Mother Nature forced the postponement of racing on Wednesday afternoon, but hopefully surfaces will be fast and firm by the time we get to Jim Dandy Day on Saturday. The 12-race card at Saratoga that is headlined by the return of Renegade and Commandment in their likely prep before next month’s Travers (G1) also includes the Saratoga Special (G2) and Lake George (G3) and gets rolling at 12:30 PM eastern. Be sure to play in the Bet $200, Get $20 promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet on Saturday. Bet at least $100 on both the Del Mar and Saratoga cards to receive the bonus cash in your account. Here are my full card thoughts.

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.


Race 1:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Bittersweet Memory; 3 Correlation Trade

Forecast: The opener is a MSW event for 2YO fillies at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf where I landed on #4 Bittersweet Memory. The daughter of The Factor was scheduled to debut a few weeks back for Kelsey Danner, but was forced to scratch after flipping in the paddock before the race. She was re-entered quickly last weekend, but did not draw in off the AE list. She appears live at first asking, as does the more obvious #3 Correlation Trade. Chad Brown is just 3 for 25 over the last two years with 2YOs debuting in turf routes at Saratoga, but the three winners were all Klaravich Stables runner like this gal. He is more than capable of having his runners ready to win first out. Correlation Trade attracts Flavien Prat and draws favorably along the inside.


Race 2:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Annotate; 6 Lot of Loon; 8 Doitforjack

Forecast: A pair of first-time starters intrigue in this 6-furlong dash over the main track for NY-bred maidens, as well as a filly with experience. I landed on #2 Annotate on top given her early speed through two starts. She battled between rivals in her first start at Aqueduct before giving way badly followed by a Saratoga debut where she stalked early while wide on the backstretch and once again lacked energy late. She needs to run better, but could have a pace advantage with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. Lot of Loon and Doiforjack both draw outside Annotate. They both have showed talent in the mornings and attract top tier riders.


Race 3:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Tuscan Sky; 6 Reasoned Analysis; 1 Gewurztraminer

Forecast: #6 Reasoned Analysis is the likeliest winner of this $100k claimer out of the Wilson chute after backing off and opting to stalk the contentious pace in his return on July 4 in a rare race over this configuration that fell apart late. The son of Upstart has every reason to move forward with the start under his belt and the strong run off the bench, but the tote will almost certainly illustrate that. #2 Tuscan Sky was toiling in the back in the same race my top choice exits because for some reason he was caught in between two runners as part of a three-way speed duel early on. That was not the trip backers anticipated on the Fourth of July, but either way it feels like now or never for this Repole Stable gelding that should sit a much more favorable mid-pack voyage with Flavien Prat back aboard.


Race 4:
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Subjugation/9 Dream More; 6 Cybersteel; 4 Chief of Staff

Forecast: The regally-bred first-time starter #9 Dream More, as well as other promising juvenile debut runners headline this six-furlong MSW event for 2YOs over the main track, but do not snooze on second-time starter #1 Subjugation. The pricey son of Bee Jersey ran a big second on debut at Ellis Park to odds-on winner Antivenom with nearly six lengths back to third. He showed strong gate speed in his first start, so the inside draw should end up working beautifully. I will ride with him, but have plenty of respect for the aforementioned $1.5M son of Gun Runner, as well #4 Chief of Staff and #6 Cybersteel. Taking too short of a price on anyone seems foolish. There is plenty of upside on display. I will have my note pad out.


Race 5:
Grade: C+
Use: 6 Wyna; 8 Life Changing

Forecast: Trainer Brad Cox has meant business thus far with 2YO first-time starters over the Saratoga dirt. Cox has started seven debut runners over the main track in New York dating back to July 11. He has three wins, a second, and a third to show for it. The high-percentage conditioner sends out this $200k daughter of Complexity that also looks live at first asking. I will side with her and the half-sister to Seize the Grey, #8 Life Changing in this 6-furlong dash over the main track. The Repole Stable filly fired a best of 120 runners gate drill over the training track on July 20 and draws favorably. She attracts the aggressive Luis Saez.


Race 6: Saratoga Special (G2)
Grade: C
Use: 3 Twinkle Town

Forecast: Sanford Stakes (G3) winner #4 Booked returns to the races in the first of three graded stakes races on the Saturday slate. The Yaupon colt took a step forward to win his first start versus winners, but could be vulnerable given the fact that no one has won both the Sanford and Saratoga Special since City Zip in 2000. Steve Asmussen obviously knows his colt best though and is understandably aiming to strike while the iron is hot. He is a likely winner as is dominant first out winner #6 Flight Command, but maybe #3 Twinkle Town will get slightly overlooked. The Kenny McPeek runner showed strong gate speed on debut over the off track and cruised home to an easy victory. He attracts Jose Ortiz for his first stakes try.


