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Friday, August 23: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 23, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, August 23, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Saratoga on August 23rd, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Deeply Analytical; 9-Single Verse

Forecast: Single Verse showed some ability when a solid runner-up in an off-the-turf sprint in the mud last month and today gets her chance to show what she can do in a similar state-bred maiden special weight affair on grass. Almost six lengths clear of the rest when earning a good number, the daughter of Mineshaft probably won’t need much more to beat this field, unless there’s a good thing waiting in the wings. Deeply Analytical could be that good thing. The daughter of Majestic City was all the rage at the OBS March Sale where she smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, the fastest preview in the sale, and while she hasn’t been scintillating in her a.m. preps at Saratoga for C. Brown she did look pretty good working around dogs on grass last week to indicate that she’ll handle the lawn just fine. With a clean break from the rail, she could be hard to catch. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while giving a very slight edge on top to Single Verse.

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Klickitat

Forecast: Klikitat made his first start since last December in a similar state-bred middle distance maiden turf event and was beaten just a head despite taking the overland route from the top of the stretch to the wire. It was a good effort, all things considered, and in his second off the layoff for J. Jerkens (superior stats with this angle) the son of First Samurai should be along in time. He’s been very good in both of his grass outings, pretty poor in his two dirt starts, but today’s conditions should bring out the best of him. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Newly Minted; 6-Kid Is Frosty

Forecast: Newly Minted failed at 70 cents on the dollar when beaten by Kid Is Frosty in the New York Stallions Stakes on grass in June at Belmont Park but she’s unbeaten in three prior starts on the main track and today she gets her preferred surface in the Fleet Indian Stakes over nine furlongs for New York-bred 3-year-old fillies. The L. Rice-trained daughter of Central Banker has a good stalking style and should be able to get the trip in her first try around two turns. If she can’t, Kid Is Frosty, a state-bred stakes winner two-turning on grass last month, is the logical alternative. Certainly bred to run this far but possibly preferring grass, the daughter of Frost Giant does her best running on the front end and gate-to-wire tactics likely will be employed. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Treu Grace; 4-Lord Camden; 8-Scilly Cay; 10-Hold My Call

Forecast: Scilly Cay has done some sneaky good work in the morning for the L. Rice barn (fair-to-okay with first-timers) and seems ready to win right off the bat in this five-and-one-half furlong dash. The son of Fed Biz polished off a good work tab with a five furlong spin in 1:00 1/5 seconds six days ago to have him fit and ready, and with J. Ortiz taking the call this homebred colt has the look of a live item. True Grace is a first-timer bred for speed (Competitive Edge) for the always-dangerous Clement-Rosario team but had the misfortune of drawing the rail. If he leaves with his field and can secure a good early position, he should be a strong fit based on a gate work last month (48 2/5 seconds) that looks pretty good on paper. Hold My Call isn’t really bred to sprint but has displayed flashes of speed in the morning and might get a bit overlooked on the tote. The barn doesn’t often win with first-timers but this colt moves like he has some ability and should have clearly sailing from the outside. Lord Camden has the benefit of a prior run, having closed with interest to finish sixth, beaten three lengths, in a turf sprint earlier this month. If he can handle the kick back that he’s certain to encounter on dirt, he might make some noise in the final furlong.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-Munchkin Money

Forecast: With the scratching of Fifty Five, this year’s edition of the Yaddo Stakes should fall in the lap of Munchkin Money. In her first start since being transferred to the C. Clement barn the veteran mare registered a strong overnight win at Belmont Park in late June and has been kept on edge with a healthy work pattern since. She’s likely to settle into a comfortable second flight position before launch what we expect will be a winning bid from the quarter pole home. In what is now a six-runner race, we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Preferred Outcome; 10-Bourbon Mission; 12-Call Me Harry

