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Friday, October 11: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 11, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Friday, October 11, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Mahi Mahi

Forecast: Mahi Mahi missed in a photo in a much improved effort when facing maiden $25,000 foes at Golden Gate Fields last month and this maiden $50,000 field isn’t much tougher, if at all. The 2-year-old son of Minister’s Wild Cat should produce another forward for the high-percentage J. Wong barn, which employs “go-to rider A. Cedillo (29% with this trainer) and based on his form up north he projects to be on or near the lead throughout. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Smiling to Excess; 2-Freedom Ride

Forecast: This five-runner starter optional claimer for 2-year-old fillies should boil down two main players. Smiling to Excess graduated by a pole when facing maiden $50,000 foes at Los Alamitos last month while earning a speed figure that, if repeated today, will make her tough to deny right back. The daughter of Smiling Tiger seems likely to be the controlling speed if she leaves cleanly from the rail, however, in her recent win she stalked and pounced, so that option is available if necessary. Freedom Ride isn’t as fast as ‘Excess on pure numbers but she’s finished in the frame in each of her last three starts, exits a pair of fast, highly-rated races, and certainly is eligible to improve. The daughter of Clubhouse Ride should be prominent from the start and have every chance.

RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Fravel; 2-Jetovator; 5-Cool Your Jets

Forecast: None of these older maidens are trustworthy but one of the three listed above is likely to win, so we’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise the race. Fravel has been a disappointment so far but with just two career starts on his resume the son of Unusual Heat may have a bit more room to improve than the others. Hopefully, the addition of blinkers combined with the good inside draw will put the R. Mandella-trained colt in the proper frame of mind to fire his best shot. Cool Your Jets is a 10-race maiden but will go with blinkers for the first time, and on the chance that the equipment change will move him just a little bit the S. Ruis-trained gelding is a “must use” in this turf miler for Cal-bred older horses. In the money in his last four, the 4-year-old gelding can win with just slight improvement but at 2-1 on the morning line probably won’t be offering much value. Jetovator was third over this course and distance in April while earning a competitive speed figure. With F. Prat aboard, the son of Grazen shouldn’t have any excuses.

RACE 4: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Rineshaft

Forecast: Rineshaft has yet to display any zip to his stick, but the lightly-raced son of Mineshaft exits a pair of much stronger races and this drop to the maiden $20,000 level combined with the addition of blinkers could easily make the winning difference. Based on a fractional projection the H. Palma-trained colt looks capable of establishing the pace and then getting brave at this abbreviated sprint trip of five and one-half furlongs. Let’s make him a straight play at or near his morning line of 5/2 and a rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Top Brass; 8-Rocko’s Wheel

Forecast: Top Brass has much in his favor and is strictly the one to beat at 2-1 on the morning line. The M. Glatt-trained gelding loves this track (he’s won three of five lifetime starts here), is in razor sharp form, having won three of his last five outings including a highly-rated race at Del Mar at this extended sprint distance in his most recent start, and is a strong fit on speed figures despite moving up in class. J. Talamo stays aboard and should have this son of Arch in mid-pack early and then rolling late. Rocko’s Wheel also qualifies on the horse-for-course angle (he’s a three time winner here) and from his comfortable outside post should be able to settle early and cut loose late. He’s not as fast as ‘Brass on pure numbers but has winning connections and can’t be counted out. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Top Brass.

RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Offshore; 5-Moonlight Drive

Forecast: Offshore returns to his winning level, is reunited with F. Prat, and is a strong fit on speed figurers in this $25,000 claiming turf miler for older horses. The R. Baltas-trained gelding likes to settle and produce a late kick, and there should be an ample amount of pace in here to compliment his style. Moonlight Drive has his issues but plenty of back class, and the Italian-bred stakes winner, second to Offshore when they squared off in early August at Del Mar, looms the one to fear most once again. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the son of Red Rocks projects to enjoy an ideal second-flight trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on into the lane. We’ll have extra tickets keying Offshore on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 7: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rick’s Dream; 5-Satanta; 6-Clem Labine

Forecast: This is a chaotic first-level allowance sprint for Cal-bred older horses and requires a spread. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Satanta threw in an absolute clunker when favored at this level at Del Mar in August but he continues to look good in the a.m. for J. Mullins so we’ll give him a chance to make amends. His debut score the previous month at Del Mar was visually pleasing; hopefully he can regain that form today. Clem Labine has never finished off the board in five career starts, most recently winding up a solid runner-up vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month. He’s a fit on speed figures and should be doing his best work from the quarter pole home. Rick’s Dream was claimed for just $12,500 last time out by R. Santana, who raises the gelding into the allowance ranks. Based strictly on speed figures, the son of Coil should be highly-competitive and if he can avoid trouble from the rail he’ll be dangerous at 8-1 on the morning line.

RACE 8: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 9-Heathers Grey

Forecast: Heathers Grey is improving with racing – her speed figures have risen with each of her five career starts – and with another forward move today the lightly-raced daughter of The Factor should be along in time. A recent sharp half mile main track workout indicates she’s doing quite well, and from her outside draw the M. McCarthy-trained 3-year-old filly should be able to settle in the second flight and then exert her superiority when it matters in the final furlong. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.