Gulfstream Park handicapper Brian Nadeau provides his analysis for all 14 races on Saturday's Florida Derby Day card.

Race 1: Curlin Florida Derby Day kicks off with 3 SARATOGA FLASH getting the call off a tons-the-best win against lesser, and with Drexler hitting at 23% off-the-claim, he can handle the rise. They’re all looking up at 5 FAVORABLE SCENARIO, who will like getting back to the turf for Brown, is proven at the level, and has more upside than anyone here. The pair of AM works (viewed on XBTB) from 4 ASHLEY’S ARCHER have impressed, so he looks live off a September layoff, and his one win came on turf too. SELECTIONS: 3-5-4-2

Race 2: For a second it looked like 6 MONSTROCITY was going to keep going in his dirt debut before settling for 3rd, but that was a big run, he may not have to work as hard up front, and this is a bit of a mixed bag as well. If 4 BRIDGESONG improves on that solid 4th in his debut the rest are in trouble, as he middle moved before tiring late, in what was a fast race, and a key race also. Expecting better from the well-bred 9 SOVEREIGN LAW after a no-show debut where he was inside for much of the way. SELECTIONS: 6-4-9-2

Race 3: The Cutler Bay—the first of 10 stakes on the card—looks like a good spot for 5 LEARNTODISCOVER to make his U.S. debut after a solid 2yo campaign in Europe, and the way he outworked stablemate 2 IMMORTALISED (viewed on XBTV) on the 20th says he’s primed off the seven-month layoff. No doubt ‘Immortal has a recency edge, and a homecourt one too, as he’s 2 for-2 here, but the thinking is his ‘mate is just too much racehorse. The price will be right on 1 KNOTY KNICKS, who held his own against two of the best 3yos turfers on the ground all winter long, and always fires. SELECTIONS: 5-2-1-4

Race 4: The Appleton is all about the recent form of 6 QUATROCENTO, who exits a G3 win at Tampa, should trip out beautifully just off the speed, and will get first run on the favorite too. A six-month layoff after a trio of poor runs makes you wonder what we’ll get from 7 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS, who doesn’t appear to be the same horse who won the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf here 14 months ago and is worth trying to beat at short offs. Not sure a cutback to 1m will helps stretch running 9 BEACH GOLD pick up a win, but he’ll run on for a share. SELECTIONS: 6-7-9-4

Race 5: Florida breds 9 ROAR READY and 7 ADIOS NOW both enters off dominant state-bred wins, and while each could bounce facing open foes, this seems like the right kind of group to see if they can handle the rise, with the former preferred based on his off-the-pace. A spotty worktab makes 2 JIMMY’S DAILYS a bit iffy off a 11/1 layoff and trainer switch, so let’s watch one today. SELECTIONS: 9-7-2-10

Race 6: The word was out on 7 TALBINGO in his turf debut, and he made 6-5 look like a steal the way he streaked off to a win, in an effort that says he’s just getting started. Don’t sleep on 3 PRIVATE THOUGHTS, who has strong turf form but has been doing the Tapeta thing of late, while 4 PASS THE HAT got an epic pace meltdown last time and may not be as fortunate facing better here. SELECTIONS: 7-3-4-2

Race 7: Was looking to beat 2 GRANDE at a short price in the G3 GHOSTZAPPER, as his fast comeback win was also done in a very taxing manner, but he could regress and still handle this modest group easily. A return to two turns will agree with 4 CAPITAL IDEA, who has solid route form and legged up for this in a Tampa sprint. Not sold on 8 STEAL SUNSHINE as a two turn horse, and his lack of speed hurts too. SELECTIONS: 2-4-8-5

Race 8: Class and expected firm ground mean 7 BELLEZZA will be tough in the G3 Orchid, as her form has been impeccable when she gets her footing, and this is a great group to start her year off against. The tactical speed of 5 SPEED SHOPPER will get her first run, which is what she did when reeling in front-running 1 AYRA STARK to win the G3 Clement here 1/24. SELECTIONS: 7-5-1-2

