Romantic Warrior made his return for a gallop at Sha Tin ahead of his clash with Triple Crown winner, Voyage Bubble, in the G1 Hong Kong Cup. The big names are buzzing in Hong Kong as we build up to what looks like an inevitably huge December 14 card at Sha Tin. James McDonald is back for six mounts on the midweek card at Happy Valley, and we’re hoping to get dialed in with plenty of race days to go before we have to tackle the marquee.

Let’s see what is in store this Wednesday at Happy Valley.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – November 12
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather 

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4
Win/Place - #5 FORERUNNER
Grade: B

Notes: #5 FORERUNNER is certainly not a mainstay in the winner’s circle, but tabbed with a Morning Line of 16/1 I think this six-year-old gelding has plenty to like. First and foremost, his late running style has benefited him far more in these mile-or-longer bouts than the seven furlongs he has been running lately. In two tries, he has placed second by a length and sixth by five with both tries at this racetrack. The expected traffic upfront doesn’t scare me too much, and I don’t see a ton of class or quality in some of the shorter prices. Sometimes, you just have to play for the upside when the price is good enough. In this race, I think the price will end up being plenty high to take a shot at.


Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #8 SILVER SPURS
Grade: B

Notes: My database and models tell me a weight handicap is far more significant in sprints than in routes. In three tries with Britney Wong up, #8 SILVER SPURS has won twice and finished a half-length behind in the other. She’s going to have company aboard this gelding, but if she can manage her trip I think she has far more quality in her horse than her front-running companions. The tenth post draw will certainly be a challenge, but SILVER SPURS has been bet down somewhat consistently and I think his 5/1 Morning Line will end up being about spot-on as some others in this field with reputable connections take some money at the windows. Let’s hope his Morning Line holds and watch him glide on home leading a field he should be clearly better than.


Race 8 | 1800M | Class 3
Win - #2 EXCELLENCE VALUE
Grade: A

Notes: #2 EXCELLENCE VALUE is 3-1-2-0 going nine furlongs, just toppled Morning Line favorite #4 WROTE A NEW PAGE over this course at this distance, and will have the added confidence of Zac Purton in the irons. The five-year-old gelding is 8/1 on the Morning Line, which I don’t believe will hold up exactly, but anything close to 4/1 or better will be a no-brainer bet for me.


Race 9 | 1650M | Class 2
Win - #1 SPEED DRAGON
Grade: A

Notes: My speed ratings tell me that #1 SPEED DRAGON ran an absolute lights-out race in his return to Happy Valley to kick off his season campaign. He’s a tad more suited for longer races, but in a Class 2 bout going a mile at Sha Tin he just missed to a very talented JOHANNES BRAHMS. After being scratched out of what would have been his season finale, this six-year-old gelding came back to Happy Valley on October 15th and blew the doors down in what ended up being a very highly rated race. With any deep closer, the trip is going to come into play, but if he looks anything like he did on debut I think he’ll be roaring down the stretch eating up any deficit in his way to victory.

Good luck!