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Friday, July 26: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 26, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies 
Del Mar 
Friday, July 26, 2019 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-pair-of-day-makers-at-del-mar-on-july-26th-2019/

Today’s Bullet Drills: https://www.xbtv.com/video/bullet-drill/preview-of-races-2-3-and-7-at-del-mar-on-july-26th-2019-based-on-works/ 

RACE 1: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Verified; 6-Champers 

Forecast: Verified was eight lengths clear of the rest when second in a straight maiden affair at Los Alamitos last month and is realistically spotted in this $80,000 maiden claimer for juveniles. With no workouts showing since than race, there has to be a little bit of concern, but if the son of Maclean’s Music is okay, he should be tough to beat unless one of the first-timers pops up. Champers is an intriguing Bay Area invader from a capable outfit. A five furlong workout at Golden Gate Fields in 1:01 flat earlier this month – the second fastest of sixty two – catches the eye, so at 10-1 on the morning line the son of Cairo Prince is worth using. We’ll try to get past this race in our rolling exotics using just these two. 
RACE 2: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Lucky Peridot; 5-Into Chocolate 

Forecast: This main track first-level optional claimer for fillies and mares drew just five starters, with Lucky Peridot, a winner by 14 lengths from maidens at Los Alamitos earlier this month certain to get plenty of play. The Miller-trained filly has worked nicely since that race, retains Prat, and has a good stalking style that should allow her rider to pick a comfortable spot and move when he wants to. Into Chocolate graduated gamely in just her second career outing at Santa Anita, doing so with a speed figure that actually was seven points better (81-74) that what ‘Patriot was assigned in her victory, which in part explains while she’s the slight morning line favorite (8/5 to 9/5) over ‘Peridot. Smith stays aboard and should have this Sise-trained filly just off the pace, ready to pounce when set down. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Lucky Peridot. 
RACE 3: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Portando; 8-Three Ay Em 

Forecast: Portando was caught 3-to-4 wide every step of the way when a strong runner-up under these conditions at Santa Anita in early June, but today he draws the rail and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-pressing trip. The veteran son of Bertrando knows where the wire is (first or second in 14 of 24 career starts), has trained well since arriving at Del Mar, and retains Fuentes. With good racing luck he should be hard to handle. Three Ay Em, a close third in the same race Portando exits, retains Bejarano and should be able to fold over from his outside draw into a stalking position and then have his chance from slightly off the pace. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics but the main punch goes to Portando. 
RACE 4: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Duranga; 7-Road Test 

Forecast: Duranga is unproven around two turns but she certainly likes Del Mar (four starts, two wins, one second) and in her present form the Miller-trained mare could be sharp enough to get the trip. A winner of three of her last four including her last pair with good bug boy Velez aboard, the daughter of Bellamy Road should be comfortably placed outside in a pace-stalking position (just off of Gemagine) and then go on with it when turned loose. Road Test looked good winning a starter’s allowance main track miler at Santa Anita in early June, has trained steadily since, and seems likely to fire another good shot for bug boy Diaz, who gets along with her just fine. She’s another with strong prior form at Del Mart and is the one Duranga has to worry about the most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Duranga on top. 

RACE 5: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Nothing But Heat; 5-Gootingscominpink; 10-Flying to the Line 

Forecast: This grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares looks chaotic on paper, so best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. We’ll go three-deep and hope’s that sufficient. Flying to the Line was worn down late in a maiden sprint at Los Alamitos earlier this month but has the pedigree to get a mile, and with the switch to Prat she probably deserves one more chance after failing as the favorite in her last pair. Gootingscominpink, in the money in all five starts, is overdue for a win and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. Freshened since early June but with a nice series of workouts in recent weeks, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride need some pace up front to have her best chance. In her first start in 11 months, Nothing But Heat launches a comeback for a barn that has excellent stats with layoff runners. This daughter of Unusual Heat ran well over this course last year and is a guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her rail post. 
RACE 6: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: C 
Use: 5-Hypersonic; 9-Union Station 

Forecast: Bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claimers meet over a mile on the main track; it’s a weak affair with little to work with. Hypersonic only has three prior outings so perhaps he has room for some improvement that the others don’t. The son of Distorted Humor is a Churchill Downs invader eligible for the ship-and-win money and was five clear of the rest when second in a similar maiden claimer in his most recent outing. Not much more will be needed to beat this field. Union Station is a 10-race maiden and is thoroughly exposed, but a repeat of his last race – a closing second vs. similar at Los Alamitos – puts him in the hunt. 

RACE 7: Post 7:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 4-Ashleyluvssugar; 6-The Hunted; 8-Brandothebartender 

Forecast: This middle distance turf stakes restricted to state-bred runners appears to have a ton of early speed signed on, so we’ll looking for a closer, and Brandothebartender fits the bill. Known primarily as a late-running sprinter, the son of Tribal Rule has run well on occasion over a distance of ground and today finds a race that sets up nicely for his style. He’s winless in five starts this year and may have lost a step or two as a 6-year-old, but the C. Dollase-trained gelding has looked happy in a pair of recent workouts over the local lawn and be perking up just a bit. With a patient ride from Talamo, he could spring a surprise in the final furlong. Ashleyluvssugar exits the Whittingham S.-G2 and showed a spark of his old form when a close third (subsequent Eddie Read winner United was second). The Game Plan gelding is facing a softer group today over a course he’s won on in the past, so he’s a “must” in rolling exotics. We’ll also toss in The Hunted, a genuine and consistent gelding from the Baltas barn. The son of Unusual Heat has excellent tactical speed to ensure a good trip, and if he brings his best stuff he’ll be right there. 
RACE 8: Post 7:30 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Topaz Time; 4-Empress of Luv; 7-Todos Santos 

Forecast: The finale is a bottom-rung ($8,000) claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep but not with any degree of confidence. Todos Santos, in the money in her last five, has run well sprinting at Del Mar in the past, and looks dangerous from off the pace over a track that has been extremely kind to the rally-wide types so far this season. Topaz Time made the running and kept on going in a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 miler at Los Alamitos earlier this month in her first start in nine months. She shortens to an extended sprint but earned her diploma at six and one-half furlongs, so the turn back shouldn’t be a problem. Additionally, she’s a fit on numbers and won under Fuentes three races back. Empress of Lov, an even third in the same race ‘Santos exits, has never been keen on winning but usually gets a piece of it and may be worth including on a ticket or two.