The G1 Cotillion has become one of the most important events on the racing calendar – a statement which, at first, may seem a bit hyperbolic. Upon further review, though, it’s hard to argue with the race’s merits. Not only is it a grade one, but it’s the final grade one opportunity for three-year-old fillies going a route of ground (on dirt) in an age-restricted event. Going hand in hand, the Cotillion has also become one of the key prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, largely due to the attractiveness of staying the course and not throwing three-year-old fillies into the deep end against their elders when they don’t really need to.

For context, here are some of the fillies over the past 25 years to win the Cotillion en route to strong showings in the Distaff:

2004 – Ashado (won the Distaff)
2014 – Untapable (won the Distaff)
2024 – Thorpedo Anna (won the Distaff)
2012 – My Miss Aurelia (2nd in the Ladies’ Classic / Distaff)
2013 – Close Hatches (2nd in the Distaff)
2016 – Songbird (2nd in the Distaff)
2010 – Havre de Grace (3rd in the Ladies’ Classic / Distaff)
2018 – Midnight Bisou (3rd in the Distaff)
2021 – Clairiere (4th in the Distaff)
2025 – Clicquot (4th in the Distaff)

This isn’t to say that this year’s Cotillion winner is destined for a big effort at Keeneland on Halloween, but history would seemingly indicate the winner of this race on Saturday will have a big shot in the Breeders’ Cup.
Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the fillies scheduled to compete in the G1 Cotillion as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.

1 – My Miss Mo / 7.5% / 12.3-1
2 – Bodacious Bay / 6.5% / 14.4-1
3 – Zany / 7.5% / 12.3-1
4 – Always a Runner / 38% / 8-5
5 – Iron Orchard / 8.5% / 10.8-1
6 – Savor It / 0.5% / 199-1
7 – Ms Sophistication / 5% / 19-1
8 – Measure / 20% / 4-1
9 – Tap to Open / 6.5% / 14.4-1

The analysis of this race begins with the pace scenario, as that dramatically alters my assessment of some of these contenders. On paper, it looks as though things may get hot and heavy during the opening half mile. If that’s the case, the chances of contenders like MY MISS MO (1), IRON ORCHARD (5), and TAP TO OPEN (9) may be compromised.
Conversely, if you believe the pace will indeed be a rapid one, it becomes difficult to see past the Kentucky Oaks winner, ALWAYS A RUNNER (4), and the Alabama runner-up, MEASURE (8).

Let’s begin with Always a Runner, who enters the Cotillion after back-to-back losses at Saratoga. Trainer Chad Brown had wondered if the daughter of Gun Runner simply didn’t care for Saratoga, which is entirely possible. I believe she ran into a very talented filly in Counting Stars who was in raging form for both the G1 Acorn and G1 CCA Oaks, resulting in the pair of runner-up efforts for Always a Runner over the summer. Now, off a bit of a freshening and with what should be an advantageous pace scenario, there are no excuses for the Oaks winner. She should have every opportunity to win the Cotillion, assuming she’s good enough.

As far as Measure is concerned, her recent races would lead one to believe she’s approaching a peak effort at Parx on Saturday. The Mark Casse trainee finished well behind Always a Runner when they tangled in the CCA Oaks, but the daughter of Essential Quality followed that effort up with an extremely promising second in the G1 Alabama, coming up a neck short of My Guns Loaded for all the money. She’s paired up 90 Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last two starts, a pattern that I believe often precedes a forward move. If she jumps up on Saturday, she may spoil the party for the Always a Runner backers.

It’s hard for me to make any obvious excuses for ZANY (3) in her last two starts, and I’m beginning to wonder if she never improved off her two-year-old form. As the likely third choice in the wagering, she offers little appeal in my eyes.
I’m fine letting the local horses coming out of the Cathryn Sophia (both TAP TO OPEN (9) and MS SOPHISTICATION (7)) if they’re good enough, but it’s worth pointing out that the fillies exiting the Monmouth Oaks (both Saffie Joseph, Jr. runners in MY MISS MO (1) and BODACIOUS BAY (2)) earned giant figs on Thorograph (1.5 and 2.25). Either of those figs repeated would trounce this field, but I’m willing to make them prove that the numbers from New Jersey are legitimate.

THE PICKS: 4-8-2-3
THE PLAY: STRAIGHT EXACTA – 4) ALWAYS A RUNNER with 8) MEASURE