Racing at newly renovated Belmont Park continues this afternoon in Long Island with an 11-race card that gets started at 12:05 PM eastern. The slate is headlined by a pair of stakes races on the lawn, including the Hill Prince (G3) for 3YOs. The card boasts a pick 6 carryover of $22,681 beginning in Race 6. Here are few horses I plan to wager on later today in New York, including my thoughts on both features.


Race 5:
I like a big price a bit in this six-furlong sprint for state-bred MSW foes over the main track since the runners expected to take the most public support are far from intimidating. I know #2 Themistocles was completely empty late in his debut at Saratoga in late August, but there is a case to be made that he can take a big step forward in career start number two. Firstly, he broke sharp from his inside draw, but just did not have the speed to go with the top few. Improved speed could have him in a favorable forward position early on. Plus, a much shorter-priced runner made the lead at the Spa, took the inside, and also had nothing left late when the real running started making me wonder if the rail was not the place to be at that point that afternoon. This colt gets a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana Jr. for a barn that is not known for winning with first-time starters. A bit more speed from the gate and we could be in business at a big price.

Play: #2 Themistocles (15-1 ML)
Picks: 2-6-5


Race 8: Bricks and Mortar
The first of the aforementioned two turf stakes on the Saturday agenda is this seven-furlong dash for 3YOs named for the 2019 Horse of the Year. The race goes through 8-5-ML favorite #1 Two Out Hero. The son of War Front enters the spot after a runner-up effort at 26-1 in last month’s Franklin-Simpson (G2) at Kentucky Downs. The rail draw, his lack of speed, and expected regression make him tough to back as the chalk, so I took a shot against with Virginia-bred #8 Doubting Thomas. The son of Caravaggio stalked the slow pace of the eventual wire-to-wire winner of the Gio Ponti last out in his first start going long before tiring in the end, but should relish getting back to one-turn events since he has thrived at them throughout the early stages of his career. The outside draw should allow jockey Jorge Ruiz to stalk in the clear early and come up with a strong run late.

Play: #8 Doubting Thomas (6-1 ML)
Picks: 8-7-1


Race 10: Hill Prince (G3)
My top play of the day comes in this long-distance event for 3YOs over the Inner Turf where Nashville Derby (G2) winner #6 Caroline St. Beat was made the understandable 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona. The New York-bred had a very strong summer, but ran big twice in a short time span. Regression in this spot is certainly within the range of outcomes. I will try to beat the Tiz the Law colt with #2 Protect and Defend. Trainer Shug McGaughey is off to a great start at the new Belmont Park and this colt’s form was better than it looks prior to his two recent starts at Aqueduct and Saratoga. He won over a yielding course against a modest group of MSW foes on September 2, but it felt like a moment where the half-brother to Limited Liability put it altogether. The class hike is a real thing, but might be overstated by some horseplayers. Instead, I will rely on the fresher horse that draws well along the inside for a barn that has everything moving in the right direction recently. Hopefully, Protect and Defend continues to use his tactical speed to find a favorable forward position early. This would give him a big shot to get to the wire first.

Play #2 Protect and Defend (8-1 ML)
Picks: 2-6-4