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Sunday, September 01: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

September 1, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-day-makers-at-saratoga-on-september-1st-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 4-Bahamian Prince; 5-More Thunder; 8-Summer Sangria 

Forecast: This grass grab bag for restricted maiden 2-year-olds looks a bit treacherous, so we suggest you include as many in your rolling exotics as your budget allows. Bahamian Prince was well-meant in his debut, but after looming a threat in mid-stretch lost his punch in the final furlong and wound up third. Claimed for $50,000 out of the race by G. Weaver, the son of Bohamian Squall is protected today in a sign of confidence and switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. Can’t say he has any turf breeding to fall back on, but that doesn’t mean he won’t handle it. Summer Sangria, a filly tackling the boys, flashed good zip to make the pace in her debut and led the way into the lane before blowing a clear lead inside the furlong pole to wind up second. She may be the quickest of the quick and could stick better with a race under her belt. More Thunder, a one-paced third on dirt in his debut, retains J. Rosario, switches to turf, and has as much right to improve with experience as any of the others. 
RACE 2: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 2-Elegant Rose; 7-Summer Fantasy 

Forecast: Elegant Rose is a seven-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but she returns to the maiden claiming ranks in this modest $30,000 seller for fillies and mares and could get brave if she can establish a clear early lead, which on paper she seems capable of doing. The Monmouth Park shipper looks like the best of a poor lot, but at 7/5 on the morning line won’t be offering any wagering value. Summer Fantasy has rising speed figures - though she’s still pretty slow – and might be close enough to pick up ‘Rose if she goes into her fading act in the final furlong. In a race that we won’t be participating in, both should be included in rolling exotic play but with a low degree of confidence. 
RACE 3: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Northern Haze; 6-Laughing Manners 

Forecast: Northern Haze won as best from a maiden $20,000 field here last month and may prove to be a profitable acquisition by S. Asmussen, who hits at a strong 20% with first-off-the-claim plays. The son of Orb moves up a level in this restricted (nw-2) sprint, switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider R. Santana, Jr., and looks capable of producing the last run right back. Laughing Manners just broke his maiden for $40,000 against theoretically a tougher field than the one Northern Haze defeated but earned a considerably lower speed figure, so this drop into the $25,000 ranks is warranted. Drawn comfortably outside, the C. Baker-trained colt retains J. Rosario and should draft into a comfortable stalking position and have his chance. Preference on top goes to Northern Haze, but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 4: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 7-My Galina; 9-Honey I’m Good 

Forecast: This is a toughie, a turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that offers several possibilities and scenarios. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and hope to get by, but you may find the need to spread deeper. Honey I’m Good, away since last December, returns for S. Asmussen and shows a Belmont Park work tab that should have her fit enough for a good effort off the bench. Unproven on grass and not necessarily bred to improve on the lawn, the daughter of Shackleford nevertheless is comfortably drawn outside and can pop and go or stalk and pounce. Numbers-wise she’s a fit and she did win her debut by more than 13 lengths, so we know she can fire fresh. You’d have to think that she’s better than her morning line of 8-1. My Galina was a disappointing fifth in a listed stakes over this course and distance last month but her previous two races chart quite nicely in this spot so we’ll expect the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to bounce back today. She appears to be most comfortable on the front end. 
RACE 5: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 4-O’Bushido; 8-Bayern’s Mirage 

Forecast: Here’s a messy maiden claimer for juveniles. They two we’ve listed above have a right to run well, but that’s about all we can say. O’Bushido is a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn that brought $100,000 as a yearling but a year later shows up for a $50,000 tag, not exactly a ringing endorsement. The son of First Samurai ships in from Monmouth Park for a trainer that hits at a strong 23% with debut runners, so there are mixed signals. Maybe he can run a bit, maybe not. Bayern’s Mirage flashed good speed before fading in the lane in a similar maiden claimer last month but adds Lasix today and could stick around a lot longer. 
RACE 6: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Bears Mafia; 6-Always Forgiven 

Forecast: Bears Mafia broke his maiden in fairly convincing fashion last month while carrying a $25,000 tag and today goes first-off-the-claim for T. Amoss (powerful stats with this angle) in this $32,000 seller restricted to 3-year-olds. His style fits this extended sprint distance so we’ll expect a similar effort from the son of Verrazano, one that may be good enough to win right back. Always Forgiven is comfortably drawn outside and should be able to pick his spot in this elongated dash. The California shipper, now in the R. Atras barn, takes a nosedive in class so there’s always a question of condition but on pure numbers he’s strictly the one to beat. 
RACE 7: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Laughable; 3-Bridal Path; Sparkling Sky 

Forecast: Bridal Path finished eighth in her debut under these conditions but was victimized by a brutal trip and really never had a chance to show her best form. Let’s hope for clear sailing today, and if the daughter of Hard Spun settles nicely and has room to kick home in the final quarter of a mile she could pull off the upset at 6-1 on the morning line. J. Rosario stays aboard for Shug. Sparkling Sky, third in the same race Bridal Path exits, had a good trip and every chance but hails from stable that has excellent stats with second-timers (27%). The T. Pletcher-trained daughter of More Than Ready retains J. Ortiz and should be within striking range throughout. Laughable, another Pletcher entrant, makes her debut with a decent series of workouts and from the rail might try gate-to-wire tactics. The daughter of Distorted Humor is bred more for main track speed than she is for long-distance turf, so we assume she’s shown some talent in a.m. drills on grass. 
RACE 8: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Day Dayenu; 10-Slam Dunk 

Forecast: Day Dayenu has plenty of speed – much more than her moderate workouts might lead you to believe – and if she leaves cleanly from the rail the daughter of Into Mischief could produce a serious effort in this seven furlong maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. This barn does very well with debut runners and they usually perform better in the afternoon than in the morning. At 7/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top but also include the second-timer Slam Dunk, a troubled fifth in her debut but likely to improve today from her outside draw that should insure a comfortable trip. She’s another daughter of Into Mischief that appears to have a fair share of promise. 
RACE 9: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Here Comes Jackie; 5-Enjay’s Brass; 7-Dance Till Dawn 

Forecast: Today’s ninth race is a raffle for high-priced claiming 3-year-old fillies going long on the lawn. Dance Till Dawn returns to the claiming ranks and looks to be properly spotted to regain her winning form. She made the running in both of her last two starts and paid the price late; today, with patient handle combined with the class drop the P. Serpe-trained daughter of Verrazano should have more late punch. Enjay’s Brass shows up in a $75,000 seller for the first time following a career top speed figure when third in a first-level allowance event over this course and distance. In a race restricted to her own age group she can lay fairly close to the pace but also make a run from off of it, so J. Ortiz has the option after they sort themselves out. Here Comes Jackie, in the money in her last pair with speed figures that fit very nicely at this level on this circuit, should get a good ground-saving trip from her inside draw and picks up J. Castellano. You have to include her somewhere. 
RACE 10: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 6-Carrizo; 7-Smoken Deb 

Forecast: Smoken Deb, freshened since March, hit the board in a pair of listed stakes when last seen at Gulfstream Park during the winter and returns in a proper spot for J. Thomas, who boasts amazing stats with layoff runners (37% with a flat-bet profit). The daughter of Cairo Prince is eligible to this starter’s allowance condition because she broke her maiden for a $40,000 tag in January at Tampa Bay Downs. Though she’s facing older foes for the first time, this group should be well within her range. Carrizo obviously bounced after a career effort (a 12-length win for $25,00) followed by an eight day turnaround when raised to $75,000. She did run second, but her number dropped considerably, and now she’s been asked to return quickly again, this time in 14 days. The daughter of Paynter is 2-1 on the morning line and certainly must be considered a contender, but we wonder which direction she’s currently headed. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Smoken Deb. 
RACE 11: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Mundaye Call; 3-Perfect Alibi; 7-Shippy 

Forecast: Mundaye Call was a beaten choice in her debut when nailed right on the money and enters the Spinaway S.-G1 as a maiden. She gets the worst of the draw, the barn hasn’t won a race during the season, and J. Ortiz, who was aboard in her first start, jumps ship to ride Risky Mischief. That said, this daughter of Into Mischief has a world of talent, and if she leaves cleanly from the rail she has a chance to lead every step of the way and pull off a major upset. Her recent workouts have been exceptional and indicate she’s ready to produce significant forward move. Shippy goes from the rail to the outside and the switch to the much more favorable post could make a world of difference to the daughter of Midshipman, who was so impressive in a nearly 11-length maiden win at Laurel Park but then missed at even money when a close third in the Schuylerville Stakes-G3 last month. This will be her third start with her third different trainer, but if she repeats the quality of her debut win she can be a strong threat. Perfect Alibi came from off the pace to win the Adirondack S.-G2 last month while giving every indication that she’ll enjoy this seven furlong trip. With enough help up front, the daughter of Sky Mesa will be heard from in the final furlong. 
RACE 12: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 2-Graded On a Curve 

Forecast: Graded On a Curve broke his maiden two runs back in nice fashion and then could have won his next start as well, but a roadblock inside the eighth pole cost him all chance, and the son of Noble Mission had to settle for fifth, beaten just over two lengths. Today, when facing essentially the same level of competition, the sophomore gelding can produce the last run under I. Ortiz, Jr., who stays aboard and hopefully will keep him in the clear. To finish out the day, we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.