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Scott Shapiro: Fall Into Fortune Picks/Analysis for Tuesday

by Scott Shapiro

September 22, 2026

With the month coming to an end, it means just three more chances at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s “Fall Into Fortune” promotion. Remember, this promo is easy. Just bet $100+ on the select track each Tuesday and Thursday in September and earn a $10 bonus. Today’s track is Thistledown where they have an eight-race card that kicks off at 12:50 PM eastern. Here are a few horses I like most on the day in Ohio.


Race 4:
This state-bred conditional claimer at 5.5-furlongs offers horseplayers a seven-horse field where I will take a swing with #1 Mutiny. The 7YO gelding makes his first start since late August where he did not have the most comfortable trip at the same level and finished fourth beaten over four lengths. On the surface, it is difficult to see him making up the 3+ lengths on #2 Gonnamakeithappen, especially with the lack of speed signed on, but that one really should have found his way to the wire last first when totally loose on the lead. On the other hand, Mutiny was returning off just eight days rest in that August 26 race and making his third start in 23 days for trainer Ricardo Bailey. Now, the ten-time winner checks in off nearly a month’s rest and moves from an outside post to the rail. Hopefully, the rider change back to T.D. Houghton pays dividends.

Play: #1 Mutiny (8-1 ML)
Picks: 1-7-2


Race 5:
The late Pick 4 is up next where #3 Spirit of Akron looks like a potential single to kick things off. The son of Mor Spirit makes his second start off a three-month respite after breaking a bit slow and finishing a well-beaten fourth in a race against significantly better. Trainer Shane Meyers claimed this 5YO gelding for $10k in early spring at Mahoning Valley and while he has not won in five starts, he did hit the board in two races versus stronger competition. Meyers appears ready to cut ties, if need be, in order to get Spirit of Akron back to the winner’s circle for the first time in 2026. He appears to have found a spot where he should be prominent early and tough to catch late under regular rider Jose Bracho.

Play: #3 Spirit of Akron (8-5 ML)
Picks: 3-5-2


Race 7:
My final play of the day comes in this state-bred $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two lifetime at one-mile where I will hope for an honest pace early. 8-5-ML favorite #6 Dream Police makes his first start against winners close to two months after breaking his maiden at odds-on in a race washed off the grass at Belterra Park. The son of Always Dreaming earned a figure that day that would make him tough in this spot, but I am not sure he has things quite as easy on the front end with his outside draw and a pair of sprinters stretching out in distance that have shown tactical speed in one-turn races.

I will hope to run down the chalk with #4 Sgt York. The Keys to Riches Stable runner tries two turns for the first time since last August, but could be set for a big one second off the six-month freshening. The fifth-place finish against allowance foes over a year ago is probably not too much of a barometer for how Sgt York will perform later today, but he should find himself in a favorable spot when they turn for home if the stamina is there to handle the route of ground. Erik Barbarian was onboard last out and will stay aboard in the first half of the late Double.

Play: #4 Sgt York (2-1 ML)
Picks: 4-3-6