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December 27: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

December 27, 2019

Cal Expo has a 12-race card set to roll with the feature coming in Race 5, an Open Pace with a $7,200 purse. My focus will be on the 0.20 Pick 4 which begins in Race 8. That sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

1-Surprisingly Sweet (8-1)-Veteran has taken many pictures at this track and fits better versus this crew. Draws the rail which should help, and last two trips haven't been great. Looking for more at a nice price.
5-No Guarantees (2-1)-Program chalk was Kennedy's choice and has been tossing hints. Can't dismiss, but with a 1-24 record in '19 at this price, will look to others with more value.
7-Bettor Lady (6-1)-Has been off since 8-31 but qualifier was okay, and this gal loves the track. Has won >33% of CalX starts and if fires hot off the bench could add to that total at a square price.
9-Kiss On The Lips (8-1)-Looking for a price and this mare has some gate speed. Should like the company could be rolling late if Longo can work a decent trip.

Race 9

2-Burntisland Billy (8-1)-Doesn't win very often but this is a field that can be beat and lands Kennedy for 1st start of this meet. Should be a decent price in a race without a true standout.
3-Panedictine (2-1)-Drops again looking for a win and this could be a spot to shine but not convinced.
4-General Time (4-1)-2nd ML chalk is 0-39 and that should tell you something about this field. Drops like #3 and could find some life in 3rd start for new barn but is 0-39 at CalX.
6-Major Jesse (6-1)-Loses Wiseman but the change to Roberts shouldn't hurt and may help the price. 5-year-old is camera shy and isn't alone but may have more gas left in the tank than others.

Race 10

2-Along Came Jane (6-1)-Drops to a soft spot after racing in the slop in last 2 starts. Gets a positive driver change as Plano takes a seat and he has been rolling. Looking for better at a square price.
3-Alwaysalittlemore ( 3-1)-Lukewarm ML chalk raced well to get a 3rd place check over #2 and was off 2-weeks before that start. Has only one win in 2019 but looks like a player, has been facing stronger competition.

Race 11

1-Red Star Tiger (12-1)-This seems like a race to shoot for a price and here is my swing. Looking for a more aggressive try for new pilot. 11-year-old has done his sharing of winning (9-37) this year and can pass foes down the lane.
2-Smoke Rings (7/2)-Plested trainee battled to take a picture in last start. Best to not overlook, defeated #3 and #4 in last and should be in line for a good trip tonight.
4-Best Dream Seeker (4-1)-Only 1-40 this year but is a use versus this field. Went off at 29-1 in last and that won't happen but should offer a fair price. Will use instead of #3, the program chalk.

0.20 Pick 4

Total Bet=$19.20

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