This race is unlikely to have any Breeders’ Cup implications in a few weeks' time, but it doesn’t make Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup Challenge at Keeneland any less appealing – particularly from a gambling standpoint. Eleven three-year-old fillies plan to line up and battle over nine furlongs, with the morning line favorite being this year’s King’s Plate winner, Luster.

There’s plenty to sink your teeth into in this year’s QEII Cup Challenge. Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.


1 – Haute Diva 2% / 49-1
2 – Luster 14% / 6-1
3 – Tam Tam 18% / 9-2
4 – Faithful Departed 20% / 4-1
5 – Turner’s Charm 2% / 49-1
6 – Braida 7% / 13-1
7 – Storm’s Wake 9% / 10-1
8 – Lookin At Diamond 11% / 8-1
9 – Kensington Lane 7% / 13-1
10 – Deep Learning 7% / 13-1
11 – Soloist 3% / 32-1


This race became far more interesting from a betting perspective when it was announced that Kentucky Belle, who would have been a heavy favorite, was being freshened for a four-year-old campaign. Her defection leaves favoritism up for interpretation, but my inclination is that FAITHFUL DEPARTED (4) will be the post time favorite when all is said and done. A three-year-old daughter by Yoshida, Faithful Departed has been slightly unlucky in her last two starts, each of which resulted in runner-up efforts. In the Belmont Oaks, the Grant Forster trainee was compromised by a dawdling pace, finishing nearly two-lengths behind the loose pacesetter, Kensington Lane (who also runs here on Saturday). Then, in the Saratoga Oaks, Faithful Departed made the first move from the back of the pack, blitzing to the front – only to be chased and grounded down by the aforementioned Kentucky Belle. Faithful Departed hasn’t run since August, but there’s no reason to think she won’t fire a big shot on Saturday.


TAM TAM (3) is already a grade one winner, taking the Del Mar Oaks over this distance in Southern California. The Phil Bauer trainee had a dream trip on August 22, sitting just off Kensington Lane before tipping out and finishing strongly down the lane. Another lovely trip figures to come her way in the QEII, but there’s no denying the water gets considerably deeper against this bunch. She may well end up vying for favoritism on Saturday on the heels of the G1 victory. If there was one concern for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, it would be that she’s already been defeated on the square by both Faithful Departed and Storm Wake, the latter of which has already won over the Keeneland turf and figures to be a much better price.

As for LUSTER (2) - there's really nothing to knock about her form. Trained by Josie Carroll, the three-year-old filly took Canada’s Kentucky Derby over the summer at Woodbine in authoritative fashion. Sent off as the .25-to-1 favorite, the daughter of Knicks Go dominated, prevailing by more than seven lengths in the end. She's displayed wonderful versatility throughout her career and, perhaps mostintriguing of all, she’s already shown that the Keeneland turf is to her liking. The five-length victory in her three-year-old debut should allay any fears that she’s simply a synthetic specialist. It’s hard to fully project how she’ll be played at the windows, as she’s been the betting favorite in each of her last four starts. Against this caliber of competition, however, I wonder if she floats up some from the 5-2 morning line she’s been assigned.

I believe these three fillies are the likeliest winners of Saturday’s QEII, but I’m going to go in a different direction at a much more appealing price. LOOKIN AT DIAMOND (8) ships in from Kentucky for trainer Leo Powell and, although the California shippers rarely have success on turf in Kentucky, this filly appears to be set to fire a career top in this spot. A daughter of Lookin At Lucky, Lookin AtDiamond saved every inch of ground throughout the majority of the Del Mar Oaks on August 22 before firing home in a big way. Beneath Julien Leparoux, Lookin At Diamond logged her final 3/8ths in 34 and 3/5ths seconds - a time that was 2/5ths of a second faster than the final 38ths of winner Tam Tam. Considering this was her first run since June, I'd like to think she’s going to take a step forward in her second start of the form cycle. If you needed another positive for this filly, look no further than her female family; her older sister, Diamond Wow, was a winner over the Keeneland turf during her racing career. She’ll need a bit of pace to run at (which I believe she’ll get), but if she does, Lookin At Diamond is worth a look at a price in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

THE PICKS: 8-4-3-2

THE PLAY:
8-LOOKIN AT DIAMOND TO WIN AT ODDS OF 8-1 OR GREATER
EXACTAS: 3,4 / 8