The Woodbine Mile is always an important stepping stone en route to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, as it’s seen winners parlay their success in Canada to Breeders’ Cup glory on multiple occasions in recent years. Dating back to 2012, the Woodbine Mile winner went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile six times: Wise Dan in 2012 and 2013, World Approval in 2017, Modern Games in 2022, Master of the Seas in 2023, and Notable Speech in 2025. Notable Speech will look to defend his title at Woodbine en route to a Breeders’ Cup Mile defense, but he faces a stiff challenge from America’s best hope on Saturday in Deterministic. Below you’ll find my fair win odds for each of these runners, as well as the rest of the field scheduled to tackle the mile distance over the E.P. Taylor turf course.

1 – Deterministic / 24% / 3-1
2 – Gas Me Up / 6% / 15-1
3 – Notable Speech / 28% / 5-2
4 – Archivist / 20% / 4-1
5 – Irish Aces / 3% / 32-1
6 – Silius / 14% / 6-1
7 – Itsastormymonday / 2% / 49-1
8 – Pierre / 3% / 32-1

I found it extremely difficult to separate the top four in the wagering for Saturday’s Mile. I’ll be stunned if one of the four don’t win, and I could even stretch and say three of the four are in a pack of their own with the fourth meriting consideration.

Let’s begin on the inside with DETERMINISTIC (1), who has been nothing short of spectacular for trainer Miguel Clement. A multiple grade one winner, the son of Liam’s Map hasn’t lost a race on turf since October of 2024. He certainly loves Saratoga, having won both the G1 Manhattan and G1 Fourstardave for each of the past two seasons; it’s not as though Saratoga is the only place he can perform, however. Deterministic is also a graded stakes winners at Aqueduct and Colonial Downs, making me less concerned about his ability to handle the one-turn mile at Woodbine. On paper he looks to be the clear speed of the race – but if I can see that, so can everyone else in the field. I can’t imagine they’ll let him walk on the front, but in the event they do, he’ll have this group in a world of trouble.

NOTABLE SPEECH (3) is such an admirable horse. The homebred for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby is a true globetrotter, having earned G1 success in three different countries around the world. As the defending champion of this race he figures to go off as the slight favorite over Deterministic, but I’m not convinced he holds a massive edge on his main rival – especially when factoring in the pace scenario. It’s worth noting that William Buick did have the son of Dubawi closer to the front in his most recent G1 success at York last month, so perhaps Notable Speech will be the one to ensure Deterministic doesn’t walk on the front end.

He’s yet to show himself as a true grade one type, but the graded stakes victory from ARCHIVIST (4) at York last month was spectacular. Another son of Dubawi, this four-year-old gelding settled toward the rear of the field in the Strensall Stakes before sidling up alongside his main rivals in mid-stretch. Once the rider gave him his cue, Archivist scooted clear in the blink of an eye, drawing off to win by more than seven. He’s now won two races in a row and seems to be in career form. He’s likely to settle toward the rear of the field again in this spot, but he loves the one-turn configuration and possesses a potent late kick; if he gets a bit of pace to run at, he’s dangerous as the third-choice.

The fourth of the quartet of main players would be SILIUS (6), who dug in gamely to take the G3 Prix Messidor at Chantilly in July. Not only did the son of – you guessed it – Dubawi prevail in the group stakes event, he defeated a runner named Erdenali. Erdenali may well end up being Europe’s best shot at winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile after setting a track record in the Prix du Moulin over the weekend at Longchamp, so to say his subsequent effort flattered Silius’ win would be an understatement (it’s also worth noting that Erdenali was very unlucky in the Messidor, as he was hemmed in behind runners for the duration and didn’t find a seam until the final jumps).

With such an evenly matched group, it boils down to price – as it always does. With his sparkling performance in his most recent start and the likely price he’ll offer, I’m siding with Archivist to get the best of both Notable Speech and Deterministic on Saturday.

THE PICKS: 4-3-1-6

THE PLAY: WIN – 4) ARCHIVIST to WIN at odds of 4-1 or greater