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Upsets Highly Possible In Breeders' Cup Late Pick 4 Races

by Jerry Shottenkirk

November 3, 2018

Hopefully your Xpressbet account is splitting at the seams after Day One of the two-day slice of Thoroughbred racing heaven known as the Breeders’ Cup.

And if it isn’t, here’s your chance for recovery.

The late Pick 4 is the focus here and punters from all betting ports will make up a monstrosity of a pool. The Classic is the third of the four legs of the Pick 4, which begins with the Distaff, followed by the Turf, the Classic and the Grade 2 Chilukki, which is the odd-race out but is still a great betting opportunity as he looks like a “spread” event on your ticket. While Monomoy Girl is worthy of her role as he 2-1 morning line favorite, this is definitely not a gimme, as she will leave from outside post. It’s not an impossible chore and she’s a “must use.” However, it’s wiseto spread out, and along with her on this ticket are Abel Tasman, Midnight Bisou and Blue Prize.
The great Enable leads the way in the Turf, and this legend-in-the-making has been troublesome on male rivals lately. Hasn’t been a problem, probably won’t be today. They came close in the Arc de Triomphe as she scored by a neck, but she was clear in her other victories. Can’t really blame someone who wants to single, but Waldgeist is a special customer in his own right and has plenty of successes on his form. He was 4th , less than two lengths behind, and he has turned into a fine 4-year-old. He was winless in five starts last year but has taken four of six in 2018. To dismiss him without chance would probably be a mistake. He’s the backup, and while Enable is strong, upsets have been known to happen.

The Classic looks as outstanding as it’s supposed to be, and while West Coast is worthy of a top pick in my handicapping, he’s far from alone in this bunch. McKinzie and Accelerate are certainly capable and likely will get their share of support, and big-time closer Gunnevera will be a long price but could benefit from a lively pace.

If you can attack the finale with one or two, more power to you. I look at this as the most difficult proposition, although clearly the others aren’t anything easy, either. Moonlit Garden, Awestruck, Shenandoah Queen, Divine Miss Grey and Berned earned their way onto the ticket. Divine Miss Grey is 6-5 off a 2nd in the Beldame and likely will be tough to be if she runs back to that. Pace and a one-turn mile could make her beatable. She’s definitely on the ticket, but others could bump up the payoff.

Here’s the suggested ticket for the late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs:
Race 9) #2 Abel Tasman, #7 Midnight Bisou, #10 Blue Prize, #11 Monomoy Girl.
Race 10) #2 Enable, #12 Waldgeist.
Race 11) #4 Gunnevera, #5 West Coast, #6 McKinzie, #14 Accelerate.
Race 12) #1 Moonlit Garden, #2 Awestruck, #3 Shenandoah Queen, #6 Divine Miss Grey, #7 Berned. 
50-cent Late Pick 4: 2-7-10-11 with 2-12 with 4-5-6-14 with 1-2-3-6-7 ($80).