Log In

Friday, January 10: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

January 10, 2020

The feature at Cal Expo goes in Race 3, a Fillies and Mares Open Pace with a $6,700 purse. The highlight from a betting standpoint is the 0.20 Pick 4 which has a $30,000 guaranteed pool. That sequence starts in Race 8, it has a 16% takeout and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

4-Hi Fidelity (9/2)-Has been having trouble finishing off miles but now faces easier company. Plano's choice and he can get on the engine and maybe steal a quarter.
5-Velocity Layla (8-1)-Makes 2nd start for new barn in a race without much form. Using this longshot and hoping Lackey saves some ground and can pace through to the wire.
6-Dontcloseyoureyes (6-1)-Fits well here and has been racing on wet tracks with a 1-23 record. Looking for some improvement on a fast track and could take a picture at a square price.
7-Getter Queen Flush (4-1)-Steps-up after a nice win despite a tough trip. This mare likes the track, Svendsen could catch a live cover flow and rally for an encore.

Race 9

5-Ethan Hanover (15-1)-Needs a good steer and could leave or find some cover from this post. Should be in the mix with a good trip at a nice price.
6-Rocknroll Jewel (4-1)-Big try from the 10-hole following a rare win. Will probably leave again and could get a good early seat. Best to respect Magee's choice.
8-Gunny Wilson (5/2)-Usually comes up short but is in good form and has the speed to beat this crew. This post is a challenge but helps the price.

Race 10

2-Imma Tank (5-1)-Last was better on a dry track. Could be sitting on a big try if the track rates fast tonight. Previous 3 starts were on an off-track and is 0-14 on that type of surface.
3-Dontdoubtthelakers (3-1)-Drops to the lowest level of the meet after last 5 starts have been on good or sloppy tracks. Plano's choice over #1 and #2 looks like a player.
6-Murder Mystery (15-1)-Will take a swing for a price. Comes off a good effort from the 8-hole and will look for more of the same. Closed well last week and tonight the pace could be quicker which will help chances with a good steer.

Race 11

3-Adios Amigos (2-1)-Makes 3rd start for Lackey, offers no value at a 2-1 ML but could be a drop and pop situation. This feels like a spot for an overdue picture so will respect versus this bunch.
5-Winonefordoug (7/2)-Old-timer doesn't win often period. But on an off-track he is 0-39 and that has been the case in the last 3. Svendsen drives again and he has been more aggressive in last 2 starts and should be in the hunt.
6-Burntisland Billy (4-1)-Makes 3rd start for new trainer and has been forwardly placed on off-tracks in last 2. Looking for a better finish on a dry surface versus a suspect crew.

My Ticket

Race 8) 4,5,6,7

Race 9) 5,6,8

Race 10) 2,3,6

Race 11) 3,5,6

Total Ticket Cost) $21.60 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia