The Lead:
Belmont Park puts the 3-year-olds front and center one last time for 2026 with the Grade 2 $300,000 Mother Goose for fillies and the $200,000 Dwyer for the colts and geldings. Both attracted full fields, but the latter’s inclusion of 2026 Champion 2-Year-Old Ted Noffey in his long-awaited return steals the spotlight. The Dwyer is a 1-turn mile and goes as Race 8, immediately followed by the Mother Goose at 1-1/16 miles. It’s about as intriguing a stakes double as you’ll see the week after a Breeders’ Cup.
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​​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner TED NOFFEY is the only graded winner in the field. Grade 2-placed STOP THE CAR and the Grade 3-placed pair of BRAVARO and IGNITER have some black-type repute. Beyond the race classifications this race is pretty evenly matched on schedule strength when you factor in things like layoffs, distances and more.
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Pace:
The clash between sprinters and routers at this 1-turn mile looks evident. Expect plenty of early heat from the likes of OVERTIME RULES, STIMULATE, DECISIVE WIN and MAILATA, while TED NOFFEY could also be right in the mix while returning fresh and BRAVARO could be sent along from the rail despite a versatile style. A finisher would seem to have every chance with this table setting.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-BRAVARO: Versatile and consistent sort looks reliable once again in this spot after a 3-week blip to his training in late September-early October. Won from the rail in a 1-turn mile last year in the Sleepy Hollow but it’s an uncertain trip here stylistically with pure speed breaking in the 2 stalls next door.

2-OVERTIME RULES: Wire-to-wire winner in 2 straight has made the lead in all 3 outings for Arnaud Delacour and will be testing stakes runners for the first time. Fast-early, slow-late Keeneland sprint win where the exacta was 489-1 provides more questions than answers for tougher and farther assignment.

3-STIMULATE: Credible third around 2 turns in the Bourbon Flight when tested for distance and class at Churchill. Regally bred Tapit-Elate colt should appreciate the return to 1-turn racing and be right into the mix from the outset. Mott-Alvarado team coming off huge Breeders’ Cup Classic score with Sovereignty and riding high. Prefer this one to the other speeds in the race.

4-WHITE SMOKE RISING: Disappointing third as the 9-5 favorite in local allowance over this trip Sept. 24, but local experience and a sharp workout tab since give him some home-field edge. Pace should set up for a late move and his style could fit that shape for a Charlie Baker barn that has struggled. Kendrick Carmouche picks up the mount for the first time.

5-STOP THE CAR: Closer will be working late to make up a sure deficit but is hard to recommend on top after 6 straight stakes defeats. Trainer Brendan Walsh turns to Dylan Davis for the first time with this Pat Day Mile third-place finisher whose best races have come at this trip. Late piece upon best outlooks.

6-TED NOFFEY: Undefeated Eclipse Award winner has been out more than 12 months and has trained on a steady and consistent pattern since late summer. Bone bruising cited over the winter and was expected to be back in serious training at the start of May, but took until August to log his first drill. Plan has been the Cigar Mile since Labor Day and this race could put him on track for that but isn’t the destination. Given the high-pressure pace scenario and time away, I’ll try to beat him.

7-DECISIVE WIN: California raider adds blinkers for trainer Doug O’Neill and should be part of a contested early pace. Inconsistency has plagued the Nyquist colt, a $600K purchase with just 1 victory from 6 starts. Off the board in both stakes tries to date against fields that look weaker than this one.

8-IGNITER: Versatile running style could come in handy in a race with a pronounced early pace. Won the Ellis Park Derby over this mile trip and broke his maiden in his other 1-turn mile bid last year. Rick Dutrow trainee is a 4-time winner and could be a square price to consider on Saturday.

9-SEA STRIKE: Curlin Stakes winner found the Travers a bit too much over 10 furlongs when fading in the final sixteenth but should be very strong in a 1-turn mile with a great pace set-up. Expect him mid-pack with a finishing ability against these sharper milers. Perfect workout tab over the past 2 months since Saratoga and should be set for a top effort for Chad Brown-Flavien Prat, both excelling at the new Belmont meet.

10-MAILATA: Parx speedster has had wild fluctuations in performance over the past 2 seasons. Which version of trainer Butch Reid’s top sophomore shows up? He’ll need to be his very best to compete with the top of this lineup and the taxing early pace makes it feel like a hurdle very difficult to top.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
SEA STRIKE is classy, training well and gets a great pace set-up.

Best Longshot Contender:
IGNITER is best at this 1-turn mile and his PA Derby was excusable when the 1-2 finishers came back to shine in the Breeders' Cup.
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Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 Exactas SEA STRIKE over IGNITER and STIMULATE ($80). $10 Exactas SEA STRIKE over BRAVARO and STOP THE CAR ($20).
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