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Monday, October 7: Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

October 7, 2019

Woodbine Mohawk Park has an Early Pick 4 with a $50,000 guaranteed pool set to begin as usual in Race 4. It's a competitive sequence and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

7-Family Sports (12-1)-Lasix hasn't worked yet, was claimed from Auciello and now Roy ends up between the pipes. All that said, this isn't a race full of all-stars and this guy had the speed to beat $20K claimers at the end of July. Last was better and this field isn't much different so will use at 12-1 in the ML.
9-Outlaw Gunpowder (5/2)-The post is a concern but comes off a win and form has been too good to overlook.
10-Flaherty (4-1)-Strong effort from the 8-hole after missing a start and now comes right back. Does have some gate speed so Filion can work a trip.

Race 5

1-Odds On Amethyst (8-1)-The 1-hole isn't much of an advantage and needs to find a smooth journey. But last was better and could take an overdue picture with another big effort.
2-On The Sly (8-1)-Makes first start back in the Moreau barn and he had success with this 7-year-old before. Comes off a nice win and could handle the step-up in class at a square price.
4-Bautista (7/2)-This is a soft spot and Filion knows well, should be tough to beat with a top effort and can capture an overdue win.
6-Meadowbranch Meadow (10-1)-Steps-up but fits with this crew. Jamieson in the bike and that is a ++ driver change. Makes third start off the bench and could be sitting on a big try.

Race 6

4-Head Turning Jag (5/2)-Steps-up after and easy score. Henry and this barn have clicked at 23%, best to respect chances for an encore.
6-She's Got Pizazz (6-1)-Has been facing a tough duo and fits better versus this crew. Might leave and get the top or the 2-hole, then chances go up at a square price.
9-Undercover Strike (3-1)-11-year-old is on a nice roll, comes off a win and makes first start in the Shepherd barn. JMac should be coming late, and pace could be quick enough, so he rolls by.

Race 7

7-Angers Bayama (3-1)-Has crushed foes in last two by at least 7 lengths and was pouring it on in the back half. Last win was in 50.4 and if repeats that performance it's probably picture time again.
8-Machpaperscissors (10-1)-Since coming off the bench last 3 have been sharp efforts. Jamieson could look to leave and try to duck behind #7 and make one big brush down the stretch.

My Ticket

Race 4) 7,9,10

Race 5) 1,2,4,6

Race 6) 4,6,9

Race 7) 7,8

Total Ticket Cost) $14.40 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia