The racing week at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a ten-race card that gets started at 1PM eastern. The slate is headlined by a second-level allowance event at one-mile over the lawn. Here are a few horses I like most on the Sunday fall card under the twin spires.


Race 3:
My first play of the day comes in this beaten $50k claimer at six-furlongs over the main track where #6 Huck’s Agenda was made the 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but I prefer 5-2-second choice #2 Candy’s Melody. The daughter of Shancealot makes her fourth start off the claim for trainer Eddie Kenneally. Kenneally claimed the 3YO filly for $30k at Ellis Park and has seen her rattle off a win and a second in three tries since. She takes a slight drop-in class after a stalk and fade performance at Keeneland at seven-furlongs and should be ready for her best since her barn is red-hot. In fact, Kenneally is 4 for his last 8 dating back to November 5, including a win with Groveland in the Claiming Crown Jewel yesterday. The bug boy Yomar Ortiz Jr. takes the call.

Play: #2 Carol’s Melody (5-2 ML)
Picks: 2-1-6


Race 5:
My next play comes in this MSW event for 3YOs+, again at the six-furlong distance over Churchill Downs main track, where I like #3 Justice. Trainer Wayne Mackey does not start many horses in the afternoon these days, but the veteran conditioner is capable with the ones he sends out. The Peter Blum Thoroughbreds homebred debuted against Deep Flame this spring before being given time by Mackey. After the break, Justice returned in a MSW at Keeneland over the slop where he broke sharp, stalked just off the pace while three-wide on the backstretch, and tired in the lane. I like the fact that the son of Justify is able to put back-to-back races together for the first time. He should offer solid value in what appears to be a wide-open final leg of the early Pick 4 and Pick 5.

Play: #3 Justice (6-1 ML)
Picks: 3-8-7


Race 9:
The pace should be honest at the very least in the Sunday feature over the grass. #4 Next Up is a price option that could take advantage for trainer Matthew Sims, but her eight runner-up efforts in 16 career starts is an obvious red flag. I will use her underneath, but I like #11 Icona most. The Heider Family Stables runner has to overcome the challenging outside draw, but comes in fresh for trainer Brendan Walsh after a fourth-place run in her first try against stakes foes at Ellis Park this summer. Prior to that, she came with a strong late run to get the money in a first-level allowance at the Pea Patch and should be rolling late assuming Tyler Gaffalione can avoid a wide voyage into the first turn. I will take my chances that he can do so with this Kingman filly that looks the gal with the strongest late kick all things equal.

Play: #11 Icona (7-2 ML)
Picks: 11-4-10