After several years in the making, it is nearly time to finally run thoroughbred races once again at historic Belmont Park. The newly renovated venue in New York begins racing on Friday with the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) headlining Opening Day and runs through December 6. The meet will contain 72 stakes races worth well over $17M and I for one am ready for the action. Here are my thoughts on the Opening Day middle Pick 5 sequence that kicks off in Race 3 and includes the featured event for seven figures.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 3:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Melodies; 9 Fiora; 8 Lady Girvin
Backups: None

Forecast: This 6.5-furlong dash for 2YO fillies over the grass features mostly first-time starters, including 7-2-ML favorite #12 Inflect. The Klaravich Stables filly is bred to want a bit more ground and is likely to take plenty of public support, so I will look to a trio of runners, including two with experience to try to beat her. #3 Melodies is my top choice after starting a bit slow from her inside draw on debut, but leveling out nicely late to finish second to an odds-on lone speed runner at Monmouth in July. With a cleaner break, she has a big shot for trainer Lindsay Schultz. #8 Lady Girvin did not show as much on debut, but it was against open company foes over the dirt at Saratoga where she was clearing still learning at odds of over 30-1. A move forward seems likely at a playable price. Of the debut runners, I like #9 Fiora most. She commanded $625k at the sale for high-percentage conditioner Phil Antonacci. She appears quick.


Race 4:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Early Adopter; 9 Rothschild
Backups: 10 A Bourbon for Toby

Forecast: 3-1-ML favorite #10 A Bourbon for Toby was made the understandable 3-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona in this ten-furlong affair over the Inner Turf. The son of Bernardini comes in having run the fastest races, including a runner-up effort to gate-to-wire winner Starship Titan on August 6. He certainly is capable, but the extra half furlong, his lack of early speed, and outside draw make him a bit tough to fully trust. I will use the chalk as a backup, but give big shots to #8 Early Adopter and #9 Rothschild as well. Rothschild had things his way on the front end in his victory at this level at Saratoga last month, but could control the pace once again on Opening Day. Early Adopter has to turn the tables on the favorite after being beaten soundly by him last out. Perhaps, the added ground and shaking off the rust will lead to a career best effort from the Lope De Vega gelding.


Race 5: Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Phileas Fogg
Backups: None

Forecast: There is no doubt that $31.75M earner #7 Forever Young is the one to beat in both the first Grade 1 over the newly renovated surface and in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) less than two months out. The Japanese superstar has not raced since his runner-up effort to Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March, but has been a warrior through 15 starts. He clearly towers over this field on accomplishments and should get a great trip just off the early pace, but is likely to be a very short price.

I am not going to go nuts trying to beat arguably the best horse this decade, but do wonder if he will be all-in to win this or if this is being treated exclusively as a tune up for the Classic at Keeneland. I will gamble that #4 Phileas Fogg can beat Forever Young to the wire in this year’s JCGC. The 6YO gelding has run some huge races when left alone on the lead and there is little reason to believe he will not be loose given the early scratches of #3 Chunk of Gold and #5 Banishing. I am not sure if the son of Astern is good enough to hold off Forever Young at his best, but the price differential should be good enough to gamble he can do so this one time.


Race 6:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Conman
Backups: None

Forecast: My stand in the sequence comes in this state-bred second-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles over the Widener Turf Course where I like the chances of #3 Conman. The son of Constitution was claimed for $45k by Tom Morley last November and was on the sidelines until less than a month ago when he kicked into another gear late to run down the lone speed at Saratoga. He moves into the state-bred ranks now, retains Ricardo Santana Jr., and meets a field I think he can handle. Anything 5-1 or higher and I will be firing in a win bet as well on the 6YO gelding.


Race 7:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 11 Card Man
Backups: 10 Bletchley

Forecast: A fun MSW for 2YOs over one of my favorites, the Belmont dirt one-turn mile configuration, closes the sequence. There are a lot of horses that have huge chances to move forward after their debut efforts in this spot, but will that be good enough to beat 2-1-ML favorite #11 Card Man? The son of Life is Good rode the rail in his debut before angling out and finishing well to earn second to a promising juvenile for the Brad Cox barn. The move outside over this configuration does not bother me one bit. He attracts Prat and scares me away from spreading. That said, I will still use stablemate #10 Bletchley. The Gun Runner colt sold for $1.55M at the Keeneland September ’25 sale and is out of a precocious female family. It takes a talented horse to win in one-turn mile races at first asking, but he very well could be just that.