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Jeremy Plonk: Tampa Bay Downs Saturday Pick 4 Analysis

by Jeremy Plonk

January 31, 2026

Tampa Bay Downs has a pair of turf stakes co-features on Saturday and I’ll weave surrounding plays around those for a late pick 4 that is rather focused in terms of coverage.

Race 6: maiden

Promising group of 3-year-old fillies led by rookie raiders #6 Sorokin for Saffie Joseph and #1 Current Yield for Chad Brown. Logical debut-placed local runner #10 Princess Vekoma was well-backed at first asking and ran well enough to back again.


Race 7: Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes

#3 Quatrocento (pictured) appears to have a pace advantage and could wire this group under Julien Leparoux, who has been very good on these types over his career. #6 Win for the Money has a lot of class to fall back on as a middle-distance turf specialist.


Race 8: allowance

In what should be an either-or kind of race, #9 Disruptor returns from 10 months away and showed obvious talent to open his career before being sidelined. But #10 Littler Thunder was fantastic at first asking over the track and distance, wiring the field and putting more than 11 lengths on the third-place finisher. The pace doesn’t look overwhelming, so I’ll take him right back to outfoot the Pletcher “name” invader.


Race 9: Endeavor Stakes

Jockey Ben Curtis was one of the most profitable riders to back in 2025 stakes races and I love seeing him head to Tampa to ride #5 Aussie Girl for Will Walden. Perfectly spaced workout tab since being forced out of the race in December makes her fresh and fit. #11 Public Defender got too far behind a ridiculously fast pace last time but should be closer to the hunt in what projects a far, far more modest tempo. The outside post could spell ground loss. The speed could come from #10 Starship Impulsive, and the outside draw here feels less a hindrance given her running style. She should clear the others inside her in the initial stages coming out of the inner turf chute and onto the main course.

The Ticket:

6,1,10 with 3,6 with 10 with 5,10,11 = $9 for each $.50 play