by Jeremy Plonk
October 20, 2026
Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.
Hope you caught $31 winner Malibu Smart in Sunday’s Dowager Stakes from this space. Let’s see if we can carry momentum in the kickoff to closing week of the Fall Meet.
Race 3:
#3 La Noche Negra (10-1 ML) – Modest effort vs. tougher after a slow start to open the meet, but note trainer Carlos Munoz upgraded riders from a 7-pound apprentice to Jaime Torres, who has been fantastic this meet. He’s ridden 6 winners have averaged 8-1 (his average mount has been just under 16-1 odds at the meet).
#1 Sheza Go Getter (12-1 ML) – Steve Asmussen has been drawing aces in the 2-year-old races this meet, winning 3 times with offspring of first-crop sire Jackie’s Warrior, his former champion sprinter. Plenty of excuses in her last 2 starts and the debut was promising enough to ride for a hot barn.
Race 5:
#7 Justification (10-1 ML) – Been a struggle for trainer Rusty Arnold at the Fall Meet so the price likely holds on this 2-time third-place finisher looking to break her maiden. Pedigree to appreciate 2 turns and a bullet workout at Keeneland since her last start when no match for G1 Breeders’ Futurity runner-up and beaten favorite Coach Pope. No such monsters in this one.
Race 8:
#7 Dovetail (12-1 ML) – Two-year-old turf route maiden specials at Keeneland in the Fall are longshot havens (average winner nearly 9-1 odds over the past decade). Dovetail figured things out a bit too late in her Kentucky Downs debut. The Rudy Brisset barn has been solid with limited tries at the Fall Meet and the price is right.