Race 7:
Grade: B+
Use: 8 Iron Dome; 7 Pagode/2 Hop Sing

Forecast: I like older runners to handle the lightly raced 3YOs in this nine-furlong affair for first-level allowance foes over the main track. #8 Iron Dome is the one I like most. The New York-bred thrived against softer competition over this surface and distance last summer and comes off a solid runner-up effort when chasing an inside speed winner all the way around the track. He should be prominent early and primed for his best. #7 Pagode also is an intriguing option. The Constitution gelding commanded $255k at the FTK Horses of Racing Age Sale earlier this year and attracts Irad Ortiz. He has been camera shy of late, but fits well with these nonetheless.


Race 8:
Grade: B-
Use: 1 Big Earn; 5 Silsbee/6 Heat Missile

Forecast: There should be an honest pace at the very least in this first-level allowance at 5.5-furlongs over the grass. #2 Lady Jancis is very quick with others to her outside that also like to be prominent early. This should set things up for a runner from the second or third tier. #5 Silsbee will take plenty of public support in her second start off the bench after battling early and giving way late last month. Edgard Zayas should be able to find a favorable stalking voyage instead of getting caught up in a speed duel like she did in her 4YO debut. She makes plenty of sense, but not from a wagering perspective. #1 Big Earn makes far more at her likely price. The Maryland-bred ships north after a trio of solid sprints over the Laurel sod this spring. Hopefully, Luis Saez can relax her in the pocket early and out finish this bunch late. #6 Heat Missile is a total wild card, but the fact she attracts Jose Ortiz in her first Stateside start is at least noteworthy.


Race 9:
Grade: A-
Use: 6 Amberglen

Forecast: My best bet of the day comes in this 1 1/16-mile event over the Inner Turf where #6 Amberglen makes her first trip to Saratoga for trainer Brad Cox. The Stonestreet Stables filly won despite being caught wide throughout in a two-turn route race to kick off her career at Keeneland in the fall before competing in a stakes race over the all-weather at Gulfstream Park due to it getting washed off the grass. She lost little in defeat when Luster got the jump on her in her 3YO debut in Lexington in April and pranced home to an easy win on the front end at Churchill Downs last month. She has tactical speed and class and should work out a favorable trip in her New York debut.


Race 10:
Grade: C+
Use: 5 Commandment/1 Chip Honcho

Forecast: The featured event drew a compact group of five to travel the 1 1/8-miles distance in the local prep for the Travers (G1) next month led by the second and third place finishers from the Belmont (G1). #5 Commandment was made the slight favorite over #3 Renegade after getting the best of him in the lane despite a less favorable voyage. Renegade might have been best in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but disappointed badly in the third jewel of the Triple Crown. He will win without me. Commandment has been one of the most consistent of this modest crop and beats these with a repeat of his last. The blinkers going on is not something I love before a big race, but it also could provide a higher ceiling. I am not lining up to bet him at his probable offering, but like his chances to earn his first win since the Florida Derby (G1). #1 Chip Honcho appears to be lone speed on paper, but everyone can see that. He has been a cut below the top tier of this group throughout the process and has done nothing to change that over the last couple of months. Perhaps he can steal this, but at a shorter price than I am willing to swallow.


Race 11:
Grade: C+
Use: 6 King Puck; 9 Dakota Country/2 Joker On Fire

Forecast: #9 Dakota Country was made the heavy 8-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona in this state-bred first-level allowance over the grass. The son of Mucho Macho Man has been out west competing against open company runners over the last year. He comes into Saratoga first off the claim for Bob Hess Jr. after a pair of off-the-pace wins at Santa Anita Park. His form clearly fits, but he lacks early speed, has been running at slightly longer distances, and is expected to get bet heavily. He is hard to toss totally, but equally tough to push all-in on. #6 King Puck makes the most sense of the value options. The Three Diamonds Farm gelding makes his second start off the bench after stalking early and tiring late in a similar spot on the Fourth of July. This race shape should be more to his liking. #2 Joker On Fire also has a shot. He is just 1 for 12, but should get a nice ground saving voyage under veteran Jose Lezcano.


Race 12:
Grade: B-
Use: 3 Amicable Farce; 6 Fancy n’ Flight; 4 Timeless Melody

Forecast: I have no interest in backing either of the ML favorites in this MSW over the grass to close the card. #6 Fancy n’Flight intrigues though as the third choice. She is likely to take public support since she gets Irad in the saddle for the first time after encountering traffic issues in her lone turf start last October. I am not sure how much run she had when forced to steady, but she will not have to be much to graduate. I will use her, as well as the “other Chad Brown” #3 Amicable Farce and longshot #4 Timeless Melody for high-percentage conditioner Philip Antonacci. Any of the three with positive results in the prior few races should mean a chance for a decent horizontal payday.