Forecast: Call Me Harry shipped in from Monmouth Park and graduated at first asking over this course and distance last month while earning a number that makes him tough right back in this first-level state-bred allowance sprint on turf. The Street Sense gelding flashed excellent speed to secure a good stalking spot to the head of the lane and then responded when called upon to graduate with authority. A healthy, steady series of drills since that race indicates that a forward move is likely. Bourbon Mission, second off the claim for J. Sharp and a solid third in a similar affair earlier this month, is a fit on speed figures, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and has a right to continue his improving pattern. He’ll be doing his best work from off the pace. Preferred Outcome is a genuine and consistent Finger Lakes shipper with numbers that match up well with the others. He’s hit the board in both of his prior turf races and should be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Call Me Harry.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-Fierce Lady; 6-My Italian Rabbi

Forecast: Fierce Lady and My Italian Rabbi finished noses apart in the Stillwater Stakes here last month and they meet again, with ‘Lady trying to make amends for losing the head-bob at 35 cents on the dollar. Her Beyer speed figure dropped 12 points off her scintillating maiden debut win, so it’ll be interesting to see if she can bounce back today. ‘Rabbi, on the other hand, improved her Beyer number by 25 points off her maiden score, and while we’re not expecting a similar leap today her workouts since that race indicate she’s continuing to thrive. Either one could win, so rather than split hairs we’ll pass the race and use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-City Man

Forecast: We loved the way City Man won at first asking and expect that he’ll run even better with today an extra furlong to work with. The son of Mucho Macho Man showed moxie rallying through and around horses to win going away in his debut for the Clement-Rosario team and has done very well since, as indicated by his bullet five furlong workout over the training track last week in 1:02 2/54 seconds, fastest of eight for the distance. There are other nice prospects in here as well – Cleon Jones is another that should appreciate the extra ground and both Sky of Hook and Listentoyourheart finished noses apart over a sloppy surface in the Rick Violette S. – but City Man may have the highest ceiling, so we’ll make him our top pick, straight play, and rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Offering Plan

Forecast: Offering Plan may have tried to bite off more than he could chew in the Forbidden Apple Stakes-G3 last month and wound up seventh, beaten just three lengths, with a less than ideal trip but today returns to the state-bred ranks and should get back on the beam. Winless in three starts this year but with Beyer speed figures that remain very strong, the C. Brown-trained 7-year-old has been second in each of the last two renewals of the West Point Stakes so we’re thinking it’s about time he won one. He’s a deep closer that can be vulnerable to a slow pace and traffic trouble but with all things considered he should be find a way to get up in time as a rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bankit; 7-Not That Brady

Forecast: This looks like a rematch of the New York Derby at Finger Lakes last month won by Bankit, with Not That Brady, the 7/5 favorite in that race, finishing second after cutting out the fractions and leading until deep stretch. This group seems to take turns, and maybe Bankit just had his, but the son of Central Banker has two excellent races over the Saratoga main track on his resume so we’re expecting another major effort from the S. Asmussen-trained 3-year-old. We anticipate seeing him somewhere in mid-pack, saving ground, ready to launch his bid when called upon. Not That Brady does his best running on the front end and if can establish the running without being sent hard he could take this field a long way. However, he’s winless in five starts this year and his prior outing at the Spa last year wasn’t much. We’ll use him as a back-up, nothing more.

RACE 11: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Wacky Pal; 4-Sobersick N Sorry; 11-Curlin’s Legacy

Forecast: The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming turf router. Use as many as you can afford to; we’ll try to survive going three deep. Wacky Pal drops into a seller for the first time, removes blinkers, switches to J. Ortiz, is drawn comfortably inside, and will be tough if he can inherit the role as the controlling speed. Sobersick N Sorry, first off a $25,000 claim for M. Miceli and adding blinkers, stretches out for the first time and seems likely to insure a decent pace. With El Prado on the bottom, he might move up in his first start on grass. Curlin’s Legacy is a nine-race maiden that could be dangerous from off the pace if he can get some decent early fractions to run at. His fourth place finish two runs back charts pretty well with these.