Log In

Friday, October 25: Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 25, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Kylemore; 3-Dukes Up

Forecast: The opener drew just five runners, two of which are main contenders. Dukes Up is in solid form and is being raised up to the $32,000 level in a sign of confidence. A. Cedillo stays aboard for M. Glatt and should have this hard-hitting gelding doing his best work from the quarter pole home. Kylemore projects as the controlling speed and if not policed may never look back. His career top speed figure – one that is more than good enough to win here – was accomplished two-turning over this main track earlier this year. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a very slight preference on top to Dukes Up.

RACE 2: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Elgofranco

Forecast: Elgofranco is an intriguing first-time starter in a state-bred turf sprint for juvenile fillies. Bred to win early and love turf, the daughter of Square Eddie has been given a solid foundation of morning workouts to have her fit and ready, and though her times aren’t fast she has done it the right way. With a clean break from the rail, she could be long gone so at 3-1 on the morning line let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden Melodie; 6-Tacocat

Forecast: Here’s another five-runner field, this one for maiden claiming 2-year-old fillies. Tacocat lands the cozy outside post while showing up in a seller for the first time for the Desormeaux brothers. She’s been a disappointment so far, but these appear to be well within her capabilities. Golden Melodie faded in a turf sprint vs. maiden special weight foes last time out but her two prior outings chart quite well with this group. She might be the quickest in the field and could get brave if she can shake loose early. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Tacocat on top.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Zipper Chipper

Forecast: Zipper Chipper failed to carry his speed over a distance of ground last time so he’s back sprinting again, this time we assume, for good. The son of City Zip has a distinct advantage in the speed figure department and can win on the front end or from a stalking position. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the B. Heap-trained colt may be too short to play in the straight pool but can be used as a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 8-Nietzsche

Forecast: Nietzche is comfortably drawn outside, adds blinkers for the first time, and looks much the best of the known element. The V. Belvoir-trained gelding should display improved tactical speed and possibly be on or near the lead throughout, assuming he leaves cleanly for the first time after two prior outings with rugged starts. The danger comes from any one of four first times starters that may, or may not, be able to run some. Let’s take a stand and use this grey gelding as a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 5/2.

RACE 6: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use:2-Volubile; 8-Harmon

Forecast: Volubile has much going for him and at 4-1 on the morning line offers value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play;. The G. Mandella-trained gelding exits a tougher, highly-rated starter’s allowance miler against older foes and today shows up in a $50,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds. He’s also back at his “win distance” of nine furlongs, and after earning a career top speed figure in his most recently outing the lightly-raced son of More Than Ready seems primed for another forward move. Harmon is worth including as a saver. Back from the Bay Area where he recently won a first-level allowance all-weather affair, the P. Gallagher-trained gelding picks up F. Prat and looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types.

RACE 7: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Hard Not to Love; 5-Anuket

Forecast: Anuket returned better than she left when winning a first-level allowance race here earlier this month with a stakes-quality speed figure. The concern is the quick turnaround – she’s back in 19 days – but if she doesn’t bounce the B. Baffert-trained filly will be hard to beat at 4/5 on the morning line. Hard Not Love has trained like she’s fit and ready for her first start since May, and since the daughter of Hard Spun won her debut we know she can fire fresh. Nowhere near as fast on speed figures as the favorite, she nevertheless deserves a little bit of a look in case Anuket fails to show her best.

RACE 8: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-An American Jet; 7-Dubnation; 10-Norsk

Forecast: We’ll spread the nightcap, a bottom-rung maiden claiming extended sprint with a few possibilities. Norsk is drawn nicely outside, adds blinkers for the first time, and drops to his lowest level ever. The H. Palma-trained gelding is a one-paced grinder but has numbers that fit and should draft into a nice, in-the-clear, second level position and have every chance from there. Dubnation also is dropping to the bottom for the first time after burning money as the odds-on favorite in a state-bred maiden $50,000 affair at Los Alamitos last month. He has back numbers that make him dangerous but at this stage he’s probably not one to trust. An American Jet is another recent beaten choice – he was second at 9/5 in a similar affair earlier this month – but shows a bullet blowout since raced and really won’t have to improve much to earn his diploma.