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Sunday, August 18: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 18, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-18th-2019/ 
Today’s Bullet Drills: https://www.xbtv.com/video/bullet-drill/preview-of-races-1-4-7-and-8-at-del-mar-on-august-18th-2019-based-on-works/

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Matera; 7-Stellar Sound 

Forecast: Two highly-regarded daughters of Tapit debut in today’s opener, a six furlong sprint for 2-year-olds. Stellar Sound has trained like one of B. Baffert’s better prospects and had the good fortune of landing the cozy outside post, whereas her chief rival, Matera, from the J. Hollendorfer barn, must leave from the rail. Given the advantage at the draw, ‘Sound may have an edge over Materia, a $1.4 million yearling purchase and a half-sister to BC Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map and to the Grade-1 winning two-year-old Not This Time. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Stellar Sound. 
RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Baby Ice; 4-Todos Santos; 6-C C the Bartender 

Forecast: C C the Bartender lands the good outside post in her first start since being claimed by S. Sherman and also sports the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle. She projects to enjoy a good second-flight, in-the-clear trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home at a nice price. Todos Santos comes off a game win for $8,000 earlier this meeting and moves up a couple of notches following a J. Metz claim (solid stats with this angle). On numbers she’s good enough to handle the class hike, and as a prototype late-running sprinter she’ll well-suited for this six and one-half furlong trip. Baby Ice drops to a realistic spot and is good enough to win off her best effort, but her record over the Del Mar main track (5-0-0-0) is hard to ignore. We’ll throw here in on a ticket or two as a back-up, nothing more. 

RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Vintage Hollywood; 8-Cosa Nostra 

Forecast: Vintage Hollywood had a recent sprint prep over the track and today drops from $25,000 to $16,000 while stretching out to a distance he should be able to handle (his only prior two-turn try came last year against tougher company on grass). The V. Garcia-trained gelding earned a career-top speed figure in his most recent race and nothing more will be needed to beat this restricted (nw-2) field. Cosa Nostra is comfortably drawn outside but has never been big on winning (he’s 1-for-23 with 12 seconds and thirds). We’ll make him a contender by default in a below par race for the race. 
RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 4-Flagstaff 

Forecast: Flagstaff squandered a perfect trip when worn down late and finishing second to American Anthem in a strong race for this level here last month but a similar effort today should be more than good enough to handle this assignment. The J. Sadler-trained gelding is winless in three starts over the Del Mar main track – a minor concern – but shouldn’t have much trouble today with anything close to his best race. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower and is a logical rolling exotic single. 
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Ted W.; 7-Matriculate; 8-Twirling Tiger 

Forecast: Matriculate takes a significant class drop after failing at even money in a $25,000 claimer in mid-May at Santa Anita. Seven furlongs is absolutely his favorite distance and the Spawr barn has strong stats with layoff runners; on the other hand, the son of Lucky Pulpit is winless in five starts at Del Mar. We like him on top but not as a single. Twirling Tiger gets the best of the draw in his first start since being claimed by J. Carava for $8,000 earlier this meeting. He’s always preferred to run second rather than win, but he does have a prior victory over the Del Mar main track and gets ideal conditions today for an improved effort. Ted W is buried on the rail but is fast enough on speed figures to pose a threat and may be quick enough to make the lead with a clean break. 

RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Jetovator; 4-Summer Fun 

Forecast: Jetovator has hit the board in all four career starts and may be ready to break through with a win today in this state-bred maiden special weight abbreviated sprint on the main track. His speed figures are average at best but he makes a monumental jockey switch to F. Prat and on that basis alone should be hard to deny. Summer Fan his bred for much speed (Smiling Tiger) and shows a work tab that indicates he has some ability. However, the C. Gaines barn rarely wins with a first-timer so the best we can do is use him on a ticket or two as a back-up. 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Prince Earl; 5-Bowies Hero 

Forecast: Bowies Hero has returned to top form, having won the Eddie Read S.-G2 over this course last month impressively and then working in sharp style since to remain on edge. This shortening to a mile won’t be an issue; in fact, it’s probably his best trip. F. Prat, who rode him for the first time in the Eddie Read, returns, so we’re expecting a similar if not better performance today. Prince Earl has been away since finishing fourth in the Hollywood Derby-G1 here last December and remains eligible to the second allowance condition, so this aggressive placement by P. D’Amato tells us that the Paddy O’Prado gelding must be returning at least as well if not better than he left. Recent local workouts have been outstanding, so at 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket somewhere.

RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Magic on Tap; 3-Julius 

Forecast: Julius has really gotten good for O’Neill with Beyer speed figures that keep advancing from race to race. Most recently the Tapit gelding trounced a starter’s allowance field by more than 11 lengths with number that should make her hard to beat in this first-level allowance race either on the front end or from a stalking position, whichever R. Bejarano prefers. A small concern is that recent workouts haven’t been scintillating, but that may be just him. The main contention comes from the B. Baffert-trained comebacker Magic On Tap, a smart winner at Del Mar in his debut as a two-year-old but unraced since. The recent workouts indicate he’s fit and ready and his potential may be unlimited. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Julius on top because he’s had the benefit of recent racing. 
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 7-Me Me Mo My; 9-Ameerah B; 11-Miss Bigley 

Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares over a mile. Use as many as your budget allows. Ameerah B missed by a head when last seen in a turf miler at Santa Anita in late May and returns for J. Sadler with blinkers on and R. Bejarano in the saddle. She has a good stalking style and should have every chance when the pressure is turned on into the lane. Miss Bigley had fractions to run at and closed willingly to be second in a maiden turf affair in late June. Due to the race-shape, that effort might have flattered the daughter of Gemologist but she did earn a career top speed figure and with another forward move today should be in the picture. Mo Me Mo My earned a career top speed figure when third in a similar affair last month and if she can duplicate that performance today she’ll be a threat again. Her previous form was ordinary, but it was her first try around two turns and maybe she’s wanted to be a router all along.