsmakers question their process. WINGS OF WAR is never more than a length or two away from a victory and his raw figures rate very highly related to this field. I’m willing to box these two in the Exacta since both have a price worthy of chasing, but SOVEREIGN FUND is my upset pick for the day.

Good luck!