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Sunday, November 24: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

November 24, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

Today’s Day Makers: View Video

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Stealthediamonds; 2-Kentan Road

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this five-furlong turf sprint for second level allowance fillies and mares. Stealthediamonds, a recent $80,000 claim by M. Puype, was a sharp winner in her only prior outing over this course and distance during the summer meeting, a race that earned her a career top speed figure. She’s always been pretty much a need-the-lead type and with Kentan Road (who might be tad quicker) breaking right alongside, the daughter Unusual Heat may have to employ stalking or pressing tactics. In the frame in 11 of 15 career starts, she’s thoroughly genuine and consistent, and it will be interesting to see if she can adjust her style successfully. Kentan Road has been in front at the first call in each of her last seven starts and won’t be waiting around for anybody. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the J. Sadler-trained mare was pitched too high in the Ken Maddy S.-G3 and faded late under pressure, but at this level she should be able to stick around a long time. We’ll give Stealthediamonds a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 9-Imperator

Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint so let’s try the sneaky Bay Area shipper, Imperator, on top. The son of Elusive Warning has done some good work in the a.m. over the all-weather Golden Gate Fields surface and we doubt trainer R. Amescua would have vanned him 500 mile south if he didn’t think he could compete on this circuit (there are plenty of similar opportunities on his home track). The barn’s go-to rider (A. Gryder) takes the call, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single in what amounts to slightly more than an educated guess.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Excellent Sunset; 3-Maxim Rate; 4-Don’t Blame Judy

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for second level allowance fillies and mares over a mile on grass. We’ll go three-deep but if you find the need to spread even more, go right ahead. Excellent Sunset adds blinkers for the first time while seeking her first win since she finished first but was disqualified over this course and distance more than a year ago. Third beaten a head in her most recent start in listed stakes company, the Irish-bred mare will leave from a good inside post while retaining F. Prat and is the logical favorite at 8/5 on the morning line. But she’s been beaten twice in her last three starts as a heavy favorite, so she’s probably not trustworthy. Maxim Rate may offer better wagering value at 5-1 on the morning line. She also will be racing with blinkers for the first time in her career and will appreciate the class drop, having competed in graded stakes races in every start since breaking her maiden in her debut earlier this year. The S. Callaghan-trained filly should be rolling in the final furlong. Don’t Blame Judy has a prior win over the Del Mar turf course and is fast on figures. On her best day, she’s right there.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Win Often; 5-Biddy Duke

Forecast: Win Often was a clever debut winner with a nice speed figure last month at Santa Anita while competing for a $50,000 tag and is protected today in this starter’s allowance sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Vronsky seems to be made of the right stuff and with expected improvement could score right back in this competitive affair. Biddy Duke has been badly overmatched in her last pair but if her confidence hasn’t been diminished she certainly can act in this much more realistic spot. A nearly six length maiden claiming winner over the Del Mar strip in late August, the daughter of Bayern may be the quickest in the field and could get brave if she can establish a clear early lead. Let’s go with Win Often on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Shandling

Forecast: This maiden turf sprint should be Shandling’s show. The son of Distorted Humor was shuffled back soon after the start and lost position but then rallied strongly to be second in a promising debut vs. similar last month at Santa Anita., With better racing luck today, the P. D’Amato-trained colt should be able to handle this assignment in a field lacking in depth, so at 8/5 on the morning line he’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 8-Gate Speed; 10-Next Gen

Forecast: Next Gen graduated in sharp style with a good speed figure in just his second career start last May and was promptly claimed by J. Sadler. The Super Saver colt makes his first start since and is protected in this starter’s allowance race, so we’ll assume he remains well-liked by his connections. The workouts – including a bullet gate drill (fastest of 30) last week at Santa Anita - indicate he’s fit and ready, so with F. Prat riding him back let’s use him strongly both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Gate Speed also is worth including somewhere on your ticket. The M. Glatt-trained gelding ran away and hid from a maiden $40,000 group last time out and did so with a monster speed figure. If he can repeat that type of performance again, he’ll be dangerous.

RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Red King; 2-Crystal Tribe; 5-Buckstopper Kit

Forecast: This mini marathon has a number of possibilities in an evenly matched affair. Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Crystal Tribe lost early position and appeared a tad erratic through the lane yet was beaten just over two lengths in a similar event earlier this month at Santa Anita. The long-fused Irish-bred colt gets an extra furlong to work with today, and if he moves forward at all the J. Mullins-trained colt could pull off a mild surprise. D. Van Dyke knows him well and stays aboard. Buckstopper Kit, third in the same race Crystal Tribe exits, is a two-time winner over the Del Mar turf course and in a galloper’s race may inherit the role as the controlling speed. He’s reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo and at 9/2 on the morning line is a “must use.” Red King, in the frame in his last three starts and nosed out over this course and distance in late August, has trained steadily of late and should be set for another typical honest effort. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and is solid in the speed figure department, but if there is a concern it’s that he’s winless in seven previous outings over the Del Mar lawn.

RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ultimate Bango; 3-Fashionably Fast; 5-Oliver

Forecast: Oliver dislikes this Santa Anita main track but at Del Mar it’s a whole different story. The son of Papa Clem turns back to an extended sprint, switches to A. Cedillo, and projects to enjoy a perfect pace-stalking trip outside. Fashionably Fast, the morning line favorite at 8/5, seeks his fourth consecutive win, two of which were accomplished over the Del Mar main track. Oliver is a tad faster on pure numbers, but this son of Lucky Pulpit continues to improve and has the perfect pressing style for this seven-furlong trip. Ultimate Bango was visually very impressive beating a lesser field on grass last time out, a race that produced a career top speed figure. Today he must show he can be just as effective on dirt, and after drawing the rail his task was made tougher, but we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Push Through; 4-Cono; 8-Perfect Wager

Forecast: The nightcap is a total mess, a state-bred grass miler that we find inscrutable. The three listed above should run well, but none are what you’d call trustworthy. Push Through likes to finish second or third more than he likes to win, but after being freshened since late August the San Luis Rey Downs-based gelding – who has a history of running his best fresh – could be set for a major effort. In the money in his last two and a prior winner over the local lawn, the son of Square Eddie has good tactical speed and should have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home under regular pilot M. Gutierrez. Cono lacks a winning punch but did finish second in a similar affair at Santa Anita last month while earning a career top speed figure. If he can repeat that effort today he’ll be right there. Perfect Wager, third in that same race, does his best running when held up early and allowed to run late. With a decent pace to compliment his style, the J. Mullins-trained gelding might make some noise in the final furlong.