The Lead:
Mountaineer's biggest card of racing takes place Sunday with the Grade 3 $400,000 West Virginia Derby headlining a 9-race twilight card that also includes the $200,000 West Virginia Governor's Stakes. First post will be 5:00 pm ET with horses representing the stables of Steve Asmussen, Kenny McPeek, Saffie Joseph Jr. among the marquee, along with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet be sure to check out the $500 West Virginia Derby Day Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge qualifying tournament.

​​Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner TRENDSETTER has the field's signature score. He and BULL BY THE HORNS have held the top strength of schedule in this field.
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Pace:
Controlling speed should be from WAYNE'S LAW and J J GREY in some fashion, either capable of leading. Unless a third horse unexpectedly gets into the fray, this should be controlled up front over 9 furlongs.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-NEHALEM: Indiana shipper totally over his head off of claiming efforts and lacks any early foot to even factor in how they race will be run.

2-BAYTOWN DREAMER: 1-for-15 performer has finished 11th in his last 2 graded stakes on dirt and is now 0-9 in stakes at all levels. Gets local legend Deshawn Parker and a ground-saving trip, but that’s not enough to get him onto my ticket.

3-TRENDSETTER: No doubt fits on class with this group after winning the Lexington at Keeneland and holding solid form through the Peter Pan and Ohio Derby. But he’s lost margin on the back half of his 2-turn races in 3 of 4 attempts and looks to hit a wall at 9 furlongs. Obvious exotics contender, but prefer others for the trophy.

4-J J GREY: Iowa Derby winner is 4-for-4 in 2-turn dirt routes and squarely the horse to beat. He’ll pick up 7-8 pounds off his last 2 stakes wins. The Kenny McPeek trainee’s BRIS late pace figures of 98, 100 and 104 in his last 3 wins make him doubly tough if he’s first or second turning for home, which he projects to be in a race without a slew of front-runners.

5-ZIHNAL: Connections have shopped this one in stakes all over the country, including a few scratches that don’t show on his past performances. They obviously feel he’s better than a 1-for-4 record may indicate. May have moved too soon in the Indiana Derby when flattening out to fourth and now adds blinkers, which can help rectify such mistakes. Gets in at 118 pounds (6 fewer than the favorites), which doesn’t hurt, nor does the presence of jockey John Velazquez. But the pilot likely puts a dent in the 6-1 morning line price. I’ll make him prove it.

6-MAXIMUM EFFORT: We’ve seen maiden Ocelli have success in this 3-year-old crop in further earning minor shares of big-money races, so this is Ocelli Lite, if you will. Winless in 8 starts, he’s been around the fringes in the Texas and Iowa Derbies. Rallying last to third in Iowa is not easy as Prairie Meadows is highly speed-favoring, so the 2-1/2 lengths he needs to make up on J J Grey could be erased with a venue change and an additional sixteenth of a mile. An 8-pound shift in weights in Maximum Effort’s favor also helps the case. Steve Asmussen has won a record 6 editions of the West Virginia Derby, most recently 2023 with Red Route One. No surprise to be the late threat to fear Sunday.

7-WAYNE’S LAW: Gulfstream Park-based colt adds blinkers for the first time and has an interesting mix of past performances that haven’t promoted any semblance of consistency. He’s bounced from sprints to routes and tossed in a turf attempt to good. What intrigues me is the 2 best BRIS late pace figures of his career came in his 2-turn dirt routes, 103 in Florida Derby and 99 in the Sam F. Davis when taking on divisional title contenders like Renegade and Commandment, last week’s 1-2 finishers in the Jim Dandy. The only other speed in the race besides J J GREY and carries 6 fewer pounds. Consider.

8-BULL BY THE HORNS: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has summered this one at Saratoga as part of an extended road trip since the Fountain of Youth. Lack of early speed a problem and adding blinkers last out didn’t help, so they’ve been removed. Out of the money in all 3 career dirt stakes bids, uncompetitive in each. Barn is going well nationally in stakes and did ship here to win the 2022 West Virginia Derby with Skippylongstocking. Needs a career-best to consider.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
J J GREY has yet to be beaten around 2 turns and is the best finisher in the race by the metrics.

Best Longshot Contender:
WAYNE'S LAW is 8-1 morning line and could be in the hunt from the opening bell.
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Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta part-wheel J J GREY over WAYNE'S LAW and MAXIMUM EFFORT ($100).