Breeders’ Cup prep season is in full effect, with many horses either having made or about to make their final starts before the World Championships are held at Keeneland in October. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.

Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.

CLASSIC
1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)
• To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man; likely to prep in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at BEL before heading to Kentucky…the best in the world on dirt when on his game

2 - Sovereignty (last week: 2)
• The champ was back and arguably better than ever in the Whitney; may indeed be a Saratoga move up but that doesn’t preclude him from winning a race like the Classic at KEE

3 - Magnitude (last week: 3)
• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney

4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)
• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?


DISTAFF
1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)
• Ran arguably the best race of her career in defeat in the Whitney; outside chance she takes on boys again but strictly the horse to beat if she tackles the females in the Distaff

2 - Counting Stars (last week: 2)
• Defeated as the heavy chalk in the G1 Alabama; clearly not her best but not going to be overly reactionary…she’s still one of the favorites in this division when firing on all cylinders

3 - Always a Runner (last week: 3)
• The Kentucky Oaks winner is going to run in the Cotillion at Parx; may be of comparable ability to Counting Stars but down in the head-to-head battles

4 - Fully Subscribed (last week: unranked)
• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign, earning a 106 Beyer in the process; she’s failed before when tested against the best but has never regressed at any point in her career on the Beyer scale…may be peaking at the right time


SPRINT
1 - Englishman (last week: 1)
• The clear leader of the division after another devastating performance at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day; Beyers of 115 and 117 as a 3YO entering the BC put him in rarified air for Cherie DeVaux

2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)
• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form

3 - Book’em Danno (last week: 3)
• Unfortunate to miss the Forego in which he’d have been an odds-on favorite; minor setback has him likely targeting a final prep at Belmont Park or Keeneland before attempting to tackle Englishman

4 - Deep Flame (last week: unranked)
• If not for the boss this would be a G1 winner entering the BC Sprint with a 110 Beyer in his back pocket…unfortunately that 110 was only good enough to get him beat by nearly four-lengths; getting better and better as part of one of the best 3YO sprint crops we’ve seen in years


FM SPRINT
1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)
• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland

2 - Explora (last week: 2)
• Filly had been screaming for a turn back all spring but stayed the Oaks course; since the turn back has looked like a monster…figs still light compared to the older fillies and mares but on the right path

3 - Ways and Means (last week: 4)
• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint in October off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina

4 - Mashallah (last week: unranked)
• Someone needed to occupy the fourth slot…regressed on the Beyer scale winning a stake at CNL in early August but has three open-length victories to her name in four career starts; claim to fame is 106 Beyer earned on debut, which happened to come at Keeneland


TURF | BERNIER'S VIDEO ANALYSIS THIS WEEK
1 - Burnham Square (last week: 1)
• His figs may be tapering off some but his win over course / distance this spring makes him a legit threat against all comers; a 107 Beyer in this race historically puts you right there at the wire. We'll see him vs. Ethical Diamond on Saturday at Kentucky Downs

2 - Calandagan (last week: 2)
• Bit of a leap with any of the Euros regarding who is / isn’t coming over; maybe not visiting the winner’s circle as much as he was in 2025 but still capable of firing elite-level shots at 12F

3 - Benvenuto Cellini (last week: 3)
• Has long been discussed as being the cream of the 3YO crop in Europe; first try against elders at Ascot was fine…nothing more, nothing less

4 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 4)
• The surprise winner of last year’s BC Turf (with a 107 Beyer) hasn’t had much of a campaign in 2026; stating the obvious - if he can get back to the Del Mar form he showcased last fall, he’s dangerous. Matches up with Burnham Square Saturday at Kentucky Downs


MILE
1 - Gstaad (last week: 1)
• If not for the since retired Bow Echo, we may be looking at an unbeaten 3YO campaign comprised of four G1s to this point; already shown that American style of racing is no issue with last year’s BC Juvenile Turf win @ DMR

2 - Blue Bolt (last week: 2)
• She’s done little wrong in her career in Europe and has established herself as the clear leader of the filly and mare milers; Juddmonte filly would be extremely dangerous if she came over

3 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)
• Has been known to lay an egg from time to time but his North American record is quite strong; miserably unlucky at Keeneland in April, likely wins that G1 with any sort of racing luck

4 - Deterministic (last week: 4)
• Hasn’t lost a turf race since October 2024; five consecutive 100+ Beyers at distances ranging from 8F to 9.5F is no small feat…the best of the American bunch at the moment


FM TURF
1 - Thundering On (last week: 1)
• Time hasn’t been kind to the form of the Epsom Oaks, however her turn of foot was electric that day; assuming she comes over, would have to think she’s in with a big chance for Joseph O’Brien

2 - Diamond Necklace (last week: 2)
• Defeated for the first time in her career, finishing behind Aventure in a G1 at Deauville; soft ground may not have been to her liking - willing to give a mulligan

3 - Precise (last week: 3)
• Another of AOB’s who is at the elite level; she’s not as good as Blue Bolt (and likely others) at the mile, so wonder if a stretch to FM Turf’s 9.5F @ KEE is in the cards

4 - Kathynmarissa (last week: 4)
• As solid as they come in the U.S., winning the G1 Diana at Saratoga in most recent start; race being run at 9.5F works to her advantage and she’s trained by Chad Brown, who has multiple FM Turf victories on his resume


TURF SPRINT
1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)
• Has done nothing wrong in her career and exits a win at Saratoga that has already produced two next-out winners; a 3YO filly won this race last year. She's back in action Saturday at Kentucky Downs

2 - Bacio (last week: unranked)
• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability

3 - Shisospicy (last week: 4)
• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s

4 - John the Beer Man (last week: unranked)
• Rejoins the list after Ag Bullet’s flop last weekend; runs this weekend at Kentucky Downs in the G2 Turf Sprint in what should be real test of class


DIRT MILE
1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)
• Hard to imagine the connections not heading to the Classic despite having both he and Sovereignty but will remain a part of this group for the time being

2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)
• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; coming up short in each of the past two would lead me to point to the Dirt Mile, but Classic remains an option for the connections

3 - Bishops Bay (last week: 3)
• Solid older veteran who probably isn’t a true G1 caliber runner, but depending on who shows up here…this may not be a race of true G1 caliber

4 - Chunk of Gold (last week: 4)
• Gave Bishops Bay all he could handle in the Iselin last weekend @ MON - perhaps a rising 4YO who could steal this at a decent number; owns a win over the course last fall by more than 8L