The biggest thoroughbred racing date of the year in Virginia comes on Saturday when it is Arlington Million (G1) Day at Colonial Downs. The featured event goes as Race 11 on a 12-race card that gets started at noon eastern. The slate is a loaded one with lots of strong wagering opportunities throughout the day, including the All-Stakes Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers over the back part of the card. To add to the value, 1ST/BET and Xpressbet are offering up a Hit & Split opportunity in both of the All-Stakes wagers. Just head over to the promotional landing page, register, and then split your share of $2500 bonus cash if you connect on either the Pick 4 or Pick 5. Here is how I see things.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 7: Reigh Count
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10 Verifire
Backups: 5 Illuminare; 4 Back Em Up

Forecast: The lone dirt race of the sequence is at 7-furlongs over the main track where I like #10 Verifire most. The Brad Cox trainee makes his first start off a six-week freshening over a racetrack he broke his maiden over last March. He draws favorably to the far outside. The ML favorites #7 Bracket Buster and #8 Crazy Mason are capable as well, but I prefer my top choice and the value offered by #4 Back Em Up and #5 Illuminare. Back Em Up attracts Paco Lopez in his first local start after an easy win in Florida, while Illuminare gets major class relief after chasing some of the best sprinters in the country during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.


Race 8: Van Clief
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Alogon; 12 Governor Sam
Backups: 9 Isivunguvungu

Forecast: The top two choices on the ML both make plenty of sense in this 5.5-furlong turf dash. #12 Governor Sam is the understandable 7-2-top choice off of his win in the Get Serious in late June. The only concern is that he is likely to have to work much harder in the early stages to find a favorable forward position since he is taking on a full field with a far outside draw, instead of a group of just six. He is one of the likelier winners, as is top choice #2 Alogon. The 7YO gelding makes his second start off a ten-month break after breaking slow from the inside in the same race Governor Same exits, settling in last, and then making a wide move into the lane. With the start under his belt off the bench, he should be primed for his best. #9 Isivunguvungu is the long shot that intrigues the most. The Graham Motion trainee was sixth in this race last year after a sixth-place run at Monmouth Park to set him up. He won his allowance race at Laurel Park off the bench on June 19, so hopefully it is a good sign for his effort second off the bench.


Race 9: Secretariat (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Supercharger
Backups: 1 Turf Star; 9 Alpyland

Forecast: A competitive edition of this two-turn turf race for 3YOs is up next where #9 Alpyland is expected to go off as the significant favorite. The son of Vekoma ships into Virginia battle tested and in search of his third straight victory. The outside draw could present a challenge for the Mark Casse runner, but otherwise he is hard to knock. That said, I like #3 Supercharger more, especially if he is double the price or more of Alpyland. The Constitution colt has progressed nicely since trainer Cherie DeVaux added blinkers back in April. He lacks early speed, so he needs pace to run at and to work out a clean trip, but he can certainly finish. Hopefully, Manny Franco can navigate things as well as his regular rider who remains in New York.


Race 10: Beverly D (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Stellify
Backups: None

Forecast: Stellify was made the 3-1-ML favorite in this 1 3/16-miles test over the grass despite not having raced since the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall. Some might opt to take a swing against her given the lack of recency, but it appears to me that all has gone according to plan. They gave the daughter of Justify time after little went right out west and since coming off the time on the farm, she has fired off 4 and 5-furlong drills regularly in Kentucky. I am confident she is fit and projects to be prominent early and potentially tough to catch late. It appears wide-open from there, so perhaps singling in horizontals in a race I assume most will spread in is worth consideration.


Race 11: Arlington Million (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Mercante; 5 Burnham Square
Backups: None

Forecast: Both sequences conclude with the featured event, which of course is conducted at ten-furlongs over the grass. #5 Burnham Square has rattled off three consecutive turf stakes wins since stretching out in distance this spring for Ian Wilkes. Clearly, the Liam’s Map gelding has thrived over the grass. It got a bit hairy late at odds-on last out against softer, but he responded nicely when asked for his best by regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. Burnham Square is the likeliest winner, but this is the toughest spot of his career, so 5-2 is a bit tough to swallow. The value will be far better with #7 Mercante. The Brian Knippenberg trainee fired a big shot last out in the Wise Dan (G2) and projects to have things his way on the front end if jockey Florent Geroux wants it. He is a brave horse that could be left alone on the lead. If so, he is likely to fight to the wire in search of his first Grade 1 score.