by Scott Shapiro
October 29, 2026
Happy Breeders’ Cup racing fans! The World Championships are almost upon us at Keeneland, so it is time to think about how to budget your bankroll for this year’s event given the plethora of options on the wagering menu. Horizontal wagers offer horseplayers a shot at a massive payday with vertical wagers also offering a potential week or month making score. Forgetting the obvious Win bet though is often a mistake made in search of the four or five-figure score. I advise mapping things out ahead of time in order to maximize your strongest opinions.
One of the wiser options to consder for the two days could be playing exactas since this allows 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers to take a shot at our $25,000 Exacta-Thon Promotion. Most of you know by now, but the goal of the Exacta-Thon is to connect on as many $2 exactas as possible over a given card with the main goal being at least six over the course of the program. There is $10k total up for grabs on Friday with $7500 being split amongst those who connect on six exactas. The other $2500 goes to the player(s) that hits the most. The ante is upped to $15k on Championship Saturday with $10k being split amongst those who connect on at least six. Here are a few exactas I plan to make a part of my shot at the Exacta-Thon on Future Stars Friday.
Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
The wagering in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is expected to center around two undefeated runners. #10 Emphatic enters a perfect 3 for 3 with a pair of two-turn races under her belt, while #5 Miss Monica is 2 for 2, but must prove herself at a route of ground still. I prefer Emphatic simply because I lack trust in Miss Monica’s ability to thrive as the distances get longer, but the question is where to find value.
#2 Domain Expansion has some upside coming off her win in the Oak Leaf (G2) out west, but is expected to be the third choice, so I will lean on a pair of Kentucky-based runners instead to play with Emphatic. #3 Foxiest has more to prove than #8 Manuka Honey, but both come in off wins in elongated one-turn races at Churchill Downs. Foxiest is bred to be a star being by Gun Runner out of champion mare Covfefe and showed serious energy late in her maiden win after having to find running room in the lane. She is less trustworthy, but her 15-1-ML makes her worth including. Manuka Honey has passed all three of her tests with flying colors so far for trainer Brian Lynch. The big question is stamina since her pedigree does not point to two-turns being her game. I will key Emphatic with these two gals in hopes of knocking one down in the Exacta-Thon.
Play: Exacta Key Box 10 with 3+8
Picks: 10-8-3
Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)
European based runners have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in three of the last four years, including in 2025 with Balantina. They have a huge chance again in 2026 given the quantity and quality they send out. The contingent is led by Aidan O’Brien conditioned #9 Sun Goddess. She has never travelled longer than seven-furlongs, but brings the strongest resume in with six wins and close to $1.3M in earnings. I wanted to try to beat her since she is expected to take a ton of public support, but the international markets love for her makes it tough for me to disagree with the confidence of her connections and those who know her best.
I will tread a bit lightly from a wagering perspective in this one keying Sun Goddess on top of a pair of well-drawn Euros in hopes of connecting on another exacta. Both #1 Green Empress and #3 Curracloe drew favorably along the inside. This should allow them to save ground before coming with their run, while I am concerned about second choice #10 Amusingly getting caught wide with the short run into the first turn. Green Empress has never been worse than second in five starts, while Curracloe ships in from Ireland after two easy wins for trainer John Murtagh. Both should get the right trip in their first Stateside start.
Play: Exacta 9 with 1+3
Picks: 9-3-1
Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are familiar with getting to the wire first in this 1 1/16-miles event for 2YOs. Baffert has won the event six times with Pletcher nipping at his heels after winning it last year for the fifth time with Ted Noffey. Both veteran trainers send out two colts a piece in this year’s Juvenile with Baffert holding the stronger hand going in with even-money favorite #5 Hughes and #3 Salahudin. They are a combined 7 for 7 with Hughes being given far more respect for his four wins. The even-money favorite is the one to beat, but do not sleep on Salahudin. The son of Uncle Mo is still learning and has not figured out the gate issues yet, but has massive upside. He has been training forwardly and should run huge in his first start at two-turns. Both Baffert’s are major win threats.
Pletcher’s top threat based on the morning line and public sentiment is #6 American History. The son of Constitution won impressively on debut sprinting at Saratoga before taking advantage of a battle on the front end in his off-the-pace victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). It is hard to knock an undefeated horse, but I am willing to let American History beat me. However, Pletcher’s other runner has a big shot to pick up the pieces at a juicy price. #1 Damavand ran a better than looks fourth on debut after breaking a bit slow and chasing a gate-to-wire winner at the Spa before taking advantage of a pocket trip on October 4. The $1M son of Not This Time has not competed against stakes foes and did not break his maiden in dominant fashion, so his 20-1-ML price should stick. That said, he was very professional over this oval at this distance 26 days ago and is bred to love two-turns. The Keeneland September ’25 purchase should get a great trip once again given his inside draw. I like his chances to grind out a minor share.
Play: Exacta 3+5+7 with 1
Picks: 3-1-5
For complete Breeders' Cup weekend coverage, access our free 1/ST BET Breeders' Cup Wager Guide.