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Thursday, August 1: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 1, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Thursday, August 1, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Maker: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 1st, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-My Friend Tony; 4-Vander Kelen

Forecast: Vander Kelen exits a pair of much tougher starter’s allowance sprints and drops for the money run in this $20,000 restricted (nw-3) claimer at six and one-half furlongs. Named for the 1963 Rose Bowl MVP quarterback for the Wisconsin Badgers, the M. Glatt-trained son of New Year’s Day holds a decided edge in the speed figure department, so anything close to his best race today lands him in the winner’s circle. My Friend Tony had the misfortunate of drawing the rail but the Mathis-trained gelding should be quick enough to be part of the pace throughout, and if ‘Kelen fails to fire he could take this field a long way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but clearly the main punch must go to Vander Kelen.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Swirling; 2-G Q Covergirl; 4-Rocky Policy

Forecast: This is a stronger than par $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares that offers a number of chances. Rocky Policy returns to her winning level and has the versatility to be successful on the front end or from a stalking position. She’s strong on speed figures and knows where the wire is. G Q Covergirl makes her first start since being claimed for $40,000 by D. O’Neill (terrific stats with this angle, 33% with significant flat-bet profit) so despite failing as the favorite in each of her last four starts, and being winless in three career outings over the Del Mar turf course, the daughter of General Quarters is a “must use” under the assumption that she will move forward for her new connections. Swirling likes this turf course (a win and a second in two career starts) and could be a threat if she gets the patient ride she needs from bug boy Velez. Her career top Beyer speed figure was accomplished over this course and distance last year, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere in your exotics.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Scarlet

Forecast: Scarlet earned by far her career top speed figure when a close third in a similar straight maiden event at Santa Anita last time out and nothing more will be needed to graduate today in this main track miler. Two bullet six furlong workouts over the local strip since raced indicates she’s very likely to step forward again, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the daughter of Uncle Mo probably will be too short to play other than to use her a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Sophie Antoinette; 6-Miss Flawless; 7-Khairiya

Forecast: Sophie Antoinette is an intriguing Kentucky shipper with several positive factors in her chart. Eligible for the valuable ship-and-win added purse money, the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid has speed figures that have risen with each of her seven career starts and she makes her California debut with blinkers on following a bullet five furlong turf drill around dogs over this course last week. The Wong-trained filly likes to settle and blast home, and with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase she should be along in time at 7/2 on the morning line. While we like her strongly on top, there are others to consider as back-ups or savers. Khairiya remains well above her claim level in a show of confidence by D’Amato for her local debut after arriving from Churchill Downs. She, too, is seeking bonus money from the ship-and-win program and could be dangerous if she can establish the pace without pressure. She’s a fit on figures and sports a healthy local series of workouts. Miss Flawless, a $50,000 claim by P. Eurton out of a good third-place finish in a five furlong sprint in June at Santa Anita, stretches out again and projects to be forwardly placed throughout. It’s possible that she’s more effective around one turn, but she was a useful sort in France last year and probably has some improvement in her.

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Bam Bam Lil River; 4-Naughty Tiger; 8-Time for Suzzie

Forecast: This modest claiming abbreviated sprint is restricted to 3-year-old fillies and drew a field loaded with question marks. We’ll include three in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit out the race. Time for Suzzie returns to her claim level, lands the cozy outside post and is reunited with “win rider” R. Bejarano, so everything would seem to be in order for a top effort. However, the Hess-trained filly has never run well over the deep Del Mar main track – she’s been unplaced in three starts - so she’s no slam dunk to reproduce her best effort. Bam Bam Lil River, a $20,000 S. Knapp claim last month at Los Alamitos, faded when winding up fourth at even money in that race in her second straight defeat as a short priced choice. The barn hits at 22% with first-off-the-claim plays, so on that angle alone she’s worth using. Naughty Tiger won the CTBA Stakes here last year as a 2-year-old but today is being tossed away for $20,000, not a good sign. At 8-1 on the morning line she may be worth including on your ticket but this pattern certainly isn’t encouraging.

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Unapologetic

Forecast: Unapologetic is the proven marathoner in this 11-furlong turf event for first-level optional claimer and the Temple City gelding, after chasing tougher foes in all of his recent starts gets some much needed class relief while returning to his favorite course. Freshened since late May and retaining “win rider” Franco, he should be within range throughout in what promises to be a galloper’s race and then have his chance to exert his superiority when it matters in the final quarter pole. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Cat’s Desire; 7-Gallantlystreaming; 9-Archana

Forecast: The three we’ve listed as the prime contenders in this bottom-rung $20,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares aren’t trustworthy, but there’s a decent chance that one of them will break through with a win. Archana is a Bay Area invader for J. Wong, who usually hits at an extremely percentage up north but is winless so far this meeting. She’s managed to hit the board in both of her dirt starts and that alone makes her the one to beat. Gallantlystreaming blew a clear lead in mid-stretch at Los Alamitos vs. similar last time out when finishing second; she’s had nine chances but has winning connections (Miller/Velez) so she’s a “must use.” Cat’s Desire also managed to finish second in her most recent appearance and may try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail. She had a good recent half mile workout over this main track, so at the very least we know she’s doing well.