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Saturday, October 26: Breeders Crown Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

October 26, 2019

There's a huge night of Breeders Crown racing set to roll at Woodbine Mohawk Park and once again there is an Xpressbet promotion that can save you money. Xpressbet account holders who register will get up to a $10 refund for a win bet in Breeders Crown races 2-9 if their horse finishes in the money but doesn't win.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 2

3-Caviart Ally (9/5)-Looking for an upset by a filly that has been chasing the great Shartin all year until beating her on 10/6 at the Red Mile. Comes into this race sharp, actually has been better since September and gets my vote.
1-Shartin N (4/5)-Most will have this champion as their top choice and if she is at her best it will probably be another trip to the winner's circle.
4-Youaremycandygirl (6-1)-Racing well versus older, should be in the mix and could add some pop to the gimmicks.

Race 3

4-Manchego (7/5)-This great mare has been super sharp for over two-months. I can't go against after watching her steam roll the field from the 8-hole last week.
3-Plunge Blue Chip (9/5)-This is a top mare who has been overshadowed by #7 but always gives an honest effort and will expect the same tonight.
6-Hannelore Hanover (10-1)-7-year-old isn't as consistent as in her younger days but winner of >$3 million can hit the board with a top effort and is worth using underneath.

Race 4

1-The Ice Dutchess (2-1)-Comes off a confident win in her elimination race and was parked through the first turn, top choice should enjoy starting from the rail.
6-Winndevie (5-1)-Interesting play who came the last half in 54.1 and looked strong going under the wire. That was the 3rd straight from the 8-hole and can be forwardly placed from the start. Vesrsatile filly can win this and will be using in gimmicks.
3-Asiago (9/2)-Rallied nicely last week and might have more to offer. Using and will leave the 9/5 ML chalk off the ticket. When Dovescry could rebound, but did drift out down the stretch last week.

Race 5

5-Warrawee Ubeaut (4/5)-Sweet Lou filly has been on top of her game all year. Looks to be the one to beat and this post helps her chances.
4-Tall Drink Hanover (5-1)-Followed #5 around the track in a tune-up for tonight's showdown. Not out of this but will need very best to take top honors.
1-Beautyonthebeach (8-1)-This mare likes to leave and this post suits. Did race tough from the 10-hole last week. McNair should keep her alive down the lane and could add some juice to the gimmicks.

Race 6

2-Jimmy Freight (4-1)-14 of 15 in the money at Mohawk with 8 pictures and a very good post draw makes this local favorite my top choice by a narrow margin.
7-Dorsoduro Hanover (6-1)-Racing well, worth a good swing if goes off at close to 6-1 and speed is holding. Using on top and in gimmicks.
8-McWicked (5/2)-One of my all-time favorites will be looking for third straight picture and probably will be coming off cover. There could be a crazy fast pace and that helps chances because Sears should be rolling late.

Race 7

4-Greenshoe (3/5)-Has been almost flawless and should be a clean trip a way from win #11 in 13 starts.
8-Forbidden Trade (10-1)-Hambo winner was the last to beat Greenshoe, it was by a neck back on 8/3. It's not impossible for it to happen again but post draw makes it a bigger challenge. That said, is 13 of 16 at Wbsb and should be in a line for a big piece of this purse.
2-Dont Letem (4-1)-Second ML chalk should be in the mix to hit the bottom of the ticket if minds manners.

Race 8

5-Bettors Wish (9/5)-This is another contest where the favorite has been almost flawless. Has 12 wins with 4 second place finishes in 16 starts and should be in line for picture #13.
4-Dancin Lou (4-1)-McCarthy had a nice Friday night and he should have this colt in line for a smooth trip. It would be a surprise if gets top honors but looks a shade better than the rest.
1-Southwind Ozzi (7/2)-Ozzi likes to win and is 2nd time Lasix tonight. Sears should keep in contention from the rail but usually does best work on smaller ovals.

Race 9

10-Six Pack (9/2)-Post makes the price and has the gate speed to get a good seat. Last outing was at Lexington and it was the most impressive start of the season. This is a tough race but can beat these at a square price with a decent trip.
5-Guardian Angel As (7/2)-Winner in 2 of 4 at Mohawk, Tetrick should work a good trip from this spot and figures to be a major player.
7-Lindy The Great (3-1)-Lost to Six Pack at the Red Mile but before that was a winner in 5 straight. Winner of 6 in 9 tries at Wbsb. Roy should be blasting out to get on the engine and might be good enough to not look back.

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia