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Friday, December 6: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

December 6, 2019

Cal Expo has a 12-race card set to kick-off the weekend. The feature comes in Race 9, the Alan Horowitz Final with a $20,000 purse. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 8, it has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

4-Coz And Effect (7/2)-Come off a tough trip, draws inside and can be forwardly placed from here. Kennedy should put in play early and that improves chances.
6-Heza Real Diamond (3-1)-3-year-old should like the company and is a player if ready off the bench. Short price most likely and this is the 32nd start of the year. This isn't the most formful race so will respect chances.
7-Senga Nitro (6-1)-Will string along as steps-up again after 2 sharp wins. Best to respect chances for a 3-peat.
8-Five Card Draw N (6-1)-Hasn't raced since 9/8 but qualifier was good. If 10-year-old is ready to go this is a soft spot and should be a decent price.

Race 9

1-Deweydiddonegood (5/2)-Loses Roland but Svendsen has steered before and last 3 have been strong efforts. Draws the rail and the inside starting spot may be enough to take top honors.
5-Mystic Ruler (8-1)-Interesting play, has won over 25% of lifetime starts but 7-year-old has never taken a picture at the Pomp. Seems worthy of a swing and could be overlooked at the windows.
7-Al's Brief (3-1)-Strong efforts in last 3 and has been bet. Looks like a major player again and will likely be a short price.

Race 10

1-Villa For Rent (6-1)-Has lacked a closing punch since coming back to CalX. But last was better and could be in line for a ground saving trip at a nice price.
2-Joker John (6-1)-2nd time Lasix and gets post relief. Roland could trip out here and sweep by late.
3-Na Na Na Baatman (5-1)-Longo trainee flattened out after going 1st over. Could take a picture in an open race but will need a good trip.
8-Lodi Eat My Dust (6-1)-Last start was in the slop and looking for an aggressive steer in 3rd start off the bench. Not much gate speed in here and this guy does good work on the engine.

Race 11

2-Tiyaga (5/2)-Program chalk raced better in the slop last time and has no excuses tonight. Draws well and fits with this crew.
4-Therealgoods (6-1)-Was used aggressively in the slop and faded, but is only 1-14 on an off track. Could be sitting on a big try at a square price. Has the gate speed to get on the engine or a 2-hole trip behind #7.
7-Cenalta Dragster (7/2)-Winner of last 2 starts at this level and is too sharp to leave out. Plano should have him forwardly placed early on.

My Ticket

Race 8) 4,6,7,8

Race 9) 1,5,7

Race 10) 1,2,3,8

Race 11) 2,4,7

Total Ticket Cost) $28.80 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia