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Saturday, August 31: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 31, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-two-top-plays-at-saratoga-on-august-31st-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 4-Structor; 6-Sul Moon 

Forecast: This maiden two-turn turf event for juveniles came up unusually light. Structor (2-1) is the morning line favorite and he’s trained okay, not great, but great probably won’t be required to beat this field. The son of Palace Malice will get plenty of play due to his connections and pedigree, and he did bring $850,000 in the OBS March sale, so we’ll put him on top mostly by default. Sul Moon ran well to be second in his debut over the Saratoga grass but caught a weak field in a slowly run affair, so it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about the Malibu Moon colt even though he seems certain improve off the effort. The W. Mott-trained colt appears to be the best of the known element. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence in a race that we’ll probably otherwise pass. 
RACE 2: Post 1:03 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 2-No Regrets; 6-Honey Won’t 

Forecast: Honey Won’t returns to the claiming ranks, retains J. Rosario, and has speed figures over this course and distance that should be good enough to beat this field. However, he’s even money on the morning line and certainly offers no value at that price. No Regrets, popular at the claim box of late and now in the D. Magner barn, moves up from the $30,000 ranks to this $40,000 level following a nearly two-month vacation and may come back a better version of himself for his new connections. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding finished second in his only prior start over the local lawn and looks quick enough in this spot to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. 
RACE 3: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 3-Break Even 

Forecast: Break Even is undefeated in six starts and is listed on the morning line at 50 cents on the dollar to extend her streak to seven in this year’s edition of the Prioress S.-G2 at six furlongs for 3-year-old fillies. On numbers she’s a standout, and while she’s quick enough to control the race from start to finish she can stalk and pounce as well if the race flow dictates. She’s a rolling exotic single in a race that offers no wagering value. 
RACE 4: Post 2:09 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Pagliacci; 8-Mustaaqeem 

Forecast: Mustaaqeem was entered and scratched from yesterday’s Lucky Coin Stakes to run in this far easier second-level allowance turf sprint and the Grade-1 winning South African import should be cranked up and ready to show his best stuff in his S. debut. The K. McLaughlin-trained horse, away since April of 2018, is a first-time Lasix user with a series of good works over the Godolphin all-weather track that has him fit and ready. Pagliacci is a hard-hitting gelding with strong speed figures but doesn’t have tactical speed and will need some help up front for his late kick to be effective. The L. Rice-trained gelding has a prior win over the course and solid recent form, so we’ll include him a ticket or two as a backup with the main push going to Mustaaqeem. 
RACE 5: Post 2:42 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Famished 

Forecast: Famished broke slowly and steadied at the start, fell far back, then commenced his rally extremely wide into the lane and continue gamely to the wire to wind up third beaten three lengths in a legitimate race for straight maidens three weeks ago.. J. Rosario stays aboard the son of Uncle Mo, who seems sure to improve with that effort behind and with today’s extra furlong to work with. If he breaks well from the rail, the J. Kimmel-trained colt should be within range throughout and then have every chance seal the deal. In a race in which the first time starters don’t excite, we’ll make Famished a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 6: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Good Governance; 3-Rinaldi 

Forecast: Top to bottom a chance in this year’s edition of the Saranac S.-G3, which has been reduced to five runners with the scratching of Tracksmith. Rinaldi moves up from state-bred competition into open company and clearly is tackling a tougher group, but the Posse gelding has produced rising speed figures with each outing and could be up to the task. His win over this course and distance in the New York Stallions Stakes earlier this meeting was visually pleasing, and in a race with questionable pace the J. Bond-trained sophomore will be handy enough to handle any type of race flow. Good Governance won at first asking like a high potential type and could easily take this class hike from maiden to graded stakes in stride. In a small field, the C. Brown-trained son of Kingman projects to be closer to the pace than he was in his debut in a race that might be determined by the runner with the best turn of foot from the top of the stretch to the wire. That might be him. 

RACE 7: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Three Technique; 7-Soviet 

Forecast: Runner-up in both starts as the favorite but with rising speed figures, Three Technique has the proper style for this seven furlong distance and should be ready to earn his diploma. The J. Englehart-trained juvenile was more than six lengths clear of the rest in his most recent start and nothing more should be needed to handle this field, which on paper doesn’t appear to be overly strong. Soviet was off a bit slowly and then had a mild late bid to wind up a non-threatening fourth in his debut while earning a fair speed figure. The son of Super Saver certainly is eligible to improve with that race behind him coupled with the blinkers that are being added today. Preference on top goes to Three Technique but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Policy Option; 3-Mr Jaggers 

Forecast: Mr Jaggers and Policy Option have the benefit of prior experience over the Saratoga turf course and while neither can be considered a world beater they are the ones to beat in a moderate maiden special weight grass affair for 2-year-olds. Mr Jaggers displayed a one-paced grinding style when third in his debut here last month and has every right to produce a forward move, while Policy Option, a distant second with a so-so speed figure in his only outing, is an Empire Maker colt trained by C. Brown that also is likely to move forward, at least a bit. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, and both should be included in rolling exotic play in a rather that doesn’t offer much wagering value. 

RACE 9: Post 4:54 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 3-Arrifana 

Forecast: Arrifana could not have been more impressive than she was winning her debut at Laurel earlier this month and today we’ll find out if she belongs on the Big Circuit. The daughter of Curlin settled in mid-pack to the turn, then gobbled up her rivals on the far outside into the lane and drew off to register a 10-length victory without being asked for anything close to her best. Two bullet workouts at Fair Hill since that win shows that she’s ready to produce a forward move, one that should be good enough to take the class hike in stride. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 10: Post 5:27 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 4-Santa Monica; 5-Mrs. Sippy 

Forecast: Santa Monica received an ill-advised ride from J. Ortiz in the Waya Stakes-G3 earlier this month as the favorite and finished third, beaten a length, when certainly best after encountering severe traffic trouble at a critical stage of the race. With better luck today the English-bred mare can make amends at this 11 furlong mini-marathon trip that she excels at. That said, the gamble belongs to Mrs. Sippy, an interesting European invader from the G. Motion barn. A listed stakes winner and group placed in England last year, she was far below from in a couple of 2019 outings but will race with Lasix today and has been working strongly at Fair Hill to indicate she’s fit and ready for a major effort in her U.S. debut. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and the due to price considerations press using extra tickets keying Mrs. Sippy on top. 
RACE 11: Post 6:00 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Preservationist; 7-Yoshida; 9-Tom’s d’Etat 

Forecast: Yoshida has two exceptional races on his resume at Saratoga, his win in the Woodward S.-G1 last year and his excellent runner-up performance behind McKinzie in the Whitney S.-G1 here earlier this month. Either effort, if repeated today, will make the Japanese-bred horse very difficult to deny, but it should be noted that the W. Mott-trained 5-year-old has been beaten in each of his last three starts in which he went favored. Preservationist was brilliant winning the Suburban S.-G2 at Belmont Park in July but flat as a pancake in the subsequent Whitney S.-G1 over this track and distance in his next outing, fading readily in the final furlong to finish fourth, beaten almost eight lengths, while failing to change leads. If the “good” version of this J. Jerkens-trained son of Arch shows up today, he can win, and at 7/2 on the morning line he’s worth including in rolling exotic play. Tom’s d’Etat has recorded three straight triple-digit Beyer speed figures, most recently when winning the restricted Alydar Stakes over the Saratoga main track in early August. These are tougher, of course, but the son of Smart Strike is unbeaten in three starts at the Spa and for that reason alone is worth including, as least as a backup, in rolling exotic play. 
RACE 12: Post 6:33 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Airtouch; 7-Fantastry; 8-Free Enterprise 

Forecast: Free Enterprise is the 7/5 morning line favorite and deserves to be based on two good races in similar company plus strong, rising speed figures. Beaten at even money last time out while more than three lengths clear of the rest, the Curlin gelding seems likely to continue his improving pattern as he gains additional experience for C. Brown. Fantastry has looked rather nice in the morning leading up to his debut for K. McPeek and is worth consideration at his morning line of 12-1. There’s no doubt he has ability, but it’s possible he’ll do better with more distance for a barn that isn’t known for winning with first time starters. Airtouch was nosed out in his only prior outing two years ago here in a promising debut performance, but hasn’t been seen since, and his recent comeback workout haven’t been terribly exciting. We wonder if the Tapit colt will be effective off the long layoff and perhaps need a race, so we’ll include him as a backup on a ticket or two but that’s all.