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Saturday, October 5: Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

October 5, 2019

Two and three year-olds are the headliners competing in Sires Stakes-Grass Roots Finals at Woodbine Mohawk Park. James MacDonald led the pilots on Friday night with four wins and no trainer had more than one trip to the winner's circle. My focus will be on the 0.20 Early Pick 4 with a $50,000 guaranteed pool.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

4-American Virgin-This looks like a race with not much gate speed, so that sometimes works the opposite way and everyone leaves. If the pace is hot chances for success go up, has a favorable starting spot and should be a square price.
8-Midway Island-Drops and is one with some gate speed, was stung in last to a 26.1 quarter. Could be out and winging and should have a better chance at getting the top versus this crew. ML chalk is a threat in an interesting race.
9-Classic Pro-Steps-up after a nice try in first start off the bench and will use at 8-1 in the ML. Could show improvement in 2nd start on Lasix if Henry finds some cover and pace is hot.

Race 5

2-Day Delight-Has been facing tough competition, stays in the hunt, got an overdue win in last and fits here. Likes to race near the lead and is in a great spot to do so, could be taking another picture.
5-Delightful Terror-With this post draw JMac has some choices, has been used hard early in last two and it hasn't worked out. Could be looking at a different playbook tonight and can roll late with a good cover flow.
8-My Land-Honest horse is six for seven in the money at Wbsb and is versatile. Post will makes the price and best to respect connections.

Race 6

4-Royale Elite-Using instead of #6 the ML chalk, looking for more competition early for the lead. This colt could be sitting near the top in position to strike late at a square price.
7-Southwind Frost-Looking for more in the Final from this beaten odds-on favorite. Consistent player who has been first or second in six of last eight. A big threat with a snappy pace and live cover.

Race 7

4-Pedro Hanover-The McClure-Giles combo often comes ready to play and this looks like a value play. There is gate speed to the outside and if avoids being a long way back early could surprise at a big price.
6-Yacht Seelster-Like #4 it's best to respect the connections and if trying to find a good price play this is where to look. Finished 4th last time at this class but had missed a start, looking for better tonight.
8-Nirvana Seelster-Makes third start on Lasix for a barn that has a good batting average the last 30 days. Should be out and winging again, rolled to the 3/4 in 1.21.4 and faded. Could be tough if Henry finds one soft quarter.

My Ticket

Race 4) 4,8,9

Race 5) 2,5,8

Race 6) 4,7

Race 7) 4,6,8

Total Ticket Cost) $10.80 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia