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Saturday, July 20: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 20, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies 
Del Mar 
Saturday, July 20, 2019 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-two-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-july-20th-2019/ 


RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Super Klaus; 4-Dearborn; 6-Tequila Sunrise 

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a six-runner starter’s allowance main track miler for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Based on the projected race shape, we’re going to give the edge on top to what we believe is the best closer in the race, Super Klaus. The daughter of Flashback has a prior two-turn dirt win on her resume and accomplished that victory with the kind of late-running style that should give her the edge in this affair. Bejarano stays aboard, knows her well, and should be able to produce her for the last run. Dearborn has numbers that are good enough to win at this level and continues to train in sharp fashion for Bonde. She’s suspect at this distance but on paper looks like the best of the pace-pressing brigade. Tequila Sunrise broke her maiden in April, hasn’t been out since, but returns protected by Baltas in a sign of confidence. She’s a one-paced grinder but against this group that’s not necessarily a bad thing. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Super Klaus on top. 
RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: X 
Use: 1-American Anthem; 4-Flagstaff 

Forecast: The post-position draw – which favors the comfortably drawn Flagstaff – may dictate this second-level allowance main track sprint. On pure form American Anthem is the better of the two, but he’s stuck on the fence while Flagstaff can stalk and pounce or pop and go from the four-hole depending upon the race flow. Flagstaff probably will be the better price of two and continues to train sharply after returning from a layoff to beat a lesser field in early May, but ‘Anthem has three triple digit Beyer figures to go back to and is more than good enough to win off his best effort. However, he could finish only fourth from the rail vs. similar last time out and that was at Santa Anita, where the inside part of the track is not the disadvantage that it is here. 
RACE 3: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-Loud Mouth; 9-Collins Ave; 11-Contagion 

Forecast: Collins Ave is eligible for some of that valuable “ship-and-win” money in his first start since being claimed for $40,000 in New York, so you know he’s cranked and ready with O’Neill securing the services of the top local turf rider, Pratt. Clearly most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the Quality Road gelding is assured that type of ride and could produce a winning late kick in a field that projects to have at least a reasonable pace. Loud Mouth is bred to improve on grass, so we have to use him on that basis alone. The son of Boisterous makes his first start since being transferred to the high percentage Wong barn, and with a series of strong works since mid-May he’s liable to produce a significant forward move. Contagion clearly prefers the front-end but is stuck on the far outside and likely will have to deal with other speed types, so a good trip is hard to envision. His game runner-up effort to Nolde was franked when that one came back to finish a close second in the Oceanside Stakes, so he’s certainly a fit, but during the early stages of the race he’ll need things to break his way. 
RACE 4: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: X 
Single: 1-Catalina Cruiser 

Forecast: Catalina Cruiser won the San Diego Handicap from the rail last year and it will be quite shocking if he doesn’t do the exact same thing in 2019. Fresh from a superior comeback win in the True North Stakes sprinting at Belmont Park last month, the Sadler-trained son of Union Rags stretches out and looks likely to make the running without any real pressure and then dominate when called upon. There’s no wagering value, of course, but if you’re participating in the rolling exotics he’s a logical short-price single. 
RACE 5: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 8-Blue Moonrise 

Forecast: Blue Moonrise was more than eight lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in her recent comeback in a race that earned a giant speed figure. Two bullet workouts since then suggest she’ll produce a forward move, but even if she doesn’t the daughter of Malibu Moon should have little difficult earning her diploma from her lovely outside post. At 5/2 on the morning line and likely to go lower with the switch to Prat, the Baffert-trained filly is a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 6: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 3-S Y Sky; 8-Just Grazed Me; 9-Gypsy Blu 

Forecast: In an abbreviated turf sprint that is loaded with speed, let’s focus on those that are capable of winning from off the pace. S Y Sky has won stakes races on both surfaces and under these conditions the daughter of Grazen looks well-spotted to extend her winning streak to three. She earned a career top speed figure when wearing down the top-class sprinting mare Belvoir Bay in the Monrovia Stakes-G3 in late May and has been kept on edge with a series of easy, steady works at San Luis Rey Downs. We’re expecting her to draft into a stalking position to the head of the lane and then go on with it. Just Grazed Me, the other Alexander/D’Amato entrant, has been away since December but she won her debut so you know she can fire fresh, and a healthy series of recent workouts should have her fit and ready. She doesn’t quite have the tactical speed of her stablemate, but with good racing luck she could be dangerous in final furlong. Gypsy Blu, always most effective as a late-running sprinter and a winner over this course and distance last year, can really fly home if room develops and if the speed types go too fast early. The daughter of Papa Clem continues to look extra sharp in the morning and actually could leave a bit higher than her 5-1 morning line. She’s a “must use” in the exotics. 
RACE 7: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 7-Club Aspen 

