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Saturday, October 27: Breeders Crown Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

October 27, 2018

Tonight, the Breeders Crown Finals begin in Race 3 and the post time is scheduled for 6:10 ET at Pocono Downs. The weather forecast for the Pocono area calls for rain throughout the day. The takeout rate on all wagers will be only 15% and there should be some great races on the card even if the track is sloppy. 

Xpressbet account holders who register are eligible for a refund on win bets up to $10 on all races at Pocono Downs today if their horse finishes second or third. Your refund will be deposited back into your account by 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 30, 2018. 

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. 

Race 3 
2-year-old filly Pace-Purse $600,000

3-Tall Drink Hanover (4-1) - 4-race win streak and rates a slight edge, inside draw comes in handy and could seek control. 
7-Zero Tolerance (5-1) - If pace is hot this gal should be rolling late and could pop at a square price. 
2-St Somewhere (3-1) - Might be peaking at the right time, should be sitting in 2-hole or in front of #3 on the first turn. 

Race 4 
2-year-old colt Trot-Purse $600,000

4-Smart As Hill (9/2) - Impressive win in last after being off over 3 weeks, will string along. 
5-Gimpanzee (2-1) - Nice win from 8-hole, now 8-8 on the year, could look to get on the engine and not look back. 
8-Green Manalishi S (6-1) - Lacked a pop at the end of the mile in last 2, but best to not overlook. 

Race 5 
2-year-old filly Trot-Purse $600,000

2-Woodside Charm (5/2) - Gets a great post draw, likes the engine and usually doesn't look back. 
1-When Dovescry (3-1) - Another with very good gate speed, has proved she can compete with these in last 2 wins. 
8-The Ice Dutchess (4-1) - Winner of >$400k has slipped a bit, will respect connections but post draw makes it tougher. 

Race 6 
3-year-old filly Pace-Purse $500,000

2-Alexa's Power (4-1)-Thinking Tetrick kept some gas in the tank last week, looking for a big try from this post. 
9-Kissin In The Sand (9-1)-Just a monster and could have easily put on top even from this post. 
5-Youaremycandygirl (3-1)-Will be battling hard as usual but may not be able to hold off #2 and #9. 

Race 7 
3-year-old colt Trot-Purse $500,000

1-Run Director (12-1) - Six Pack is scratched and will take a swing here, finally an inside draw and comes off a nice effort. 
4-Tactical Landing (3-1) - Should be bet hard and figures to be tough, likely to be odds-on and could feel pressure early. 
3-Fiftydollarbill (5-1) - Likes to win and B. Miller should have in striking range, will be using in gimmicks. 

Race 8 
2-year-old colt Pace-Purse $600,000

4-Captain Crunch (4-1) - Looking for an all-out effort and will give a slight edge over #5 and #1. 
5-Captain Trevor (7/2) - Winner of last 2 and 6 of 8 on season is a major player. 
1-Proof (3-1) - Versatile and may not need to protect the rail, should be in the hunt in the late going. 

Race 9 
Open Trot-Purse $500,000

3-Guardian Angel As (5-1) - Similar to #4, looking for some value in this race and should be on or near the lead throughout. 
4-Top Flight Angel (6-1) - Team Miller trainee looks tough, is in fine form and should be a square price. 
7-Warrawee Roo (12-1) - Could be a player for top honors if steps up off last effort in the slop, will use in gimmicks. 

Race 10 
Mare pace-Purse $270,000

2-Shartin N (5/2) - This mare has been machine like, will be tough to beat with a clean trip. 
3-Call Me Queen Bee (5-1) - Last was very impressive and winner of >$1.3 million is in fine form, best to repect. 
5-Pure Country (7/2) - Gets a better post draw and should be in line for a good trip to hit the ticket. 

Race 11 
3-year-old filly Trot-Purse $500,000

3-Atlanta (5/2) - Rates a slight edge, should get the top and if Zeron works in a soft 1/4 may never be caught. 
1-Plunge Blue Chip (4-1) - Can beat #3 but will need a smart steer and to mind matters. 
7-Phaetosive (5-1) - Brennan takes a seat and that could help, was too far back in the slop off a soft pace in last. 

Race 12 
3-year-old colt Pace-Purse $530,000

1-Dorsoduro Hanover (3-1) - Last was sharp, likes the 5/8's and likes to win, should be a major player. 
4-Thinkbig Dreambig (5-1) - Even effort in the slop and looking for a stronger try tonight at a square price. 
3-Springsteen (15-1) - Pace could be hot, Allard will be rolling late, probably at long odds and with a trip is a threat. 

Race 13 
Mare Trot-Purse $250,000

5-Emoticon Hanover (3-1) - Even though likes the slop last was a sharp win, could make the top without much work. 
1-Broadway Donna (4-1) - Had excuses in last and broke in race before, but on a decent track should be a threat. 
3-NF Happenstance (10-1) - Caught some breaks in last win in slop, but could offer some value in gimmicks tonight. 

Race 14 
Open Pace-Purse $430,000

3-McWicked (5/2) - Back half was impressive in last romp a YR, should be very difficult to beat tonight. 
6-Donttellmeagain (9/2) - Has raced once in last month but does nice work on a smaller oval, using in gimmicks. 
2-Lazarus N (3-1) - Comes off a sick scratch, if ready will be tough but will likely be over bet. 

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