Among the richest races run in the United States each year, this year’s G2 1/ST BET Nashville Derby will be heavily focused on the European contingent that is traveling to Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky. Trainers Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien, Hugo Palmer, and Andreas Wohler will be represented in this three-year-old clash, meaning the American runners will have their work cut out for them. Below you’ll find my fair win odds for all the runners scheduled to take part, as well as my thoughts on which contenders I find most appealing.

1 – Royal Causeway / 3% / 32-1
2 – Royal Guard / 4% / 24-1
3 – Glacius (pictured) / 32% / 2-1
4 – Carolina St. Beat / 2% / 49-1
5 – Versailles Road / 4% / 24-1
6 – Causeway / 20% / 4-1
7 – Fuzzbuster / 1% / 99-1
8 – Fancy Sailor / 5% / 19-1
9 – Gostam / 9% / 10-1
10 – Go Grey / 5% / 19-1
11 – Nil Bua Gan Dua / 14% / 6-1
12 – Blackmail / 1% / 99-1

Given the way races have been won at Kentucky Downs so far this meet (only one horse has come from more than a length back between the quarter pole and eighth pole to win) and the success of last-out Saratoga form (11-for-29 as of Friday; 37.9%), GLACIUS (3) looks extremely tough in the Nashville Derby. One of the European shippers, the Hugo Palmer trainee blitzed the field at Saratoga en route to victory in the G1 Saratoga Derby last month. The pace scenario of that race isn’t much different than the one projected in the Nashville Derby, and a part of me wonders if he’s just the kind of horse that wants to run freely on his own. While his European form wasn’t bad, by no means was it exceptional, either. My hypothesis for that is twofold; not only was he taking on better company, but he was attempting to beat said company by rallying from off the pace. Look for Luis Saez to have Glacius forwardly placed throughout on Saturday; if he repeats his Saratoga Derby, he likely emerges victorious.

CAUSEWAY (6) got the acid test in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp in mid-July, only to effectively be eased during the running. The softer going could have been to blame for the poor effort, or perhaps he found the competition slightly too much to handle. Either way, he looks to make amends and get back to the winner’s circle for Aidan O’Brien and company, with Ryan Moore making the trip over to ride. While not convinced he’s quite as quick early as Glacius, one would expect Causeway to be forwardly placed given the way Kentucky Downs races have been run. Assuming he bounces back from the dull effort in Paris, his best gives him a big chance to take down the top prize.

NIL BUA GAN DUA (11) is another European who possesses the “correct” running style necessary to be successful in a race like the Nashville Derby. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, the son of American Pharoah has figured prominently in races at longer trips, but with Ben Curtis doing the riding it’s safe to assume this three-year-old will be more forward than not by the time the field hits the climb up the backside. As a Kentucky bred, Nil Bua Gan Dua is eligible for the full purse on offer in this $3 million dollar event. Expect a credible effort from him here.

Of the Americans, FANCY SAILOR (8) is on an upward trajectory for trainer Brian Lynch. If the race off the layoff in early May is excused, the son of Justify has done nothing wrong in his career, including back-to-back victories in his last two races – albeit at much shorter trips. Now, stretching out the 10.5 furlongs of the Nashville Derby, Fancy Sailor gets to prove if he’s capable of taking another step forward for his connections. If so, the real question gets asked: is a forward step enough to be competitive against the Euro imports or is it simply good enough to round out the exotics?

THE PICKS: 3-6-11-8
THE PLAY: WIN – 3) Glacius to win at odds of 2-1 or greater