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint for state-bred juveniles appeared fairly wide open at first glance, but after a closer examination it seems the first-time starter Club Aspen has quite a bit in his favor. The son of Clubhouse Ride had a nice five-furlong team gate workout at Santa Anita two weeks ago that should have him plenty fit, and from his comfortable outside post he’ll load last and hopefully break first. The Craig Lewis barn already has won a juvenile sprint this meeting (on opening day with a filly by this same sire) and this colt, a $55,000 purchase during the Fasig-Tipton Santa Anita sale where he breezed a quarter pole in 22 3/5 seconds, was produced by a 2-year-old stakes winning dam. In a race in which five of the seven entrants are first time starters, we’ll take a stand and use ‘Aspen (6-1 morning line) as a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 8: Post 5:36 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Keeper Of the Stars; 3-Mucho Unusual; 9-Maxim Rate 

Forecast: The West Coast 3-year-old filly turf division has been unsettled all year and seems to be a different winner in every stakes race. Maybe it’s Maxim Rate’s turn again. A winner of the Senorita Stakes at this one mile trip two runs back, the Callaghan-trained filly was produced too soon, lost ground, and flattened out in the nine-furlong Honeymoon S. in June in her most recent start, but in today’s race, which likely will have a legitimate pace, she seems capable of producing the last run. Mucho Unusual has a found a home grass, will likely enjoy an ideal, ground-saving, pace-stalking trip, and is reunited with Rosario, who the Cal Cup Oaks on her two races back. Fresh from a career-top performance in a strong recent allowance race, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man seems primed for another big effort. Keeper Of the Stars broke a 17-year old course record when winning an allowance race on grass at Golden Gate Fields last month while earning a career top speed figure, and today, in her first start since being transferred to the high-percentage Wong barn, the daughter of Midnight Lute will get tested for class. She’s a devout front-runner leaving from the rail, so there’s no strategy other than to break and go. 
RACE 9: Post 6:05 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Save the Story; 6-Pure Xena 

Forecast: Pure Xena sizzled a quarter in 20 4/5 seconds in the OBS April 2-year-olds in training sale and then brought $370,000 through the ring, quite a price for a daughter of Warrior’s Reward from a modest female family. She’s a very good mover and was especially impressive in recent five furlong team drill at Santa Anita to indicate her readiness. At 4-1 on the morning line, she deserves top billing. In her debut last month at Santa Anita, Save the Story couldn’t handle Amalfi Sunrise – maybe the best 2-year-old filly we’ve seen so far this year – but was six lengths clear of the others while earning a strong speed figure, so we’re expecting the daughter of Will Take Charge to be the one to fear most in this stronger-than-average maiden allowance juvenile five furlong sprint. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Pure Xena on top. 
RACE 10: Post 6:34 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Ronad R; 4-Foray; 5-Battle of Memphis; 10-Overdue 

Forecast: Almost every one of the 10 entrants in this one mile turf affair has an angle or two in their past performance chart to make them a “usable” in rolling exotic play. In a race that appears to be loaded with speed, the natural inclination is to find a closer, but what if one of the speed types clears while the others take back? Best advice is to spread, spread, spread. Ronald R was claimed for $40,000 a year ago May but was turned out; he returns protected by Ellis and has back numbers that make him dangerous. He has the proper style for the race and could spring a surprise if his slow and steady series of workouts has him fit enough. Battle of Memphis is an intriguing Midwest invader eligible for some of that valuable “ship and win” purse money and has numbers that fit and a style that should allow him to be dangerous from the off the pace. Overdue didn’t get the best of trips when a good second in a hot race at this level last month, but he’s not blessed with a great deal of acceleration and likely will need to take the overland journey under Prat to have his best chance. Foray is vastly improved for Sadler, but he’s not likely to be handed his coveted front running trip. If he can switch off and stalk, he can win, but with just seven career starts who really knows yet what he’s capable of?