Race 9: The rematch between 6 SHE BE SMOOTH and 5 PROM QUEEN in the G2 GP Oaks should be a thriller, and while the former was 2 1/2 lengths to the good when they met in their debut in 1/23, and was stunning winning the G2 Davona Dale by 6 in her last, the way the latter broke her maiden at this trip by 8, with trouble too, says she’s maturing by the day and can reverse the decision, in a race that can catapult both to Churchill Downs as legitimate Kentucky Oaks contenders. You get two-turn experience with 4 JUST SINGING, who was a decent 3rd to a good filly in the G2 Rachel Alexandra at FG. SELECTIONS: 6-5-4-2

Race 10: It’s Best Bet time with 9 SECRET HIDEAWAY in the Sanibel Island, as the Euro import looked great outworking stablemate 10 SMEXY on the 13th (viewed on XBTV), showed quality last year at 2, and gets to stretch out as well. Smexy seems to have a bit of quality too, and should also like the distance, so she’s a nice insurance policy to have. The best of the locals may be 3 VEKOMA VIEW, who was pressed then streaked home to win her turf debut. SELECTIONS: 9-10-3-2

Race 11: Graded stakes winning 3yos who return at 4yo hold the aces in the Army Mule, with the stalking style of 10 OWEN ALMIGHTY getting the call over the brilliant speed of 9 MACHO MUSIC, who meets plenty of pace rivals. A freshening and some class relief may help get the classy 3 SCOTLAND back on the beam. SELECTIONS: 10-9-3-2

Race 12: It’s Longshot time with 4 HANG THE MOON in the Sand Springs, as she closed like a wild horse to win her local debut for Saffie, and was a proven graded stakes horse in California, which means this rise won’t be too much for her. That was some comeback win by 3 SWEET REBECCA, who was much better than the 1-length margin at the wire, and considering that was her first start off a June layoff and first for Walsh, she’s scary with that behind her. She’s tough to trust, but 10 CANDY QUEST is mighty good when she fires, and will like the cutback after running 1 3/8 in her last. SELECTIONS: 4-3-10-6

Race 13: It’s all systems go for 6 DASHMAN in the G3 Pan American, as he was a short horse running a short distance in his comeback, but now stretches out to 1 1/2 miles, a trip he won the G3 McKnight over here last year. Multiple G1 winner, $2.4 million earner, and defending champion 7 FAR BRIDGE returns at 6 off a 9/27 layoff, while prepping for bigger, so now is the right time to try and beat him. Not sure 1 CORRUPTION is as good as the horse who was beaten just a neck by ‘Bridge in this last year, but his speed must be respected. SELECTIONS: 6-7-1-8

Race 14: An absolutely tantalizing renewal of the G1 Curlin Florida Derby is again the best Kentucky Derby prep, and at the end of the day it looks like 4 COMMANDMENT is simply the best horse and the most likely to relish the added distance he gets here, as he had plenty in reserve when defeating 2 CHIEF WALLABEE in the G2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth at the short stretch finish line, while once again galloping out huge, so at a true 1 1/8 miles today, he looks primed to do it again. The somewhat forgotten horse is 6 NEARLY, as he skipped the FOY after wowing with a devastating win in the 1/31 G3 Holy Bull over the short stretch, but the waters are a lot deeper today, and if he’s chasing another hot pace like he did last time, he may not have as much in the tank for this much more demanding trip. There’s two schools of thought on ‘Chief; one which says he’s just tipping the iceberg after a huge 2nd in the FOY while sticking a head in front of Commandment on the far turn, while the other says he wasn’t traveling as good as the winner late and may not like the added ground, while also potentially regressing after such a huge effort just one start removed from his debut win, and in this corner, it’s the latter, so let’s make him prove it right back. You had to be impressed with 8 THE PUMA when he broke his maiden in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby while wide the entire way, but that field pales in comparison to this one, and his win was won in slow time too, so he’ll need to run the race of his life to even make an impact, let alone win this. SELECTIONS: 4-6-2-8

Best Bet: R10: #9 Secret Hideaway (2-1)
* Visually impressive outworking ‘mate
* Aggressively spotted in Europe at 2
* Should like the added ground today

Best Bet: R12: #4 Hang the Moon (6-1)
* Visually impressed in her first for Saffie
* Shows solid graded stakes form in Ca.
* Not far off the ML favorites on figures