The Lead:
America’s top Breeders’ Cup Turf contender matches up against the UK’s defending Breeders’ Cup Turf winner in what promises to be a super Saturday matchup at the 1/ST BET Kentucky Downs meeting. The $2 million Kentucky Turf Cup has the marquee elder turf marathoners on a card that co-features the $3 million 1/ST BET Nashville Derby for the sophomores. For all its European qualities and quirks of the course at Kentucky Downs, note that American-based horses have won this race every year since its 1998 return to the schedule. Extreme heat in the Franklin, KY area this week should have the turf course super-firm and be another feather in the cap of the Americans.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to register for the $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion daily for Kentucky Downs and earn bonus cash on successful exacta plays. For more coverage of the 1/ST BET Nashville Derby on this Saturday card, be sure to check out 1/ST BET handicapper Matt Bernier's analysis available Friday.

​​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners ETHICAL DIAMOND and BURNHAM SQUARE top the playbill but are joined by Group 1 winner TIFFANY and defending champ and multiple Grade 2 winner OLE CRAZY BONE.

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Pace:
LAYABOUT adds blinkers and clearly has been the most intent on the front among these, while OLE CRAZY BONE figures very prominently in the early going. The pace feels legitimate to above average for the distance over this course.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-TIFFANY: Multiple Group 1 winner in Germany is multiple Group 2-placed in England for Newmarket-based Sir Mark Prescott. It’s been nearly a decade since he’s run a horse in America but the veteran trainer has an Arc de Triomphe to his credit in 2022. Remarkable 15-for-18 in the exacta for this 6-year-old mare who has faced the boys in 4 of her last 6 starts. Has a forward running style that could play well stateside and is a pure, 1-1/2 miles performer. Regular stable go-to pilot Luke Morris last rode in North America in 2018 at Woodbine and teamed with Prescott at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup with Turf Sprint sixth-place finisher Marsha.

2-DESVIO: No match chasing Burnham Square in the Elkhorn this spring or Ole Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green in July. He’s won just 1 of his last 13, a 34-1 stunner in the Sycamore at Keeneland last fall. John Velazquez pilots and best case scenario looks like a minor share.

3-DRESDEN ROW: Todd Pletcher trainee knocked off Ole Crazy Bone in a Churchill allowance this spring and was a narrow third behind Burnham Square in the Arlington Million most recently. That puts him in the fold vs. the top of this race. Hard to argue with 19-for-19 in the money but note he’s going 12 furlongs for the first time and hasn’t won yet beyond 9. Pletcher and Tyler Gaffalione teamed to win this race 2 years ago with Grand Sonata.

4-EFF THIRTY FIVE: Mike Maker takes over the training of this former Brittany Russell charge who relocated to his Kentucky barn in July. First trip this far and first trip to Kentucky Downs for a horse making a steep class hike. Antonio Fresu rides the Yoshida gelding who comes into the race in good form, winning 3 of his last 4. Prefer others at this 12F trip as a maternal grandson of middle-distance influence Unbridled’s Song.

5-LAYABOUT: Arlington Million pacemaker wound up a close fourth at Colonial to Burnham Square while a 67-1 longshot. He did wire the McKnight at Gulfstream over this 1-1/2 mile trip in January but figures to be under a lot of pressure to see this out Saturday. Blinkers on for a horse already in possession of early speed can be a risk in relaxion as Patrick Biancone puts the pressure on jockey Keith Asmussen to ration the gas. Factors for a while, but not likely late.

6-ETHICAL DIAMOND: Last year’s 27-1 upsetter of the Breeders’ Cup Turf makes his US return off a Group 3 win in Ireland for trainer Willie Mullins. This former steeplechase performer rattled off 3 straight wins on the flat last year, culminating with his surprise at Del Mar. Some inconsistency has plagued him in 3 starts this year, but Ryan Moore returns to the saddle as he was aboard in the Ballyroan win last out and that’s a big plus. Expect him to be far back early and the hotter the pace, the better chance for this stayer as he pumps out 24-second quarters.

7-BURNHAM SQUARE: America’s hottest turf distance performer has rattled off 4 straight wins this year since extending trips. Trainer Ian Wilkes always thought this Grade 1 Blue Grass winner on dirt would be better on turf, as was his dam, and he was rewarded this year with wins in the Elkhorn, Louisville, Chorleywood and most recently the Arlington Million. Burnham Square returns to Kentucky Downs under regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr., who teamed with him for a head runner-up in last year’s Nashville Derby over this course. Expect him to stalk from midflight and get first run on some of the deeper closers.

8-OLE CRAZY BONE: Last year’s Kentucky Turf Cup winner ran a career-best in cruising by daylight that day in his only local appearance. He returns to the scene on 3 weeks’ rest after tiring late in the Grade 1 Clement but won his prior Saratoga start in the Bowling Green. Jockey Flavien Prat – who guided this gelding to wins here last year and in the Bowling Green in July – opts to ride at the Spa on Saturday, leaving the mount to Jose Ortiz, whose dream 2026 season has come under a slump late in the Saratoga meet. He doesn’t have to have the lead, but Ole Crazy Bone’s best races are when he’s right into the mix so the tempo set by Layabout could go a long way in determining his chances of repeat – something accomplished by Rochester, Da Big Hoss and Arklow in the last 25 years. Mike Maker has won this race a record 6 times, all since 2015.

9-ECHO LANE: Gulfstream and Colonial-based runner for Rohan Crichton has dropped 6 straight, including road trips to Churchill and Monmouth. Didn’t come within 5 lengths of Burnham Square in 2 spring attempts and has seemed most effective at 1-1/16 miles, but was third in the Pan American over this trip in March. Prefer others.

10-FORT GEORGE: Second-off-the-plane start for UK-based trainer Ed Walker, which historically has been a spot of regression for international runners over the years. He made a strong initial domestic bid when second by a nose in the Bowling Green at Saratoga behind return rival Ole Crazy Bone. The 4-year-old remained at Saratoga in the nearly 2 months since logging 5 additional works. His winter company lines in Dubai were fantastic vs. the likes of Rebel’s Romance and Ombudsman. Fort George will team for the first time with jockey Jamie Spencer, who is 19: 2-1-3 in Kentucky Downs raids since 2019, winning the 2023 $2 million Mint Millions aboard 6-1 shot Ancient Rome for Charlie Hills. Can’t easily dismiss chances.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
BURNHAM SQUARE has 6 straight exacta finishes with a 4-race winning streak and the benefit of a good performance over the track already in the positive-check box. His running style keeps him in obvious exotics contention.

Best Longshot Contender:
DRESDEN ROW hasn’t missed a trifecta in 19 career starts for connections that won this race in 2024 and has been in the hunt against 2 of the major American contenders Saturday. At 12-1 morning line, he’s a distant sixth choice in the morning line who could spice exotics.
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Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
I’m going to lean All-American here. $50 exacta BURNHAM SQUARE over OLE CRAZY BONE; $25 exacta OLE CRAZY BONE over BURNHAM SQUARE; $20 exacta BURNHAM SQUARE over DRESDEN ROW; $5 exacta OLE CRAZY BONE over DRESDEN ROW.