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Sunday, October 27: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 27, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Incredibly Lucky

Forecast: It’s hard to get past Incredibly Lucky in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Second in a similar spot earlier this month when well clear of the others while earning a career top speed figure, the W. Spawr-trained filly is lightly-raced with further improvement in her and needs only to avoid trouble from the rail to handle this task. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Y Not Sizzle; 3-Dulverton Darling

Forecast: Dulverton Darling acts like she’ll enjoy nine furlongs and gets her first chance at this longer trip in a soft maiden claimer for $50,000 fillies and mares. A repeat of her last race – a closing third at a mile without much help up front, probably will be good enough to beat this group, Y Not Sizzle shows up in a claimer for the first time and should appreciate the class drop. She’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw and seems likely to settle in behind the leaders and then have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Dulverton Darling.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Auberge

Forecast: Auberge has trained like she’s fit and ready for B. Baffert and this barn’s win percentage with debut runners this year (41%) has been nothing short of spectacular. The daughter of Palace brought $570,000 at the Timonium May sale and has done everything right in the morning since arriving locally. She’s 2-1 on the morning line (and possibly will go lower) so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-K P All Systems Go; 7-Media Blitz; 8-Governance

Forecast: We’ll spread this maiden special weight turf miler for juveniles in rolling exotic play and then press using extra tickets keying K P All Systems Go. The More Than Ready colt was given a run in his recent debut, finishing mostly on his own courage when winding up fifth, beaten less than two lengths. He’ll get serious today with M. Smith riding him back from a nice inside draw at 5-1 on the morning line. Media Blitz was nosed out in his debut at Del Mar despite a slow start and a wide trip and is strictly the one to beat. Similar to K P All Systems Go, there’s no reason he shouldn’t improve with that valuable experience behind him. Governance, a solid third in his last two outings, isn’t particular fast on speed figures but at least he’s improving with racing. A. Cedillo stays aboard for R. Baltas and should have this son of Fed Biz within striking range throughout.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Message; 6-Uno Trouble Maker; 7-Persepolis

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in this contentious first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares while giving the improving Persepolis preference on top. Drawn comfortably outside and with enough speed to prompt or press the pace throughout, the R. Mandella-trained filly looked good breaking her maiden at Los Alamitos in just her third career start, and with another forward move today should be capable of scoring right back despite the class hike. Uno Trouble Maker has won six races during her career, each one over the Santa Anita main track. Freshened since Del Mar and dropping realistically in class, the daughter of Successful Appeal could be hard to catch if she can shake loose early. Message has a fast figure over this track last summer to go back to for B. Baffert and recent workouts indicate the daughter of Warrior’s Reward is rounding back to her best. Rail and all, she has to be included somewhere.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Perfectly Majestic; 7-Winning Element

Forecast: Perfectly Majestic drops sharply in class for P. Miller, and if he has at least one good one left the veteran gelding should be tough to beat in this league. From the rail the son of Majesticperfection should settle into a ground-saving position in mid-pack and then have his chance to wear down the leaders when the time is right. Winning Element was beaten a head at this level in his recent comeback and if he can run back to that race today he’ll be right in the thick of things again. The D. O’Neill-barn is solid with second-off-layoff runners and this shortening in trip from nine furlongs to a flat mile shouldn’t be an issue for the son of City Zip, who has a previous win over this course and distance against tougher goes last year. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Perfectly Majestic on top.

RACE 7: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Oliver; 5-Two Thirty Five

Forecast: Oliver continues to improve with each outing – his Beyer speed figures have risen in each of his last seven outing – and with another forward move today the son of Papa Clem can stretch his winning streak to three. He has the option of going to the lead from his inside post or settling and stalking. Two Thirty Five has won three of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track and figures to fire another big shot again after winning the listed Brubaker Stakes at Del Mar. The task won’t be easy – he’s picking up 6 lbs. – but the son of Stay Thirsty is a tough gelding who always gives his best. We’ll prefer Oliver on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 8: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Miss Hot Legs; 5-Stealthediamonds

Forecast: Stealthediamonds returns to the claiming ranks and seems set to regain her winning form after being in too tough in the listed Unzip Me Stakes over this course and distance last month. The daughter of Unusual Heat does her best running on the lead and appears to have found a race with a favorable pace scenario. Miss Hot Legs removes blinkers after racing with the hood in her last start without much success. She switches to A. Cedillo and should enjoy an ideal, second flight, ground-saving trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Stealthediamonds on top.