The Breeders’ Cup Turf is one of horse racing’s great events – both in terms of prize money and prestige. As one of the richest races in North America annually (purse of $5M), it’s no surprise to see entrants come from all over the world to contest the 12-furlong trip each Breeders’ Cup weekend. This year’s event may lack the genuine superstars we’ve seen in years past, such as Enable, Daylami, and Pebbles (to name a few), however it’s loaded with capable runners who will offer generous prices on race day. Below you will find a brief comment on all fourteen runners set to tangle at Keeneland on Saturday, followed by my selections and how I plan on betting the race.

1–Ethical Diamond – 12% / 7-1 fair win odds
The winner of last year’s Turf looks to have a real chance of going back-to-back for trainer Willie Mullins; prep at Kentucky Downs should have set him up beautifully for this run at Keeneland

2–Benvenuto Cellini – 7% / 13-1 fair win odds
-This year’s Irish Derby winner hasn’t gotten any better over the second half of his 3YO campaign; Aidan O’Brien always dangerous in spots like this and Ryan Moore stays aboard; certainly can win but almost assuredly an underlay in the win market

3–Minaret Station – 6% / 16-1 fair win odds
An underrated runner for Will Walden’s barn, Minaret Station is in career form; biggest obstacle has always been soundness and ability to stay on the track, but a steady campaign this year has him primed for a respectable showing against the toughest he’s ever seen; 1-for-1 at KEE with a graded stakes win under his belt

4–Far Bridge – 3% / 32-1 fair win odds
Inititially sounded as if the trainer wanted to run against softer, but the ownership may have had other ideas; multiple G1 winner has credentials but would need everything to break his way to hit the board

5–El Cordobes – 3% / 32-1 fair win odds
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won this Turf on multiple occasions and this runner was a good third in last year’s running; perhaps needed the race at Belmont off the lengthy layoff but Appleby didn’t sound overly impressed with the performance; needs a career best

6–Burnham Square – 9% / 10-1 fair win odds
Disastrous effort at Kentucky Downs in September, but maybe with an excuse given the oppressive heat; has only had two other chances to rally from off the pace going 12F – a 9+ length win at Keeneland in April and a 4+ length win at Churchill in May; his 107 Beyer in the Elkhorn would be good enough to go close here…you just need to decide if you think he can do that against international powers

7–Hotazhell – 6% / 16-1 fair win odds
If the race were contested over 10F this guy may be the favorite given his recent form; 12F a major question, but if you think he can handle it (especially in America) then he’s likely an overlay in relation to his level of talent

8–Test Score – originally 3% / 32-1 fair win odds
Scratched due to fever.

9–Johanna Walsh – 6% / 16-1 fair win odds
Tough call on many fronts, as lone try against older fillies and mares was a disaster – although that preceded a freshening; gets in light as a 3YO filly for all-world trainer Joseph O’Brien; O’Brien wouldn’t run her here if he didn’t think she had a shot, even if only a marginal one

10–Tiffany – 10% / 9-1 fair win odds
Stateside debut was a smashing one, earning a 107 Beyer in Kentucky Downs Turf Cup victory for Sir Mark Prescott; no reason to think she won’t run credibly here, and wouldn’t be too worried about the 7L loss to Bay City Roller last fall, as that race came over a bog and Bay City Roller is a mud lark; assuming she can save some ground she’s absolutely viable here

11–Survie – 6% / 16-1 fair win odds
The winner of the Christophe Clement at Saratoga in August, the George Boughey trainee hasn’t shown that sort of winning form against quality European competition in years; Prat takes the mount, reuniting with her following their victory together in the Glens Falls at the Spa; not impossible to hit the board but not crazy about her, either

12–Diamond Necklace – 13% / 7-1 fair win odds
Tecnhically would regard her as the “most likely winner” – but not by much; very credible third in the Arc last month, albeit with the benefit of the 3YO female weight break; Soumillon stays aboard the four-time G1 winner who must be respected, even with a tough outside draw

13–Bay City Roller – 11% / 8-1 fair win odds
Just ahead of Diamond Necklace when second in the Arc at nearly 40-1 for George Scott; undoubtedly better over ground with cut in it, however he’s a classy runner who has repeatedly shown he can compete anywhere; another contender mired with an outside draw who will need some racing luck in order to prevail

14–Deep Monster – 5% / 19-1 fair win odds
Brutal draw going three turns at Keeneland; has multiple races on Thorograph that would indicate he’s far from impossible, but his race may have been lost at the post draw; another who would be best used underneath, if at all


SELECTIONS
6 – Burnham Square 1 – Ethical Diamond 3 – Minaret Station 10 – Tiffany

WAGER
$1 Trifecta Box – 1,3,6,10 = $24