The racing week in Saratoga Springs concludes on Sunday afternoon with a ten-race card that gets rolling at the normal 1:10 PM eastern start time. The card is headlined by the $225k Mahony (G3) conducted at 5.5-furlongs over the grass, which goes as Race 9. Here are a few horses I like most on the afternoon.

Race 4:
This MSW for 2YOs over the Inner Turf is one of the more intriguing races on the Sunday agenda from a wagering perspective because I lack trust in 5-2-ML favorite #9 Greenwell. The Flightline colt ran a good second on debut at Churchill Downs as the even-money favorite before running poorly in his subsequent start over the Saratoga dirt on July 18. No doubt the dam side pedigree screams turf, but this guy was clearly well-meant sprinting over the main track on debut, so with an outside draw I am willing to fade him in his first two-turn trek.
I will try to beat Greenwell with second-time starter #2 Suspend. The son of Tapit is bred on both sides to relish a route of ground and while he was even throughout with an inside mid-pack voyage last month over this course and distance, he should improve this afternoon. Trainer Bill Mott is 0 for 15 over the last 3 years at Saratoga with 2YOs making their first start in a turf route, but is a much-stronger 3 for 14 with a $2.54 ROI with those making their second start. The Claiborne Farm homebred draws favorably along the inside and should offer fair value after his mid-pack finish at first asking.

Play: #2 Suspend (8-1 ML)
Picks: 2-5-7


Race 6:
The sixth is a similar spot for 2YOs over the Inner Turf where the betting is expected to more spread out through the field by oddsmaker David Aragona. The two ML favorites make their first start for top-tier turf barns, but have yet to prove themselves, so I will take a big swing with #6 Hilts. The son of Vekoma is out of an Illinois-bred Congrats mare that never ran on the grass and only win in nine starts came in a state-bred $15k maiden claimer, but her first foal commanded $300k at the FTS sale a year ago to Spendthrift Farm. Spendthrift opted to give this one to longtime trainer Al Stall, Jr., who brought him to Saratoga in July and has worked him four times, twice over the grass. Despite the lack of pedigree, Stall opts to make the decision to debut him going two-turns over the lawn. He might just be a horse that is getting started today with a longer-term goal in mind, but for the most part Stall means business when shipping runners to Saratoga. I will take my chances that Luis Saez can get this guy to the front or into a prominent spot early and outrun his odds if not much more.

Play: #6 Hilts (12-1 ML)
Picks: 6-2-10


Race 9: Mahony (G3)
The featured event for 3YOs sprinting over the sod certainly goes through even-money favorite #2 Outfielder. The $850k son of Speightstown is 4 for 7 thus far, but two of those losses came in Grade 1 races overseas with the third one coing when trying two-turns for the only time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last Halloween. We have not seen the Wesley Ward trainee since his mid-pack finish in the Commonwealth Cup (G1) at Ascot, so he is a bit difficult to get excited about backing at the windows at his price despite being the likeliest winner.

I will take a small shot against Outfielder with the lightly-raced #5 Big Destroyer. The son of Midshipman won nicely on debut at Aqueduct on June 12 under jockey Flavien Prat before shipping to Monmouth Park for his first start versus winners where he ran a solid second in the My Frenchman to #1 Rebel With a Cause. I prefer him today given the fact that was just his second career start while Rebel With a Cause had more experience and was the recipient of a much more favorable trip along the inside that July afternoon at the Jersey Shore. A move forward and regression from Outfielder gives this Miguel Clement trainee a shot to spring the upset.

Play: #5 Big Destroyer (5-1 ML)
Picks: 5-2-6