The racing week at Belmont Park continues on today with a strong 10-race card that kicks off at 11:40 AM eastern. The slate is headlined by the return of 2YO champion Ted Noffey in the Dwyer, as well as an intriguing edition of the Mother Goose (G2). Here are a few horses I like most on the day, including my thoughts on the two featured events.


Race 3:
There is a noticeable lack of early speed signed on in this $20k open claimer at one-mile over the main track. #2 Treaty Obligation is in a position to take advantage. The son of Maclean’s Music is just 1 for 14 dating back to the start of 2025, but stretches out to eight-furlongs and moves inside after being caught wide throughout in his first start off a two-month break on October 28. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has had a very tough run of late and wagering on cold barns is not usually my thing, but he did earn a victory yesterday, so perhaps things are heating up for the veteran conditioner. Plus, the lead should be there for the taking for jockey Antonio Fresu. At 9-2, Treaty Obligation appears to be solid value given the likely race shape. Hopefully, Fresu seizes control early and has enough left late to score the minor upset.

Play: #2 Treaty Obligation (9-2 ML)
Picks: 2-1-3


Race 8: Dwyer
This one-mile event for 3YOs came up strong led by the aforementioned Ted Noffey. The 2025 two-year-old champion has not raced since his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) over a year ago and meets a solid group in his return race. I am excited to see the Todd Pletcher trainee return to the races, but his likely off-odds are tough to swallow since it is far from a given that he will return off the break as good as he was a year ago. #9 Sea Strike is also expected to take a lot of public support. The cutback could work for the Chad Brown runner, but they were super bullish about his ability to relish more ground this summer at Saratoga despite his pedigree. I will let him beat me as well in his first try at a one-turn mile.

I like #8 Igniter. The son of Volatile comes in off a six-week freshening for trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. after being outrun going 1 1/8-miles against Grade 1 competition in the Pennsylvania Derby. Dutrow turns to Manny Franco, which should work well since the pace is likely to be honest and sitting mid-pack could prove to be advantageous, as opposed to being ridden more aggressively early on by Luis Saez. The Volatile colt has kept solid company throughout his 3YO campaign and should get the right trip in his first start at the newly renovated Belmont Park. He earned a victory in his lone start at the one-turn mile configuration in September ’25.

Play: #8 Igniter (8-1 ML)
Picks: 8-3-4


Race 9: Mother Goose (G2)
Trainer Saffie Joseph heads into this 1 1/16-mile event for 3YO fillies over the main track with a strong hand. #2 Bodacious Bay is the one to beat after springing the mild upset in the Cotillion (G1) on September 19. The Not This Time filly proved much the best that day at Parx and has done very little wrong thus far. The only issue is the price. Stablemate #9 Tahelquah is the one that should offer value. The daughter of Authentic stretches back out in distance after a better than looks run against the flow in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). Joseph added blinkers that day in West Virginia and it appeared to enhance this gal’s ability to finish with serious energy. A move forward in her first local try puts her right in the mix at a solid ML offering. Paco Lopez takes the call for the first time.

Play: #9 Tahlequah (12-1 ML)
Picks: 9-7-1