Log In

Wednesday, August 14: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 14, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Two Top Plays From Del Mar on August 14th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Deckology; 7-Heraclitus

Forecast: Deckology had his number taken down in his winning debut after he caused interference in the stretch, but the effort was good, the number was better than par, and this raise from maiden $32,000 to $40,000 is of no concern. Today’s extra half furlong should only help, so there’s really no reason the son of Point of Entry can’t come back and cross the wire first again, assuming he minds his manners. Heraclitus probably deserves another chance after a rough debut last month. The S. Callaghan-trained colt got some play (4-1) but was bumped off stride at the start, fell far back, then finished mildly without getting into the picture. He’ll add blinkers today, switches to M. Pedroza (who’s won a few races for this barn) and had trained like he had some ability prior to his first outing.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C
Single: 7-Adulting

Forecast: Adulting draws the comfortable outside post, is reunited with bug boy J. Velez, will benefit from a weight break, and catches a woeful field of bottom-rung maiden-claiming fillies and mares. Her first race wasn’t bad, her next race wasn’t much, but somebody has to win and if it’s not her, it could be anybody. You can use her as a rolling exotic single, spread the race, or better yet, pass it.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Dukes Up; 5-Sheer Flattery; 7-Rocko’s Wheel

Forecast: Rocko’s Wheel returned off a 15-month layoff protected in an allowance race at Los Alamitos and finished a fair third while shaking off the rust. This drop into $32,000 is a realistic move for the 7-year-old gelding for a barn that has terrific stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle, and with any type of forward move the son of Grazen seems capable of registering his first win since the fall of 2016. Sheer Flattery remains above his claim level for W. Spawr after failing to land a blow in a fast, highly-rated starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos last month. He’s a strong fit on numbers and should draft into a comfortable second flight early position and then have every chance from there. Dukes Up also exits a fairly hot race, retains K. Desormeaux, and is the best of the closing types. Any one of the three appear capable of winning, so we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Rocko’s Wheel on top.

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Breezy Bee; 6-Heathers Grey; 9-Flying to the Line

Forecast: Heathers Grey, now in the M. McCarthy barn, has improved her Beyer speed figure with each start and has plenty of room for continued improvement. A solid second behind a next-out winner in her most recent start in early June at Santa Anita, she sports a couple of sharp recent works, retains regular rider A. Gryder, and will likely draft into a stalking spot in a race that projects to have a better than average early pace. Breezy Bee had little chance the way the race flow developed into a mini-marathon affair vs. tougher first-level allowance foes last month but this turn back to a middle distance event in a race that projects to have some speed up front should bring out her best. The main concern is her lack of success over the Del Mar turf course – she’s 5-0-0-1 – but under these conditions she could be heard from late. Flying to the Line stretched out for the first time and pulverized a maiden special weight state-bred field earlier this meeting. While visually impressive, the number came up light, she must leave from the far outside post today, may not be the controlling speed (though if she wants it badly enough she can get it), and probably will be a lower price than she should be. Still, the Prat/Miller combo always has to be respected, so we’ll include her in our rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Anniversary Sale; 5-Afternoon Heat

Forecast: Afternoon Heat, and Anniversary Sale exit the same race, a similar maiden $50,000 sprint here last month, and after crossing the wire second and third, respectively, they meet again in a race in which both project to produce forward moves. In fact, five of the seven entrants were in that July 24 affair won by Jen Go Unchained. We were quite impressed with Afternoon Heat, who was buried on the deep rail while forcing the early pace, slipped back and appeared to be fading away at the quarter pole, then re-rallied and wound up a clear second while displaying a considerable amount of moxie. The J. Hollendorfer-trained colt gets a better draw today, regains bug boy J. Velez, and is likely to be the controlling speed or at least pressing the issue from the better outside lanes. Anniversary Sale was making his first start in 11 months and appeared to be in need of the outing; he’s likely to be fitter and tougher today for the J. Wong barn and shows a nice half mile breeze over this track since the race. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics, but the main push goes to Afternoon Heat.

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Just Grazed Me

Forecast: In her first start since December, Just Grazed Me turned in an excellent performance when third in the Daisycutter Handicap over this course and distance last month, and today the daughter of Grazen drops into a second-level allowance sprint following a bullet half-mile drill around dogs on turf since that outing. We’re expecting a forward move, but even without improvement the P. D’Amato-trained filly will be hard to beat. She’s a logical rolling exotic single and almost certainly will go lower than her morning line of 5/2.

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Boy Howdy; 8-Papa Turf

Forecast: The finale is a bottom-rung ($8,000) abbreviated sprint that has two main players. Papa Turf is a disturbing zero-for-11 lifetime over the Del Mar main track but he did run well when third vs. similar last month and today shortens up a furlong while projecting to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s not necessarily one to count on but rates top billing by default. Boy Howdy is a big class dropper from the J. Carava barn, but he’s really just returning to his claim level, where he belongs. He’s probably most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and given that type of ride he will be bearing down in the final furlong.